Posted on 08/23/2011 2:22:52 PM PDT by Kaslin
If you are long gold, remember pigs get slaughtered.
I know all the reasons to be long gold. Fear. Countries are debasing their currencies. But does your local grocery store have a scale and an up to the minute $GLD ticker so that you can actually use it? You can convert gold holdings to cash, but the transaction costs need to be added in to see your real return on investment. You also won’t want to convert to cash in a hyperinflation environment which seems to be one of the strongest reasons I get for buying gold.
If you are a trader, I can see entering the market and playing momentum to make a few ticks. However, if you are the average Joe, keep your feet out of the water. The sharks will bite, and bite hard. You are going to pay up to get into this market, and you will sell down to get out.
SPDR Gold Trust ETF Price Stock Chart by YCharts
This reminds me of a lot of markets that begin to feed on themselves. You can call it the greater fool theory, or a bubble, but when they turn, they turn HARD.
The door is considerably smaller on the way out than it was on the way in.
I haven’t bought gold ever. Haven’t sold it either. To me it’s just an indicator. Lately, if the stock market rallies and gold rallies hard, I know to start selling S&P’s ($SPY, $ES_F). Gold rallying shows me that there is a considerable amount of fear in the market. Fear doesn’t bring stock market rallies.
But I find that there are reasons to be positive about the stock market, even on banks. Banks are carrying more capital than they did in 2008. The EU is going to work out the problems it has. While the US is poised for really slow growth, most of our financial issues are not going to hit until 2015-and we will have an election that sorts them out before then. Insiders are buying stock. When executives actually put their own capital at risk in their companies, that means something. Buybacks mean nothing. Multinational corporate balance sheets are healthy.
For average Joe’s-take this opportunity to invest in a fund that replicates the S&P. In twenty years you won’t be sorry.
For the first time ever, I am looking at buying some puts in Gold. I love to fade parabolic moves and this one looks like a classic one.
This material is provided for informational purposes only, as of the date hereof, and is subject to change without notice. This material may not be suitable for all investors and is not intended to be an offer, or the solicitation of any offer, to buy or sell any securities.
That’s the way I learned it. Wait a minute . . Cramers on . . gotta go.
Properly packaged lead and brass is a much handier investment...
Gold has a long journey ahead of it, but of course it is never straight up for long.
It’s gotten ahead of itself lately and must consolidate down around the red moving
average line before another stable advance occurs. When it corrects, it is likely
another buying opportunity.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p35284402856
Just an opinion, fyi. Make your own decisions.
“”The gold holders will flock to the milk and bread producers. Who sets the value of gold when this happens?””
The gold holders who will not only own the gold, they will also own the milk and bread producers.
The Golden Rule: “He who has the gold makes the rules.”
Don’t forget the TP !!
:)
lol—good one! A lady might pay more for that than chocolate!
This guy is a moron.....do you really believe that when the dollar colapses the supermarket will be open doing business as usual????? At what point will this idiot get it? QE3...QE4.....QE5????
Silver Gold and Lead....
The Golden Rule: He that owns the gold, makes the rules.
The Ammo hoarder’s corrolary: The guy with the guns and ammo, get’s the gold and women from the dead guy.
You want to diversify your barter items:
Batteries, esp re-chargable ones with solar chargers.
Simple stuff they may not ever make again, like zip lock bags, aluminum foil, nails and screws and nuts and bolts, wire and rope and chain, matches (easy to long-term waterproof them).
Heirloom seeds for staples like corn and beans (and you can renew your supply each year).
Ammo and a whole lot of it.
The threats he mentioned to gold ownership are why gold owners should both investigate and advocate a legal alternative currency to the dollar called scrip.
Scrip is a tightly controlled non-legal tender currency that can do something the dollar may not be able to do: make change for gold.
With scrip, its value and the price of merchandise of any kind that can be purchased with scrip, are fixed, no matter what the dollar does. This has a very strong stabilizing effect on local markets and governments. With any changes in value happening only in, for example, monthly intervals.
Not minute by minute, which is what can happen if there is dollar hyperinflation.
Best of all, in a scrip system, gold is just another product, which is a very, very good thing if you have gold. The last thing that gold owners want is for gold to be so priceless that it is worthless. That nobody can make change for it. This is a disaster, as far as gold owners are concerned.
Convertability, to something, or somethings, or anything, is essential.
I beleive the saying is “Pigs get fat and hogs get slaughtered”.
‘The Bears make money, the Bulls make money, but the Pigs go broke.’
—Old Wall Street adage
Unless someone has huge amounts of money, there is no use for gold. I can see if you have millions, and need a way to preserve it, you’d put some in gold. But for everyday life, it’s pretty useless. I can think of plenty of things I’d be trading for in an apocalyptic scenario. Yellow metal ain’t one of em.
If you do the math, 1 troy ounce = 31.1g / .1g = 311 loaves of bread for 1 ounce of gold. In America at the time, you could have bought about 380 loaves at $2.50 a loaf.
Today, gold is a little over $1,800 an ounce. A loaf of bread were I live is about $3 at Walmart (nothing fancy). So $1,800 / $3 = 600 loaves of bread.
I conclude that the value of gold compared to dollars as well as bread has almost doubled since 2009.
What happens if we have a pole flip and digital bits representing wealth are tied up for a while?
I know what I won't be doing. I won't be looking to acquire useless yellow metal.
The ones making out right now are the ones SELLING gold, not buying. Buying at record highs, generally speaking, is a bad strategy.
Being a gambler, I'm going for a few bank stocks versus gold right now.
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