Hurricane Irene [Now at Cat 3]

NHC/NOAA ^ | 20 August 2011 | NHC/NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Tropical Storm Irene has developed from Invest 97 in the Western Atlantic Ocean, east of the Leeward Islands.

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[Gabz]

Thanks, we’re paying close attention.

[Gabz]

I would rather there be over hype than an ignoring of the potential problem. there are far too many people that don’t have enough common sense to come in out of the rain and that is the audience to whom what you call hype is directed.

Even if it stays 200 miles off the coast, the potential for severe problems is not something to sneeze about. I am of the school of thought that too much info is far better than not enough. Your mileage may vary.

[Jim Noble]

I live in Central NH 40 mi NNE Concord 15 mi from the Maine line, 50 air line miles from the Gulf of Maine.

I have too many big trees close to the house (hemlocks) that local EPA is protecting. The roots are shallow, the soil is sandy and kinda wet right now. If eye tracks East of me, strongest winds will be NE to NNE, moving to NW on the back side. Is that right?

I’m thinking of bugging out (trees on the house) if forecast is >100 mph sustained.

[Lovely-Day-For-A-Guinness]

It may be that the December ice storm of 2008, where we were without electricity for 8+ days, and no telephone for 2 weeks, is still fresh in my mind, so please forgive me for taking this storm seriously.

We hill folk in central Massachusetts know what inches of rain in a short time can do to the quaint streams that abound here.

Most New Englanders live in the woods, and with trees in full leaf being blown by high winds, it can become nasty real quick here. A web search of New England hurricanes might give you an idea what can happen here.

Thanks for trying to temper my concern, I hope for our sake that you're right.

[dirtboy]

but right now, I see the eye moving well east of the I-95 corridor and while there will be some wind, rain, and a measurable storm surge, the real impact will be about the same as a nor’easter at worse and in most places, no worse than the non-tropical soaker that we had a few days ago.

That post is so ignorant I don't know where to begin. The last time we had a strong tropical system come into PA (Isabel), the power outages were significant and a lot of roads were shut down for a bit because of fallen limbs.

If the forecast track holds, eastern Long Island and Providence are going to get hit hard and just about all of MA east of the track of the eye will lose power (i.e., possibly the Boston area). You might want to read up on Hurricane Bob and the Long Island Express to see what a hurricane can do in this region.

At this point, we just don't know where it will go. But folks right now are starting to decide if they should make additional preparations - by looking at the model trends and the uncertainty factors. Your ignorant bloviating on this thread is no help to them.

[dirtboy]

I am getting a bit more concerned about this storm. I look at the forecast trend, not just one forecast track. Over the past 36 hours or so, the trend has been steadily shifting the track eastwards. But this is from the 5pm Irene discussion:

Between 72 and 96 hours...there remains uncertainty as to whether Irene turns back toward the north ahead of a mid-latitude trough moving into the Great Lakes region at that time. The new ECMWF shows much more amplification of the trough... which has resulted in its track shifting over 100 miles to the west...and this skillful long-range model now defines the western edge of the guidance envelope. Overall...the guidance envelope has shifted a little westward at days 4 and 5.

So the trend has at least stopped if not shifted back to the west. Not good.

[don-o]

My point is that that the major news organizations and their local affiliates have a history of acting like the "boy who cried wolf" in order to drive up ratings

Some of us choose to not even have a television and are thus spared from the torture which you obviously inflict upon yourself.

The internet is a wonderful for self selecting exactly what I wish to learn about. I highly recommend it.

[NautiNurse]

You appear to have the wind direction correct for a counterclockwise rotation moving NE, approaching from SSE. LOL--my head is spinning thinking about it.

Since we don't have basements in Florida (a basement would have to be a submarine here), I would bug out with big trees close to the house before winds reached 100 mph. Unless you are in a flood plain, if you have a basement, it might be a good place to hunker down. Whatever you decide, your good judgment will prevail.

[fatima]

I am in Bucks County Pa but we have a shore place in Ocean City NJ.We are 2 blocks from the beach.

[NautiNurse]

Thanks for posting that discussion excerpt. I seem to remember a central GOM storm a few years ago where NHC appeared to be accommodating for the usual eastward model trend. In the end, it required pulling back westward--substantially.

There are still a few days to watch the progression and prepare as forecast changes dictate. Please try not to think of the worst case scenario for the whole Eastern Seaboard now. That's downright overwhelming.

[dirtboy]

By this time tomorrow we'll be within a much tighter range of accuracy for forecast tracks.

I am SO hoping this sucker stays well away from the Philly area.

[alarm rider]

Not as bad as the DC news poodle that yesterday, continued to pronounce “earthquake” as earthcake”.

[NautiNurse]

Not as bad as the DC news poodle that yesterday, continued to pronounce “earthquake” as earthcake”.

OMG--sorry I missed it--LOL! Today, FOX News chick was flummoxed by Ocracoke Island. Said Ocracokee, then asked for help.

[rodguy911]

Hi NN. Winds picking up a little here 20-25 knots but Fowey Buoy off Miami shows 38 knots tomorrow with higher gusts. Then it heads North. Baltimore Canyon has some ominous predictions of 80 knot winds with 100 knots near the eye for the weekend with seas to 42 feet during the storm.

I cant believe some are going to ride it out on ocracoke island,really dumb.

[rodguy911]

Any word on forward speed estimates over the next 96 hours?

[dirtboy]

LOL! Today, FOX News chick was flummoxed by Ocracoke Island.

Nothing can ever hold a candle to Vivian Brown on the Weather Channel trying to say 'Typhoon Longwang' while keeping a straight face.

[Guenevere]

Shifting back to the west....that has been my fear.

And we're not ready.

[NautiNurse]

Thanks for the local update. Not surprised to learn of Ocracoke Island holdouts. For every hurricane, there is a group of fools flirting with disaster.

[dirtboy]

That really hasn't changed much from what I can see from watching the forecast tracks over the last couple of days.

The wildcard is just where Irene will make landfall on the East Coast.