Not quite. It really depends on if the Prime Minister is willing to utterly destroy her government's chance of reelection or not.
She has the numbers with the support of the Greens and her pet Independents, to get the Carbon Tax through both Houses of Parliament, so she can make it happen. But she's already way behind in the polls and if she wants any chance of winning in 2013 (presuming she can hold on that long) she needs to start moving in the right direction now - a carbon tax will remove any chance she has of doing that.
At the moment, it looks like she is willing to do it - the recent economic disturbance gave her a lifeboat - she could have said she was abandoning the policy because of the world economic situation and not lost too much credibility, but she didn't take it.
The fly in the ointment, as far as the government is concerned at the moment is serious allegations of impropriety, if not outright corruption leveled at one of her Members of Parliament - Craig Thomson, the Member for Dobell. What he is accused of, could, if it can be substantiated be enough to force him to resign from Parliament. In that case, the Liberal/National coalition would probably win the by-election that would follow, and if that happened, the Gillard government would probably fall. This could all happen very quickly - is it going to? I'd say a 1 in 5 chance at the moment - possible, but the odds are against it.