Posted on 08/15/2011 2:14:07 PM PDT by Qbert
As part of our ongoing efforts to provide you with original political content, Red Racing Horses has commissioned a poll of the 8/16 Recall Election between Kim Simac (R) and Jim Holperin (D).
The race is extremely close, with Holperin holding a 51-49 lead with an MOE of +- 2.62. This is going down to the wire folks.
The poll was conducted by We Ask America over the weekend, and shows the race too close to call, but an electorate very unsatisfied with the President.
Here are the results:
Sample Size: 1384
MOE: +/- 2.62
Political Breakdown: 28-28-43 (Democrats, Republicans, Independents)
Obama Approval/Disapproval: 41-56
SD-12:
Jim Holperin -- 51
Kim Simac -- 49
The crosstabs reveal a huge gender gap between the candidates:
Amongst Men:
Holperin -- 43
Simac -- 57
Amongst Women:
Holperin -- 58
Simac -- 42
Simac is winning Independents 52-48, which is very good for her, considering they make up 43% of voters. But Holperin is winning 92% of Democrats, compared to Simac's 88%. That difference appears to be the margin in the race.
Tomorrow, Simac needs to hold strong with independents, and has the difficult job of appealing to the Republican base and more moderate women in order to take down Jim Holperin. We've been leaked a few other internal polls with Simac up, and that is certainly a possibility with the MOE of this poll. But regardless, it's going to be a close race on Tuesday.
Look at the overall Obama approval number of 41-56. That includes a 35-60 rating amongst Independents. Simac might be smart to link Holperin with Obama in an effort to nationalize the race a little. Obama's stunningly low approval certainly isn't going to help Holperin in the race.
Additionally, we encourage you to finish Project 4 before midnight on Tuesday, and raise your hand to contribute your money, time, and energy to the Simac campaign.
I hate to sound pessimistic, but in a very tight race, the Dems usually win. You have to factor int he fraud factor.
Thanks Qbert.
I hate Blog Pimping posts
As exciting as this appears, the district is heavily union-influenced.
Holperin will avail but by a small margin. Simac should concede once 100% is reported.
Helperin-Simac is in a far-north very rural district.
The Dem machine should be negated, although folks that far in the sticks tend to enjoy the fruits of entitlements as much as their inner-city brethren.
“Another tight Wisconsin recall
...Sources on both sides tell me they expect Democrats to struggle to hold Jim Holperin’s Wausau seat in rural northeastern Wisconsin, which is expected to be the tightest of the three races....”
http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0811/Another_tight_Wisconsin_recall.html
How is this a blog-pimping post? The entire article was posted -- no one had to click the link to read more. According to your logic, any blog post here is "pimping". Come to think of it, if I post an excerpt from the Washington Post here, am I "pimping" the WaPo?
Now, it does exist at FR, but I can't see where this is an example. And, no, it's not my blog.
I think it's a little late to give her advice for her campaign. The election is tomorrow, after all.
I'm praying for this race, that the republicans decide to come out in force because they are upset with the democrats, and the democrats stay home because they are demoralized from last week's elections.
I’m all for them if they give original information, and post it all here for us. You don’t have to go to the blog.
“How is this a blog-pimping post?”
It’s not. Blog pimping, by some standards, is whenever a “major effort” is required to lift the index finger and “click the mouse”.
Holperin will avail but by a small margin. Simac should concede once 100% is reported.
Whose side are you on anyway? Every election everywhere is heavily influenced by union thugs & goons. A margin of error of 2%, the race right now is virtually dead even and you're giving the election to Holperin and telling Simac to promptly concede at 100%? What if there are illegality issues? Tampered ballots? Dead people voting for the dimTurd? Should Simac concede before the election even takes place.
I hope the mods strike your posting. We don't need that level of discouragement & capitulation. You've already conceded the race.
In my district 10 last Tuesday between Sheila Harsdorf (R) and the rabid dimTurd Shelly Moore (D), the media & polls were projecting a major upset by Moore against Harsdorf. Instead Harsdorf crushed Moore by 58% / 42%.
In fact most of the so called "polls" last week Tuesday were projecting a dimTurd sweep across the board. That's why Ed Schulz & DUmmmieLand & Daily Kos & other dimTurd media were having major meltdowns. The unions threw $30 million into the 6 senate recalls last week, along with $12-15M from DimTurd state & national organizations, liberal special interest PACs like MoveOn.org, etc. In the end, they suffered a crushing defeat, even with the 2 recall elections they won. Overall 53% of voters last week voted for the GOP state senators and Gov Walker's agenda.
Geez, don't listen to the polls, especially since most of the polls are done by the partisan left-wing media with the blatant attempt to influence the election and squelch Repub turnout before the election even begins.
C'mon WI -- Get out & vote like you've never done before! Bury these cowardly run-away demoRATs and throw their asses out of office for derelection of duties.
“I hate Blog Pimping posts”
I have absolutely no connection with them- I don’t remember even hearing of this site before today. (And the article was cited in full.)
I just thought they had some interesting information. Recall elections are notoriously difficult to poll, and this poll seems about as close as it’s going to get as a read on the race.
Hopefully the dems are demoralized and stay home.
And yet here’s another poll showing that women don’t like being represented by a {gasp} woman. Bizarre.
Thanks for the post, Qbert. This is the first post I’ve seen on how close the races are. It is interesting and informative.
Regarding your Post 13, I hope you’re right.
This morning, Byron York was filling in for Bill Bennett and he made a brief comment about tomorrow’s recall election, saying something to the effect that polling didn’t look good for either GOP candidate.
byron York is fairly well plugged in on these matters. Having said that, I hope he’s wrong. The GOP needs to pick up at least one seat on Tuesday.
Regarding your Post 13, I hope you’re right.
This morning, Byron York was filling in for Bill Bennett and he made a brief comment about tomorrow’s recall election, saying something to the effect that polling didn’t look good for either GOP candidate.
byron York is fairly well plugged in on these matters. Having said that, I hope he’s wrong. The GOP needs to pick up at least one seat on Tuesday.
byron York is fairly well plugged in on these matters. Having said that, I hope he’s wrong. The GOP needs to pick up at least one seat on Tuesday.
Well, once again I hope that the pollsters miss it as badly tomorrow as they did last week. Quite honestly I believe that nearly ever pollster was predicting a sweep by the demTurds or at least a split of 3 seats (R) and 3 seats (D). If Randy Hopper had not messed around & messy fidelity & divorce issues, I am convinced we would have hung onto that seat.
Re. Byron York, he is still basing his prediction on polling that nearly always is intended to demoralize Repubs and to try to convince Repubs that they might as well just stay home rather than go to "waste" their time voting.
Like I said, last week was a stunning blow & upset to the demTurds & media & unions, after they are pumped $30 million by the unions & $12-15 million by demTurd organizations & radical special interest PACs like MoveOn.org into those 6 state seats. This amount of money for 6 STATE Senate seats is unprecedented. This used to be how much was spent for presidential elections only 4-5 elections ago. They fully expected a sweep or at least a 50/50 split of the 6 seats. Instead the DimTurds barely got 2 of 6 with the loss or Randy Hopper's seat 51/49, and Dan Kapanke lost 55/45 in a district with 60/40 dimTurd registration advantage.
Sheila Harsdorf (R) had been maligned, smeared, threatened, lied about, and her demTurd socialist demTurd opponent, Shelly Moore, was fully confident that she would win and beat Sheila Harsdorf. Instead Sheila Harsdork AND the GOP voter turnout demolished Moore by 58% / 42%.
I hope the demTurds are totally demoralized for tomorrow's 2 dimTurd recall elections. However the GOP voters & conservatives & independents & TEA party members have GOT to get our & vote irregardless. If we have the same intensity & turnout as last week, I am convinced that we should take both of those seats back. Plus that would probably put the kabosh on more recall shenanigans by the dimTurds as their newly adopted strategy.
Pray like we've never prayed.
Vote early & vote often (just kidding....I think).
Looking at the cross tabs I once again call for the REPEAL of the 19th Amendment to out Constitution,
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