Richard Koo: The Ratings Agencies May Destroy The Global Economy Once Again

Business Insider ^ | August 9, 2011 | Joe Wiesenthal

[lbryce]

The latest note from Nomura's Richard Koo is chock full of insight, which is not surprising since talk of fiscal consolidation, misguided ratings agencies, and balance sheet recessions is his wheelhouse.

As he's famously observed before, in such recessions like these, spending cuts actually make deficits worse, and so he's particularly dismayed by the counter-productive actions of S&P.

Fiscal stimulus will reduce budget deficit in balance sheet recession. What I find even more interesting is that Japan’s fiscal deficit increased under the Hashimoto administration, which pursued fiscal consolidation, but decreased under the Obuchi and Mori governments, which gave up on deficit-reduction efforts and began applying fiscal stimulus. Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi also came into office with a pledge to reduce the fiscal deficit by capping new JGB issuance at ¥30trn, but the economy weakened and the deficit rose. Only after he abandoned that pledge in 2003 did the economy pick up and the fiscal deficit begin to shrink.

These experiences demonstrate that during a balance sheet recession, when businesses and households are struggling to deleverage, the correct policy—fiscal stimulus—is exactly the opposite of what is needed under normal circumstances. Active application of stimulus will ultimately minimize the fiscal deficit.

Standard & Poor’s does not understand this and says America’s AAA* rating may be restored if the government succeeds in trimming its deficit by $4trn. The adoption of such a policy by the US government today would plunge the economy into another Great Depression.

Rating agencies may actually destroy the global economy again

Moreover, the experiences of Japan and more recently Ireland show that once the economy slows as a result of fiscal consolidation, the credit agencies will issue another downgrade, this time citing economic weakness

[arrogantsob]

As I told you earlier just the fact you don't like someone or something does NOT make them “socialist”. I think WW was a doofus but he was not a socialist.

Welfarism is not socialism. What do you think socialism is?

The Humphery-Hawkins Act charges the Fed with working for full employment. I never claimed it was a good idea or that it achieved this goal. Your hypothetical "college student" and his problems have nothing to do with the facts. We all had to get a job when we got out of college Fed or no Fed. Hamilton destroyed the argument about 220 yrs. ago that a National Bank was unconstitutional. You should read it sometime if you want to see brilliance at work. He made Jefferson's argument look like the work of an idiot as he did virtually every time they were in conflict. Then that "socialist" George Washington signed the law creating the Bank.

[arrogantsob]

One of these days I will read that book but, if the “facts” you listed earlier (which I showed to be false and/or misleading) are an example of what it has to offer, I won’t be expecting much.

[TruthConquers]

I read that book on line, and it is very interesting.

I do find it interesting that the public schools and universities don’t teach the history of economics as part of the curriculum. There is much they don’t cover to give themselves the room to propagandize the less aware and the less curious.

Being a student for life keeps one awake instead of locked into the dead paradigm of unless and unfounded “facts”.

I came across this video on some of what you are talking aobut on ZeroHedge. It starts with the housing crisis, but then moves onto the issues the book you mentioned covers.

It is 30min long, but can be watched in two parts. It is also fun! Enjoy.
http://www.youtube.com/profile?user=theamericandreamfilm&annotation_id=annotation_996700&feature=iv

[Ghost of Philip Marlowe]

You showed nothing. You stated opinion against generalized history. That is why you need to read the books I listed.

The books are written. I don’t have the time to keep repeating the history, methodology, and ulterior motives of the central bank. Go back over my posts for the past year and you’ll find plenty of details.

If nothing else, read Meltdown by Woods. It is a very fast, enjoyable read and it will open your eyes.

[arrogantsob]

You claimed the Fed was created by an “elite”. I gave a little snapshot of the history of the “elite” opposition for thirty years. No comment from you. Just an admonition to read a bunch of books.

I showed you that the Fed profits go to the Treasury. No comment from you. Just an admonition to read a bunch of books.

Even the “controlled by a central authority” is not exactly accurate since the Board of Governors is not monolithic in thought.

“I don’t have the time to keep repeating the history, methodology, and ulterior motives of the central bank.” You have done none of that just admonished me to read a bunch of books. And “no” I am not going to go over your posts for the last year.

[Ghost of Philip Marlowe]

Dude, you are so effing under-educated on the topic I didn’t bother to respond to your inane “rebuttal.” They are the same dull, wrong arguments that soft-liberals use.

Go read and learn.