Posted on 08/09/2011 1:43:55 PM PDT by Jean S
While the Wisconsin recalls have taken on remarkable state and national trappings, they’re still local elections waged in local districts.
For those who’ll be trying to make sense of the outcome Tuesday night, it's worth revisiting the recent voting history of the six state Senate seats in play this week.
All six were carried by Democrat Barack Obama in the 2008 presidential race and by Republican Scott Walker in the 2010 race for governor. That widely noted fact makes these districts sound like perfect political battlegrounds.
But that’s misleading. In fact, the majority (19) of Wisconsin’s 33 state Senate districts voted for both Obama and Walker. That says less about the makeup of those districts than about the massive political swing that occurred between a huge Democratic victory in 2008 and a huge Republican one in 2010.
What you really need to know about these districts is how they voted compared with the state as a whole.
The chart below shows the 2008 and 2010 results for all six districts being contested Tuesday. The columns under the heading “GOP advantage” show the difference between Republican performance at the district level and Republican performance statewide. For example, the GOP vote for governor last year was 5.9 points higher in Sheila Harsdorf's district than it was statewide; the GOP vote for president in '08 was 5.6 points higher in her district than it was statewide:
The numbers show that one of the six districts (the 32nd, represented by Dan Kapanke) voted less Republican than the state as a whole in 2008 and 2010. Kapanke is widely seen as the GOP incumbent most likely to be knocked off Tuesday.
The other five voted more Republican than the state as a whole. (Of the five, all but Harsdorf's district were also carried by conservative Justice David Prosser in the ultra-close April 5 Supreme Court race).
In short, five of the six districts in play Tuesday are clearly GOP-leaning in their makeup. That’s no surprise. These are all Senate seats held by Republicans in a terrible GOP year (2008). The GOP advantage isn’t huge. It’s not big enough to make these districts “safe” for Republicans. But it’s real.
It’s also one reason why these hugely anticipated recall races have been so hard to handicap. Democrats have certain things going for them in the recall fight: they’ve been intensely mobilized in opposition to Gov. Walker; they benefit from the organizational strength of labor; and Walker’s polling numbers have been weak. But Democrats are running “uphill” in five of the six elections Tuesday, trying to capture districts that are more Republican than the state as a whole in their partisan makeup. In order to overcome that disadvantage, they have to win the turnout battle, carry independents or both.
Ping!
When this is done, I’m hoping we can get some help where needed in Michigan.
I think Gov. Snyder is safe for now but I’m not sure about the rest.
Governor Rick Snyder (R) (Failed to get his recall on the nov ballot)
Michigan Senate Majority Leader Randy Richardville (R - Monroe)
State Senator Tom Casperson (R - Escanaba)
State Senator Darwin Booher (R - Evart)
State Senator Judy Emmons (R - Sheridan)
State Senator Mike Green (R - Mayville)
State Senator Mark Jansen (R - Gaines Township)
State Senator Jim Marleau (R - Lake Orion)
State Senator Mike Nofs (R - Battle Creek)
State Senator John Proos (R - St. Joseph)
State Senator Roger Kahn (R - Saginaw Township)
State Senator John Pappageorge (R -Troy)
Michigan House Speaker Jase Bolger (R - Marshall)
State Representative Kurt Damrow (R - Port Austin)
State Representative Joel Johnson (R - Clare)
State Representative Phil Potvin (R - Cadillac)
State Representative Al Pscholka (R - Stevensville)
State Representative Paul Scott (R - Grand Blanc)
State Representative Kevin Cotter (R - Mt. Pleasant)
A petition is circulating also to REPEAL PUBLIC ACT 4 of 2011, “The Local Government and School District Fiscal Accountability Act”.
Sadly, it seems like the Democrats do particularly well in special elections - at least for the US House seats that open up. Hope we can pull through these state Senate recalls tonight. If they can’t knock off any Republicans (or only get one), if will be a huge black eye for the union thugs.
FYI....just channel surfing..flicked on MSNBC..Ed Schultz is on the ground in Milwaukee..possibly he’s overheated..but listening to him..he’s rather subdued...not his usual bluster..wonder if he knows something...like the exit polls..?
Mark Belling is talking about this on the radio right now on WISN Milwaukee area.
And it’s ALBERTA Darling. ;^)
There's a good question whether she'd have won in a two-way race.
Rachael Maddow and Fatboy Mike have been the ones hyping recall in Michigan.
The fact that the left only managed to collect 300,000 of the 800,000 signatures needed to get a Snyder recall on the ballot doesn’t bode well for them.
In Michigan, VALID signatures must be collected within a 90 day period.
Alberta has a great team. She has three call centers and they were recently making 15,000 calls a day. I was making calls for her in Waukesha (WI GOP) but they switched us to Luther Olsen figuring he needs more help. He’s run unopposed for so many years that he hasn’t bothered to do much fundraising, sigh.
As of tomorrow we’ll be calling for Kim Simac for next Tuesday’s elections, I think they’ve written off recalling Wirch.
I keep a radio on my desk with Rush and Hannity on it all the time. It acts like a force field to them, they just don’t walk into my office.
OOPS, wrong thread.
This is ALL THE MARBLES for the Deranged Liberal Nutjob Whackadoodle crowd.
Forty MILLION DOLLARS, a virtual who’s who among the Nutjob Left groups, months of organizing, thousands of Lib volunteers and paid Union Thud “organizers” going door to door in each of these districts. Full-time MSNBC coverage and build-up for months, etc,etc...
(one Dem group claims they knocked on 200,000 doors since SATURDAY)
Twitter is reporting turnouts on par with 2010 in Milwaukee, and one report says the Clerk in Fond-u-lac county expects a 70-80% turnout before the day is done.
In the end, this is going to be a TEXTBOOK excsersise in THE POWER OF PROPAGANDA. Can the left, with the support of a wildly biased media and union thuggery, convince the voters that the economic wreckage they see with their own eyes isn’t happening, and that their eyes are lying?
If they can, we could very well be in trouble come 2012.
This is the “ARE THEY REALLY THAT STUPID?” election, imho.
As I have said the entire time, if WI voters are stupid enough to recall these people, then they DESERVE what happens to them. Like jumping into the ocean with a Great White Shark. If he eats you, you DESERVED to get eaten for stupidity. Same thing here.
I was making calls today for Luther Olsen with a woman who said she has a friend who is housing 3 democrats from Nevada who are here to help with the recalls. There has never been this kind of out-of-state presence before in WI.
“she has a friend who is housing 3 democrats from Nevada”
Welfare liberals do have a lot of free time on their hands
That's bad news. If you are listening to Belling, he's coming back to talk about hanky panky going on in Milwaukee on election day.
“hanky panky going on in Milwaukee on election day”
...and the sun rises in the east.
The GOP better be on their toes on this one
I thought I read that there were two Democrats also in this recall election. If this is correct, what is their standings?
The recall elections to oust the 2 dems are next Tuesday. We have little chance chance to get rid of Wirch, he’s in a heavily unionized area, but Kim Simac has a chance to beat Holperin who’s in a more conservative area.
Union thugs will not be defeated.
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