Palin would win over Is and Ds, without Ron Paul. I suspect that the Is and Ds that Palin would get would be different than the Is and Ds that Paul would get.
I’m not arguing even that Palin would need Ron Paul’s D’s and I’s in addition to her own D’s and I’s.
I don’t care what polls say, women will be voting for Palin. All rural white women, all lower middle class white women, all hs or less whites. And I think she would draw huge numbers with those groups. Ron Paul would help with fans of indie rock. Ron Paul would help with 18-29.
I buy the theory that Palin/Bachman fight it out and split votes between them. This advantages Romney who Bachman is leading in some polls, gaining in others. One of the girls emerge, Romney is in, and now comes Rick Perry for a three way race. This is where Rick is capable of not only bringing his own in, but taking from Romney and from one of the girls, for the win.