I buy the theory that Palin/Bachman fight it out and split votes between them. This advantages Romney who Bachman is leading in some polls, gaining in others. One of the girls emerge, Romney is in, and now comes Rick Perry for a three way race. This is where Rick is capable of not only bringing his own in, but taking from Romney and from one of the girls, for the win.
Bachmann won’t last until the primaries. If Palin’s in, give a lot of Bachmann’s to Palin. More of Bachmanns would go to Palin than anywhere else, but I don’t see Bachmann as a factor in January 2012, especially if Palin is in there.
Ron Paul will get 10% at least, everything is ahead of where it was last time, any analysis should include him.
My analysis. (if) Palin get in, Palin gets most of the tea party, plus regular Republicans (who might be more “establishment” than “tea party”) Paul has his people, plus some tea party. There will be an “establishment” candidate(s). If Rick Perry is one of those candidates, he’ll be one of those candidates. Mitt Romney is the frontrunner establishment candidate. Cain and Bachmann would likely be out if Palin runs. The tea party will not support Perry.