That was a detailed and thoughtful post Jess. I have not read many threads lately because they are depressing and forced. I don't know how to answer you. It just doesn't feel right. She is so high maintenance at this point. Certainly she knew about the movie situation. Why doesn't she signal by withdrawing from her Fox contract, that income certainly isn't supporting her -- and would give a big "signal."
Too who? Romney, the media, the Obama team trying to plan, schedule, strategise, and focus, for 2012? Who?
I don't know how to answer you either. My knowledge of campaign law is not extensive enough to know if the FEC has the ability to decree someone is running based on actions taken, and therefore subject to campaign finance laws, even if that person has not yet announced.
As far as FOX is concerned, there could be a variety of scenarios. Apparently, there was a meeting a few weeks back and the scuttlebutt was that no one came out of it happy. It's possible she told them she was running and they did cancel her contract, but they mutually agreed to keep it quiet. It's also possible that her contract has language that doesn't allow her to speak about it for a period of time if they end their contractual relationship. There could be other scenarios I'm not thinking of. She hasn't appeared on FOX for a few weeks.
As far as a big signal is concerned, I would say her statements in the Newsweek article that just came out is a pretty big signal. Also, Bristol was making the TV circuit a week or so ago and said that her Mom had already made her decision. Sarah contradicted her the next day, but I believe Bristol. Bristol just wasn't supposed to say it yet. In addition to that, Sarah bought a house in the lower 48, bought a bus and had patriotic symbols painted all over it, and just happened to travel through New Hampshire the same day Mitt announced his candidacy. Then there is "The Undefeated", which was released early in 3 states (100 pts to you if you can guess which 3). If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck...
As for your feeling of unease, I suggest praying, both for our country and for wisdom in making a decision about whom you will support. Then listen to your gut. I've learned to listen to mine and it usually doesn't lead me astray.