Top Obama adviser says unemployment won't be key in 2012

The Hill ^

[Sub-Driver]

Top Obama adviser says unemployment won't be key in 2012 By Ian Swanson - 07/07/11 08:25 PM ET

President Obama’s senior political adviser David Plouffe said Wednesday that people won’t vote in 2012 based on the unemployment rate.

Plouffe should probably hope that’s the case, since dismal job figures aren’t expected to get any better for Obama and the economy on Friday.

Most economists expect a report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics to show that the nation added about 100,000 jobs in June. That’s not enough to keep up with population growth, let alone lower the unemployment rate or make a dent in the 9 million jobs lost during the so called Great Recession.

It’s looking more and more like Obama will have to do something no president has done since Franklin Roosevelt: Win reelection with unemployment around 8 percent.

Ronald Reagan, another president Obama is sometimes compared with, was reelected in 1984 when unemployment was 7.2 percent. Obama isn’t likely to see a number that low.

Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody’s Analytics, predicts the nation will have added 110,000 jobs in total in June, with 125,000 added in the private sector. Hiring by the public sector will continue to fall.

The economy would have to add 350,000 jobs every month between now and December 2014 to get back to the pre-recession low of 5 percent unemployment, last seen in December 2007, according to the Economic Policy Institute (EPI).

Reagan saw that kind of growth after the recession of the early 1980s, and it helped him win reelection by a comfortable 18 points. He also faced Walter Mondale, a weak opponent, from the opposing party — a bit of history Obama hopes to repeat in 2012.

The economy hasn’t seen such high-octane growth since August 1993 to February 1995, when it last averaged 350,000 jobs created per month. Even during the tech boom in the latter half of the 1990s, the economy didn’t average that many jobs, according to Heidi Shierholz, an economist with EPI.

The Obama campaign’s hope is that voters will feel the economy is improving in the fall of 2012, just as they did when Roosevelt and Reagan were reelected.

That seemed to be at the root of Plouffe’s remarks on Wednesday, as quoted by Bloomberg.

“The average American does not view the economy through the prism of GDP or unemployment rates or even monthly jobs numbers,” Plouffe said, according to Bloomberg. “People won’t vote based on the unemployment rate, they’re going to vote based on: ‘How do I feel about my own situation? Do I believe the president makes decisions based on me and my family?’ ”

The remarks will likely irritate Democrats who think Obama and his political team have taken their eye off jobs.

There’s some reason to think Obama could get a boost from the economy in the second half of the year, particularly given signs that the White House and congressional Republicans are moving closer to a deal that would lift the nation’s debt ceiling and cut trillions from annual deficits.

There’s no doubt such a deal would boost confidence in the economy and the political system. It could also boost hiring.

Layoffs have basically stopped since the recession, said Shierholz, but employers aren’t hiring even though corporations are expected to announce huge profits for the first half of the year.

“We are still treading water at the bottom of a deep hole,” said Shierholz.

The only real improvement in the labor market since the recession ended is with workers who have decided to sit out the slow economy and not look for a new job. That’s helped keep the unemployment rate low, Shierholz said.

Zandi argues the economy was sidetracked for the first half of the year by a number of shocks that he hopes are temporary.

They include the devastating tsunami in Japan that wreaked havoc on manufacturers around the world; turmoil in the Middle East; the ongoing conflict in Libya that sent crude oil prices to summer highs in the spring; and the debt talks, which Zandi said appear to have led the Treasury to slow outlays to avoid breaching the debt ceiling.

“The ill effects of these shocks are or will soon fade and even add to growth during the second half of the year,” Zandi said in an email. He expects payroll employment gains to be back near 200,000 by the end of the year.

If Zandi’s right and those gains continue through 2012, Plouffe might be proven right, too, as voters could be pleased with their position.

But there isn’t a lot of room for Obama to maneuver when it comes to the unemployment rate.

[Joe Boucher]

Soooo,
Obammy isn’t the only clueless dolt in his administration.

[OpusatFR]

People vote their pocketbooks.

The dems believe they can shape the campaign because of they own the media and the propaganda is theirs to broadcast.

The GOP just doesn’t appear to be all that functional lately. They need to tighten up their message and pound it.

[OpusatFR]

People vote their pocketbooks.

The dems believe they can shape the campaign because they own the media and the propaganda is theirs to broadcast.

The GOP just doesn’t appear to be all that functional lately. They need to tighten up their message and pound it.

[TennTuxedo]

There’s no such thing as the boogieman.....
There’s no such thing as the boogieman......
There’s no such thing as the boogieman.......
There’s no such thing as the boogieman........

[sniper63]

"I wonder what they know or have planned?"

Instead of NBP at polling places picking on individuals, they will have the flash mobs descend on the polling places and shut them down, then institute martial law.

Remember you heard it here first.........

[newzjunkey]

“Are you better off than you were four years ago.”

[princeofdarkness]

“I work in a 99% minority environment. I live in the ‘hood’ and am the only white family for 4 blocks or more.”

I will just politely state some advice which I am sure you have heard before. For God’s sake, get out while you can.

[redgolum]

Really?

[Pollster1]

Imagine how bad it would have been without Stimulus, TARP, Cash-for-Clunkers, ObamaCare, and an extra $1.6 trillion dollars in annual deficit spending ($5,000 per man, woman, child, and fictional/dead voter in the country).

People aren't going to hold it against Obama just because the economy went from a little shaky to the bottom of the sewer as soon as Obama seized power, nor are they going to blame Obama just because the economy stayed down there permanently once Obama's socialist policies were implemented.

We have the news media here to explain that everything bad is unexpected, bad luck, and the new normal. In other words: "It's not the economy, stupid." It's nice that NPR, CNN, and MSNBC are there to report with Goebbels-like efficiency that Obama is doing a perfect job. Under Obama, "work will set us free" - which would make a great sign over the gate to Obama's new community for working people.

[RipSawyer]

Whistling past the graveyard alright but I think he plans to put us in that graveyard and keep right on whistling.

[RipSawyer]

Whistling past the graveyard alright but I think he plans to put us in that graveyard and keep right on whistling.

[RipSawyer]

Just wait until they tell us the starvation rate has “unexpectedly” dropped because millions of people have stopped looking for food.

[StonyBurk]

I just wish the Obamanation could assure me my son in law,and my other daughters boyfriend and my only sons “friend-who is HIV positive— could all somehow find themselves employed (even by the Obama Administration) at the same or equitable rate as seen in the salary of over half of the Employees at the WhiteHouse — 100,000 per annum salary .I know rock stars who perform in outlandish costumes to get somehting close to that -but if they don’t get on stage— they don’t get paid.
I know of professional athletes-football players, basketball players, boxers,etc. who put themself at personal risk of bodily injury to get something like the Obama Administration pays over half of its bloated staff. But dam —if they don’t go play on the field they don’t get paid. the Obama economy has harmed my family. I see problems with all three of my children in their relationships/ all tied to the economy. And if the Obama people are saying it will NOT be an issue-they must be doing drugs better than what these kids today are smoking. Because I just dont see it.

[sergeantdave]

What a pile of pap.

[Lmo56]

President Obama’s senior political adviser David Plouffe said Wednesday that people won’t vote in 2012 based on the unemployment rate.

Plouffe added, "'Scuse me - I have very important business of the United States to attend to ..."

[corbe]

Now thats just to dang funny.

[hinckley buzzard]

Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody’s Analytics, predicts the nation will have added 110,000 jobs in total in June, with 125,000 added in the private sector.

OK so this "chief economist" is proven to be incompetent. He will be back next month, witha prohpecy just as accurate.

BTW, Plouffe is sending a message to the media here--the message is, "Begin now to de-emphasize unemployment in your reporting-- we don't even want to hear those words spoken by you during the campaign. Remember who you work for."

[4woodenboats]

~Puckering up for his daily Plouffe~

He's certainley getting his money's worth from all those bowing lessons.

[DustyMoment]

I really don’t know if Obama & Co. are really this delusional or are trying to put on a brave face.

It's the second one, Matt. They just want us to THINK it's the first oen!

Remember, ALL leftists think all conservatives are stupid!!

[ScottinVA]

That’s Plouffe?? So THAT’S what a fully white 0bama would look like...