I don’t know either.
What I do know is this:
1. Conservative GOP voters in Texas are not happy with Perry. He has made noticeable shifts to the right over the last couple of years, but he has governed as a “moderate” at best. Therefore, it is no surprise that he is not leading the pack in Texas.
2. GOP voters in Texas have never warmed to Ron Paul other than his congressional district. Paul used to be officially a libertarian candidate, but he could never win running as a libertarian so he ran as a republican and won his seat, and has used the power of incumbancy to retain that seat. His district is pretty safe as a GOP seat, but nobody wants to mount a primary challenge to try to replace him with a real republican over a libertarian republican.
3. My take on the condition of the race right now is this: With no GOP front-runner yet established and the number of potentials weighing a bid, you probably have Palin and Bauchmann splitting the tea party / conservative side of the GOP with Herman Cain, then the mildly conservative to moderate wing of the party leaning toward Pawlenty and Perry, and the more moderate to liberal side of the party leaning toward Romney.
Conservative Ron Paul was officially a Libertarian for a short period of time when he ran against RINO Bush in 1988.
Before that he was a Conservative Republican who supported Conservative Reagan against RINO Ford in 1976 and supported Conservative Reagan against RINO Bush in 1980.
And then Conservative Ron Paul joined the Republican Party again.
Bob Barr led the fight against Clinton in the 90s. But then he became a Libertarian against the RINO McCain.
The Conservatives want a choice. You might not have noticed this, but often, the Republican Presidential nominee kinda sucks, and is rarely Conservative. None of the Bushs were Conservatives. Bush II was a fake Conservative, and Bush I said “no new taxes” and promptly raised taxes. Ron Paul ran against that guy.
You might not have noticed this, but often the Constitutional Party nominee and the Libertarian Party nominee (often Republicans who hate the RINO Republican, or simply want to give the voters a Conservative choice) are often much more Conservative than the RINO Republican.