Posted on 07/03/2011 7:46:28 AM PDT by blam
Gary Shilling: Commodities "Show Every Sign" Of Being A Bursting Bubble
Joe Weisenthal
July 3, 2011, 7:36 AM
The final segment of Gary Shilling's big essay on Chinese hard landing argues that the inevitable bust will end in tears for the global commodity industry.
Already, he says, commodities "show every sign" of being in a bubble zooming towards burst.
His points are as follows:
Every global commodity has been on a tear, but much of that has been driven by speculators, firm in their belief of inexhaustible demand from China.
But already, despite warnings about supply tightness, there are reports of huge stockpiles showing up in warehouses around the world.
Weather has been bad, but it's likely to turn, leading to huge surpluses and bumper-crops for agricultural commodities.
As speculators suffer in the agricultural space, they'll dump their other commodity holdings as well.
A classic tell that industrial commodities were peaking was back in February, when gold miner Barrick Gold announced the acquisition of copper miner Equinox.
Meanwhile, not only have the prices of various commodities been coming down, people still haven't realized it. It's a classic Wile E. Coyote moment.
Finally, the fact that so many commodities have moved in lockstep further confirms that the move is based on speculation, not on fundamentals.
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
Upland farms have had difficulty getting crops in because of extensive rainfall this spring (fields too wet), following record snowfall, including a blizzard in May. Where crops were planted, there are problems with mildew (rust, brown spot). Maybe it is different elsewhere, but this is a region which grows one hell of a lot of wheat, and most of the world's Durum (think pasta) is grown within a couple hundred miles of the Souris River--the whole area has been buried in snow or subject to very frequent rainfall. The runoff in Minot (another record river crest) is from this precipitation.
If the crops aren't in, there won't be a bumper crop.
Sugar beets along the Yellowstone and Souris River are a no-go this year as well--land that isn't still under water is too wet to put a crop in.
Maybe elsewhere will take up the slack, but with accounts of flooding and drought, all I see is someone creating a 'buying opportunity' by assuring everyone that there is plenty to go around. Depressed prices further stress producers who have been nailed by high fuel and seed costs for planting, where they even could plant, and Corps of Engineers, dike failures, and flooding have eliminated some of those crops as well.
Keep in mind that a Soros backed group is trying to buy up flooded farmland cheap, and depressed commodity prices for the harvest work hand in glove with that, regardless of supply.
Speculation can make money on market moves in both directions.
But my Mark 1 eyeball, even with its limited range, tells me there isn't any bumper crop happening around here, and people from 'the area' (200 mile radius) say they see the same.
True. This is also why any projection of the US fiscal situation into the future using current interest rates is poppycock. When US debt service costs go up by over $1 trillion per year over the next decade, anything less than drastic cuts now will only add to the future problems.
Also, didja like how USDA "found" 2.1 million acres of planted corn last week? The remaining big Qs are: what will the yield on the late-planted beans be (there are huge amounts of these, and there could be an enormous swing here), and, will a Gulf hurricane bail out any portion/a decent portion of Texas crops?
As always, stay tuned.
Try this one.
Nope, that one didn’t work either.
Oh well...not meant to be, I guess.
Need to have Oregon fuel permit papers to get that price. Otherwise seen everything from $4.199 in California, to as low as $3.749 in places like Kingman, Arizona or Western Kentucky. Higher in New York State (of course). Saw $4.299 at the Petro on the NY Thruway near Waterloo (but that was "credit price", so $0.05 to $0.10 less was actual cash price. About 3 weeks back for the Waterloo price. Been to Houston, then Dallas, then back to Houston, then to Ogden UT, Salt Lake to Casa Grande, Nogales to Blaine WA and back to Sacramento since then.
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