Look, DO. I like you and (most) of your posts. But I simply do not see how Palin was the difference maker in that election. Even if you credit her with a 10% vote swing- which is shockingly high for someone who was coming off a raping by the media, Hayworth would have still lost. Not even prominent conservatives in his own state endorsed him. That’s troubling, regardless of whether Palin had an effect or not.
I don’t disagree with you there. With regard to you liking most of my posts, I think you’re dead on target. ;^)
Okay, okay...
If you begin with my premise that she did not toss the election to McCain, and my premise that she should have known better than to back him against Hayworth, I think it’s not all that big a stretch to understand where I am coming from.
I think there was a 10 to 15 point in the first thirty days. Over the months, I believe she may have accounted for 10% more. That wasn’t going to cause Hayworth to lose by itself.
The question is, how much could she have swayed the vote, if she had endorsed Hayworth and gotten him the Tea Party vote?
You start looking at that variation, and all of a sudden it’s a game changer. Would it have been enough?
When a person like Palin comes in, I think the public who are on the fence trying to figure out what to do, all of a sudden have permission to go to a guy like McCain.
What if that permission had been denied, and Palin caught on fire for Hayworth? Would the public have too? It’s possible.
I’m not saying that’s a given by any stretch, but it is possible.
Can I say that she cost Hayworth the election for certain? No. Can I say that she absolutely couldn’t have swung it to Hayworth. Not absolutely I can’t.
I’m still not going to hold her responsible for that. I just don’t know.
A couple of my posts probably overlapped the post where you held out an olive branch of sorts. I’m am sorry that I didn’t see that post as I worked my way up the list of posts I needed to respond to.
I know my tone can be abrasive, and I wanted to let you know that your post was nice, and let you know that I did find value in it. I appreciated it.