Bachmann Claims Big Lead Among Iowa Conservatives In New Poll

Iowa Report ^ | June 22, 2011

[GonzoII]

Bachmann Claims Big Lead Among Iowa
Conservatives In New Poll

Rep. Michele Bachmann has taken a substantial lead in the presidential race among Iowa conservatives, according to a new poll. The poll, conducted by the 2012 Iowa Report, finds Bachmann with 33% support among conservatives, more than double the next contender, Herman Cain (15%).

Bachmann’s Iowa polling numbers have risen dramatically over the past two weeks which included her campaign announcement and the GOP presidential debate. Among likely caucus goers, Bachmann also received 33% of the votes with 29% of likely voters thinking the Minnesota congresswoman will “ultimately win” the nomination.

Other key findings:

-- The race for the coveted “three tickets out of Iowa” is still very much up for grabs with five candidates (or potential candidates) receiving double-digit support (Cain 15%, Romney 13%, Palin 11%, Paul 10%)
-- One-fourth of Iowa conservatives are still unsure who will ultimately win.
-- Sarah Palin is still poised to make a major play in Iowa with 11% support among conservatives even though she has not announced her intensions.
-- Ron Paul gains the most among likely caucus goers (+2.3%) while Mitt Romney loses the most (-2.9%)

The 2012 Iowa Report Poll, a project of Grassfire Nation, is a special survey of Iowa conservatives conducted weekly to help measure where Iowa conservatives stand on the 2012 Republican presidential field.

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Complete 2012 Iowa Report Poll Results:

June 22, 2011

[Springfield Reformer]

Full Palin Tweet: “I did? Hmm, glad I have media to let me know my plans. They never cease to amaze.”

You can say it’s not a denial, and I can say it is, and she may have designed it for precisely that effect. What she is affirmatively saying is that the tour cancellation rumor circulating is to be credited to them asserting facts not in evidence. But unnamed sources? Really? Would you let your students get away with that? Granted, she could turn around and cancel tomorrow, but what she is saying, for those with ears to hear, is if you want to know what she’s going to do with any certainty, you better wait for it to come from her. You’re a college prof, and a reasonable man, and I am sure you recognize that is a reasonable take on what she is saying.

As for young people, I guess it’s all where you are. I’m in multiple FB Palin support groups with thousands of members, and most of them are young women, and most of those young women are uber-fans of Sarah Palin, and they’re 99% conservative. So I’m not sayin’ you’re a liar, but I sure hope you’re not sayin’ I’m one, because I’m not. Not arguing whether there might be on-point polling data either; its just that these hypothetical swarms of your conservative women who are lukewarm or cool to Palin, I haven’t met. But then I don’t run in the same circles you & Rush do, so there you go. :)

[Pan_Yan]

Redsouth has never posted anything liberal in all the years on free republic. Just because someone dares post warning about the real Bachmann does not make them a liberal.

You might not be a liberal but until you start posting links to sources for all your anti-Bachmann spam you are a troll. No one will take your rants seriously until you start posting evidence instead of posting rumors.

Evidence wins support for your viewpoints. Rumors only win you enemies.

[fieldmarshaldj]

At this point, I am waiting on her official entry. She is the 800-lb gorilla and the support will come with it once she declares. Right now I don’t waste my time with hedging my bets or moving to support individuals that don’t have the leadership mantle, let alone possess one iota of legitimate Conservative credentials. I also couldn’t care less about appeasing the RINO/liberal establishment or the puppets/ringers they and the media are trying to shove down our throats to ensure a second Zero term.

[Repeal The 17th]

[Repeal The 17th]

Do you mean Jessie Camacho?

or Dwayne Elizondo Mountain Dew Herbert Camacho?

[BenKenobi]

Happy for Cain so far. :) Up to 17 percent among the likely caucus goers. Lots of room for improvement though!

[LS]

The problem is---and you've watched enough politics to know this---you simply don't wait until a month or two out of the first primary and "magically" win, 800-lb gorilla or not. And I do have to challenge this "leadership" stuff, because Reagan could convert large swaths of people who didn't like him. He won women, he won independents, he won lots of Democrats. For pete's sake he won the TEAMSTERS endorsement! What evidence---any---do you have that Palin is "converting" those large groups of people who apparently don't like her? I can't see any. I don't see it in polling data, and her lack of organization and preparation to really do anything suggests that even if she decides to jump in, she will be so far behind everyone else it won't be funny.

You watch history. Do you seriously see her winning the NY, NH, VT, MD, CT, IL, MI, CA, ME, MA, DE, RI or PA primaries? So, you're saying a candidate can spot someone else about 600 primary votes and win? really?

[LS]

Well, I don't see anything at all in that statement that denies anything. Quite the contrary, it's another artful dodge by Palin to avoid saying anything substantive about her intentions. If the tour isn't canceled, what possible reason would you have to not saying, "Hey, tour still on"!?

And the circles I run in involve shopping at WM every other week and participating in the county GOP organization, where I know virtually no one of big money like Rush. If I did, they'd be financing my next movie. So don't paint with a broad brush. I've never played golf in my life, never been to the Hamptons, and deal with approximately 100 college kids a semester. For a while I was the faculty advisor to CRs till it got too much for me to handle.

[fieldmarshaldj]

You’re far too negative on Gov. Palin, as well as trending towards hostility where her candidacy and positive attributes are concerned (why, too, were you claiming above about her tour ending when she stated it had not ?). I’ll add, too, if we still had the demographics and sensibilities of 1980, I have no doubt she’d be able to swing what Reagan did. A better question would be, given the hyper-polarized atmosphere of today, would Reagan be able to perform as he did three decades ago ? Go back three decades before that and Reagan couldn’t obtain the votes that Eisenhower received in certain locales because of the polarization and radicalization between 1952-1980 (the disintegration of Republican support in urban areas and Black support).

Which one of these other Presidential candidates could magically obtain all this support you vociferously claim Palin cannot ? One of those weak-kneed, ball-less RINOs ? Pawlenty, Slick Willard, Huntsman ? Well, hell, we put up one of those in 2008, just like the media wanted and a Democrat won only a majority of the vote for the second time after 1964. Brilliant. Name all of the candidates running or considering to run and see which one instantly draws a crowd and which ones have to rope in or pay people to show up. Nobody else has her level of support amongst the grassroots. Nobody. She is the first person since Reagan to have that “it” quality while so many others have fallen or proven to be a flash in the pan.

[LS]

Herman has to watch the federalism stuff-—which I support, but the gun control thing got him in some trouble. There are constitutional rights that states cannot override, including right to bear arms. Still, he’s the best of who’s announced.

[Springfield Reformer]

Full denial now available via her FB page. Don’t mean to say I told ya so, but ...

[DrewsMum]

She has the ABILITY to win those....(NO REPUB WILL WIN THE TEAMSTERS, so don’t kid yourself)...

This woman had a 93% approval rating in the middle of her governorship. That included Establishment Repubs, Independents, women & YES lots & lots of Democrats...

I keep asking people to provide me a source link to all the “negatives” on Palin. I figure the people who keep repeating that talking point of Bill O’Reilly’s would have at least SEEN the data. I’m not saying it doesn’t exist, but I would love to see it for myself. I tend to not just believe everything I’m told or even most of what I see.

And lack of preparation?? How do you magically know this? What do you think she’s been doing the last 2 years? Sure she campaigned for others, gave speeches, did a show, but she CAN multi-task. She’s a mother for Pete’s sake....we ALL know how to walk AND chew gum. Why do you state she’s unorganized, as if it’s a fact? Are you privy to some inside info??

And...there’s no way she will be behind the others in preparation. She’s so far ahead of them now it’s not funny. It’s comical to me how she has said over and over ad nauseum that she doesnt do the “typical” campaign thing.....she’s different... but yet there are still those that INSIST if she’s not playing by their rules then she must not be playing at all. All I can say to that is.....BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

[LS]

Which brings us to the obvious question, how easy was it to do that in the first place?

[Springfield Reformer]

Yeesh, nothing makes you happy. Bet you’re a tough grader, too. Anyway, we’re only talking a few hours here. She could’ve been out shopping, or whatever. Furthermore, she is Sarah Palin. Her every syllable will be scrutinized to death by you tough grader types, so she’s got to be careful, take her time and say it right.

But for me the interestingh thing about this whole exercise is how you and I, both reasonable people, came to such different conclusions about her tweet. Was my being right mere luck, or was there something in your lens that prevented you from seeing what was so obvious to me? Curious.

[Friendofgeorge]

MB should get out now so that Gov Palin does not have to embarrass her when she speaks of ending subsidies for ethanol.

Not to mention the fact that MB has no chance period, other than spoiler.

[Friendofgeorge]

It`s another freakin ON LINE poll, says tell your friends and neighbors to take the poll

[Friendofgeorge]

It`s just another on line poll, says invite your friends and neighbors to take the poll.

[Friendofgeorge]

Well said! Also in case you are not aware, this is just another online poll, says asks your friends and neighbors to take the poll.

Bachmann people crashed the poll, happens all the time.

[HereInTheHeartland]

I went to answer the poll but didn't complete it. It wanted a lot of personal information. I am getting too many recorded calls already. I checked Palin and Bachman before getting out of the screen.

[RINOs suck]

BACHMANN COULD HAVE BEEN A CONTENDER BFR

Rollins is helping her tap into the Huckabee vote in Iowa.

If this poll is correct, she is going to be hard to beat in Iowa.