Romney, Bachmann, Cain Lead The Pack Among GOP Primary Voters

Rasmussen Reports ^ | June 16, 2011 | Rasmussen Reports

[ejdrapes]

Romney, Bachmann, Cain Lead The Pack Among GOP Primary Voters
Thursday, June 16, 2011

Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney continues to lead the race for the Republican nomination, but Michele Bachmann has surged into second place following her Monday night entry into the campaign.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely GOP Primary Voters, taken following the candidates’ Monday night debate, shows Romney earning 33% support, with Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann a surprise second at 19%. Georgia businessman Herman Cain is in third place with 10% of the vote.

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich picks up nine percent (9%) support, followed by Texas Congressman Ron Paul with seven percent (7%), ex-Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty at six percent (6%) and former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum also earning six percent (6%). Former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman, who did not participate in the debate but is expected to announce his candidacy on Tuesday, gets two percent (2%) of the vote. Eight percent (8%) prefer some other candidate. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Romney and Bachmann are tied among primary voters who say they are Tea Party members, with 26% support each. Romney holds a 36% to 16% lead over the congresswoman among non-members. Most primary voters regard all the candidates with the exception of Huntsman as conservative, but Bachmann is seen as the most conservative.

In late April, billionaire developer Donald Trump led the pack with 19% support, followed by Romney at 17% and former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee with 15%. Trump and Huckabee have since announced that they are not running. Bachmann was the leader among the second-tier candidates at that time.

The survey of 1,000 Likely GOP Primary Voters was conducted on June 14, 2011 by Rasmussen Reports. Likely GOP Primary Voters include both Republicans and unaffiliated voters likely to vote in a GOP Primary. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

For the third week in a row, a generic Republican candidate leads President Obama in a hypothetical 2012 election matchup. But while 54% of Likely Voters nationwide think Obama is qualified to be president, Romney is the only 2012 Republican hopeful that a sizable number of voters feel that way about.

There is little difference of opinion among male and female GOP primary voters, although women give Romney slightly more support. The gap between Romney and Bachmann is narrowest among middle-aged primary voters.

Romney, Bachmann and Cain earn 31%, 22% and 12% support respectively among primary voters who describe themselves as conservatives. Romney runs strongest among party moderates.

Seventy-five percent (75%) of primary voters describe Bachmann as at least somewhat conservative. That includes 55% who say she is Very Conservative.

By contrast, 61% rate Romney as at least somewhat conservative, but that includes just 11% who say he is Very Conservative. Fifty-seven percent (57%) think Cain is at least somewhat conservative, with 32% who view him as Very Conservative.

Gingrich is seen as at least somewhat conservative by 68% of likely primary voters, with 35% who feel he is Very Conservative. Similarly, 63% say Paul is at least somewhat conservative, including 39% who think he is Very Conservative. Pawlenty is seen as at least somewhat conservative by 59%, but only 19% say he’s Very Conservative.

Fifty-eight percent (58%) think Santorum is at least somewhat conservative, including 30% who view him as Very Conservative. Just 31%, however, say Huntsman is at least somewhat conservative, with seven percent (7%) who rate him Very Conservative. Another 20% characterize him as a moderate, but a sizable 40% don’t know enough about him to venture any kind of opinion of his political views.

Huntsman is the least known of the declared or soon-to-be declared candidates.

[RockinRight]

Well, at least #2 and #3 are someone I could vote for.

[Captain Kirk]

The cell phone argument won’t wash. They control for that.

[ejdrapes]

I don't get it. I know many endorsed Romney in 2008 but I always though that was because he wasn't McCain or Huckabee. I don't know why they'd endorse him now unless they buy the media meme that he's the only ‘electable’ candidate. Although yesterday Laura Ingraham didn't seem to fond of Huntsman, who is really being pushed by the MSM.

[ejdrapes]

It’s not worthless. Those are the declared candidates right now. Let Palin jump in and then include her in polls. Otherwise we might as well include Paul Ryan, Jim DeMint and Marco Rubio in these polls too.

[ejdrapes]

She’s not a declared candidate. The Rasmussen poll was taken after the NH debate and included those who are declared candidates (or in the case of Huntsman will be next week). I’ll consider Palin once she declares and not a minute before. Same with all the others floating out there - Perry, Christie, Ryan, DeMint, etc.

[free me]

It is worthless. Palin is a potential candidate who leads all others in at least 2 polls.

Leaving her out produces results not matched by reality.

[MNJohnnie]

Thank you. I am glad someone kept that on hand for 2012, We are going to see a LOT of threads like this one.

[RockinRight]

Because if Saint Sarah the Wise isn’t on it, its crap.

[MNJohnnie]

Does it really matter whether she is a nasty, backstabbing RomneyBOT without judgment OR an incompetent docile RINO-plaything?

No matter how desperately you sing Sarah's praises, she is STILL not going to date you.

Time people around here start thinking with their heads of a change.

[Polybius]

How the hell does Romney get 31% of primary voters who call themselves conservative?!?

This ain't our Grandpa's America any more.

What we call "conservative" is what the typical 1950's American used to be except that, in regards to a lot of social norms, even we would be considered extremely shocking by 1950's standards. Think about it.

We "conservatives", like the bald eagle, are no longer very common in America. The primary is a "Republican" primary. The question then becomes, "How many Republicans consider themselves conservative?"

Take a glance at Gallup Organization surveys. In 2007, self-identified Republicans were about 28 percent of the mass electorate, ...... Fifty-five percent of Republicans self-identified as "conservative," 26 percent as "moderate," and 13 percent as "very conservative."

The bottom line is that the number of Republicans who want Romney is in the ball park with the number of Republicans who consider themselves "moderate".

The bottom line is that the percentage of all American voters who call themselves "Conservative Republicans" is only 21% of all voters because even 100% of all Republicans constitute a rather small minority of all voters.

Demographically, we conservatives are in deep, deep kim-chee.

Being a "Conservative Republican" does not amount to squat in a general election simply because 79% of all voters do not consider themselves "Conservative Republican". In order to get elected in the general election, a candidate needs far more than, "Look at me. I am Conservative".

"Hi, I am Joe Blow, white guy. I was the CEO Godfather's Pizza. Elect me President of the United States of America."

"Umm .... Yeah .... Sure, Joe ... Whatever you say."

That is the problem with Bachmann and Cain: Most Republicans put them on the Presidential table because they are conservative. Period. The 79% of all other voters consider them Affirmative Action candidates who, with their resume, are on the table simply because one has black skin and the other is a female.

The current GOP field is a disaster: RINO Romney and the Affirmative Action Dwarfs.

We desperately need a strong conservative candidate in the race and, no, Sarah Palin, who 65% of all voters have said they will definitely NOT vote for, is not such a candidate.

Bill Clinton did not announce his first winning candidacy until October of the year before the election. The GOP has until around October of 2011 to attract a strong conservative candidate whose poll numbers are not lower than whale scat at the bottom of the ocean and who can actually defeat Obama.

[rob777]

"I don't get it. I know many endorsed Romney in 2008 but I always though that was because he wasn't McCain or Huckabee. I don't know why they'd endorse him now unless they buy the media meme that he's the only ‘electable’ candidate."


One reason is that Romney is seen as having the best chance of beating Obama. I do not think that all of his polling support is actually pro-Romney, as it is a desperation to beat Obama. If Obama continues to appear vulnerable to defeat in 2012, some of that support may go to candidates who they actually like better. My guess is that this especially accounts for whatever Tea Party support Romney may have.

[CincyRichieRich]

Ok then; Romney’s our man. No need to go further. MSM says he’s it. All polls are scientific, no manipulation. Romney is it.

[Captain Kirk]

You don't need to politicize this argument. The question is whether the mainstream polls are generally accurate. I think they are.

I am not happy about this btw. All of the Ron Paulites constantly used that cell phone argument back in 2008. We said that our support much be much, much higher because so many of us did not have land lines and repeatedly won straw polls and online polls. When people finally went to vote, it turned out that the mainstream polls were pretty much right.

[CincyRichieRich]

You don’t need to politicize this argument. The question is whether the mainstream polls are generally accurate. I think they are.
I am not happy about this btw. All of the Ron Paulites constantly used that cell phone argument back in 2008. We said that our support much be much, much higher because so many of us did not have land lines and repeatedly won straw polls and online polls. When people finally went to vote, it turned out that the mainstream polls were pretty much right.

---

Sorry, I have to respectfully disagree. I have been studying polls for many years and having most organizations controlled and conducted by libs ( I have a BS in Statistics BTW) really influences the results. Ever asked a polster who they are doing it for? I’ve had some hang up on me because I asked too many questions. If you believe them, then their objective in picking our horse is working.

[Palmetto Patriot]

In order to get elected in the general election, a candidate needs far more than, "Look at me. I am Conservative".

The way things are headed, all a candidate needs to say this time around is "Look at me, I'm not Obama."

A similar strategy worked in '08.

[Captain Kirk]

Name one election in the last twenty years (either off year general projections or presidential year projections) in which the mainstream polls picked the wrong winners prior to the election. Certainly, last time they all predicted a GOP big victory in the House and gains, but unlikely takeover, in the Senate.

[CincyRichieRich]

Palin hasn’t entered yet;I am not betting on Romney. Polls this early are just silly. I believe unless you are totally banking on Romney have to concede that point.

[Brookhaven]

Romney and Bachmann are tied among primary voters who say they are Tea Party members, with 26% support each.

Oh....nash teeth....horse hocky!

There is no way that Tea Partiers are supporting a guy that implemented RomneyCare and has come out on the side of global warming. No way!

When I see polls like this--with Romeny in the lead and Bachmann suddenly right up there with him it makes me think there's more to the Bachmann-as-stalking-horse story than just rumors.

[dforest]

This just in. Here is the rest of the poll.

per Rassmussen:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2735760/posts

[Brookhaven]

+1

Fox, Laura Ingam, & Hannity are all Romney supporters—if not overtly, at least softly as they don’t point out the obvious deficiencies in Romney.