Romney, Bachmann, Cain Lead The Pack Among GOP Primary Voters

Rasmussen Reports ^ | June 16, 2011 | Rasmussen Reports

[ejdrapes]

Romney, Bachmann, Cain Lead The Pack Among GOP Primary Voters
Thursday, June 16, 2011

Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney continues to lead the race for the Republican nomination, but Michele Bachmann has surged into second place following her Monday night entry into the campaign.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely GOP Primary Voters, taken following the candidates’ Monday night debate, shows Romney earning 33% support, with Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann a surprise second at 19%. Georgia businessman Herman Cain is in third place with 10% of the vote.

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich picks up nine percent (9%) support, followed by Texas Congressman Ron Paul with seven percent (7%), ex-Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty at six percent (6%) and former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum also earning six percent (6%). Former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman, who did not participate in the debate but is expected to announce his candidacy on Tuesday, gets two percent (2%) of the vote. Eight percent (8%) prefer some other candidate. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Romney and Bachmann are tied among primary voters who say they are Tea Party members, with 26% support each. Romney holds a 36% to 16% lead over the congresswoman among non-members. Most primary voters regard all the candidates with the exception of Huntsman as conservative, but Bachmann is seen as the most conservative.

In late April, billionaire developer Donald Trump led the pack with 19% support, followed by Romney at 17% and former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee with 15%. Trump and Huckabee have since announced that they are not running. Bachmann was the leader among the second-tier candidates at that time.

The survey of 1,000 Likely GOP Primary Voters was conducted on June 14, 2011 by Rasmussen Reports. Likely GOP Primary Voters include both Republicans and unaffiliated voters likely to vote in a GOP Primary. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

For the third week in a row, a generic Republican candidate leads President Obama in a hypothetical 2012 election matchup. But while 54% of Likely Voters nationwide think Obama is qualified to be president, Romney is the only 2012 Republican hopeful that a sizable number of voters feel that way about.

There is little difference of opinion among male and female GOP primary voters, although women give Romney slightly more support. The gap between Romney and Bachmann is narrowest among middle-aged primary voters.

Romney, Bachmann and Cain earn 31%, 22% and 12% support respectively among primary voters who describe themselves as conservatives. Romney runs strongest among party moderates.

Seventy-five percent (75%) of primary voters describe Bachmann as at least somewhat conservative. That includes 55% who say she is Very Conservative.

By contrast, 61% rate Romney as at least somewhat conservative, but that includes just 11% who say he is Very Conservative. Fifty-seven percent (57%) think Cain is at least somewhat conservative, with 32% who view him as Very Conservative.

Gingrich is seen as at least somewhat conservative by 68% of likely primary voters, with 35% who feel he is Very Conservative. Similarly, 63% say Paul is at least somewhat conservative, including 39% who think he is Very Conservative. Pawlenty is seen as at least somewhat conservative by 59%, but only 19% say he’s Very Conservative.

Fifty-eight percent (58%) think Santorum is at least somewhat conservative, including 30% who view him as Very Conservative. Just 31%, however, say Huntsman is at least somewhat conservative, with seven percent (7%) who rate him Very Conservative. Another 20% characterize him as a moderate, but a sizable 40% don’t know enough about him to venture any kind of opinion of his political views.

Huntsman is the least known of the declared or soon-to-be declared candidates.

[Vigilanteman]

Romney runs strongest among party moderates.

Who are party moderates? People who would vote for an avowed Marxists over a conservative in the fall?

FWIW, a sizeable portion of the electorate is apolitical and votes with their feelings rather than their brains. Frank Luntz seems to have a talent for finding these people. I was very encouraged by the the good reception which Michelle Bachmann got from the Luntz focus group after this debate.

[Diogenesis]

ejdrapes:
"Sorry no one but the hard core Palin KADs are buying the Bachmann is a Romney stooge argument."

It does not matter whether Bachmann is a Romney stooge.
Most FReepers, including me, really liked her
UNTIL her attack on Gov. Palin with Rollins
whom she thereafter condoned, and kept on.

Does it really matter whether she is a nasty, backstabbing RomneyBOT without judgment
OR an incompetent docile RINO-plaything?

[dforest]

I have often wondered why Romney gets support myself.

So, I started asking. Most people don’t follow politics as close as we do. Many people are political followers on the internet...but many could care less until close to election time. They just hear Romney is a conservative or Republican on the TV. They have no background info on him at all.

So, what has to happen is that the candidates in the field will have to take it to him in the coming months. Right now they all have to set up Obama as who they all are against, but soon, they will have to go at each other.

It will happen as the time moves on.

[FrankR]

[Old Teufel Hunden]

"All of this is well known. Why do primary voters need the other candidates to point this out?"

Yes, on FreeRepublic, among Rush and Hannity listeners etc... however, there is a large swath of republicans who consider themselves conservatives who are not as tuned in as you or I. Those are the people that don't know about the idividual mandate in Romneycare. You don't see Romney touting it do you? He knows that he doesn't want it out there. How Romneycare is Obamacare. There are also conservative votes being split up between people who like Pawlenty, Santorum, Bachman, Cain, Gingrich etc... they have not coelesced around one candidate. Romney also has the highest name recognition since he ran the last time. Lastly, the moderates by and large have picked Mitt as their guy.

[free me]

Romney is not leading all of them and this Rasmussen poll doesn’t include Palin so it’s worthless.

http://media.economist.com/images/pdf/Toplines20110615.pdf
Palin 20%
Romney 14%
Rudy 11%
Perry 8%
Cain 7%
Bachmann 5%
Paul 5%
Gingrich 5%
Pawlenty 4%
Santorum 3%
Huntsman 2%

[C. Edmund Wright]

>This is a bare-faced lie! I don’t know a single Tea Partier who is for Romney. Rasmussen can go pound sand.<

I believe it. I also believe it’s meaningless at this point. These are national polls and it’s early. Even 95% of the “tea party” crowd are folks who don’t follow this stuff each and every day like Freepers do. By the time the caucuses roll around in Iowa, these numbers will be far far different.

[ejdrapes]

Bachmannn a Romney Bot? You’re deranged.

[stephenjohnbanker]

I agree.

[ejdrapes]

From the poll: "Eight percent (8%) prefer some other candidate." Why isn't that number higher then (to account for Palin)?

Why is a poll from the economist anymore worthwhile than one from Rasmussen?

[Linda Frances]

I’m assuming these are educated voters, probably many of whom listen to talk radio, watch Fox News, etc. Romney’s been around long enough people should know he’s a fraud.

---

Maybe I have been listening at the wrong time, but it seems that many on Fox are too impressed with Romney. Laura Ingraham also seems to have nice things to say about him. Did you hear her interview with GeorgeStephanopoulos? She really seems to trust him. Rush remains a strong intelligent conservative. I'm not sure what is going on, but it seems under the surface, some are gently pushing their favorite. Maybe I'm wrong?

[ejdrapes]

[stephenjohnbanker]

You sold me. When you’re Wright, you’re Wright! ;-)

[free me]

The poll from the Economist included Palin. That’s why it’s more worthwhile.

“Some other candidate” isn’t a choice in the first question asked in the Rasmussen poll:

“1* If the 2012 Republican Primary for President were held today would you vote for Mitt Romney, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, Newt Gingrich, Michele Bachmann, Rick Santorum, Herman Cain or Jon Huntsman?”

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/toplines/questions_gop_primary_june_14_2011

Worthless.

[9YearLurker]

Deceptive poll, leaving out expected but undeclared candidates and not listing any option for ‘other’.

Once you’ve started with that, Romney is the only candidate listed with widespread name recognition. Additionally, this was taken just as the all-pervasive media boiled the debate down to a victory for #1 Romney and #2 Bachmann.

[SoConPubbie]

Diogenesis:

Does it really matter whether she is a nasty, backstabbing RomneyBOT without judgment OR an incompetent docile RINO-plaything?

You:

Bachmannn a Romney Bot? You’re deranged.

Can you read ejdrapes?

[Linda Frances]

however, there is a large swath of republicans who consider themselves conservatives who are not as tuned in as you or I. Those are the people that don't know about the individual mandate in Romneycare. You don't see Romney touting it do you? He knows that he doesn't want it out there. How Romneycare is Obamacare

---

This summer I bet the tea party will have a commercial telling all the truth about Romney. I will be donating to get that commercial pushed nationally.

[SoConPubbie]

Why is a poll from the economist anymore worthwhile than one from Rasmussen?

How about the obvious, it actually includes Sarah Palin explicitly in the poll instead of some vague reference to "Other".

[CincyRichieRich]

Those polled at home numbers only; how many WORKING folks are home? Not many less a few self-employed. Poll is bogus. Have to poll folks on cell phones, too. Laura Ingram mentioned this today.

[no dems]

NOW, THIS IS SURPRISING:

Romney and Bachmann are tied among primary voters who say they are Tea Party members, with 26% support each.