[B4Ranch]

I am not trying to be rude but can you tell us all exactly how accurate SolarHam.com is with their predictions about solar activity. Our local weathermen cannot forecast the weather here in the mountains accurately five days ahead of time and these folks are expecting me to believe them for the next decade?

[no-to-illegals]

I “second” your comment. Gee, and I saw a picture of the Sun exploding not even a week ago. SunkenCiv posted it (I think), but my thinking goes into non-thinking sometimes.

[Interesting Times]

It isn't a question of believing "Solarham.com." This is research by the top solar experts.

[PapaBear3625]

I am not trying to be rude but can you tell us all exactly how accurate SolarHam.com is with their predictions about solar activity.

SolarHam does not originate it, he provides an aggregation point from a lot of sources. The first chart was from NASA at http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/images/ssn_predict_l.gif and the second chart was created from data from NOAA/SWPC (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Space Weather Prediction Center) by http://www.solen.info/

[PapaBear3625]

Addendum to my prior post: The graph predicting the solar cycle comes from NASA, and they've been modifying their prediction model practically every month as new data comes in. I've been saving their old graphs (some recovered from internet archives). In July 2007 they were predicting cycle 24 would peak in 2011 at around 150 (higher peak than cycle 23 at 120). In November 2009, as cycle 24 was delayed in starting, they shifted their estimate to a peak of 80 in 2013. In February 2011 they had the peak as 58. Now they have it as 70 in 2013.

My personal suspicion is that they were right the first time as to the peak occurring in 2011, but were very wrong in the predicted level. I suspect that we're at the peak, or close to it, and that this cycle will resemble the Dalton Minimum. If cycle 24 looks like it's on a down swing in late fall, stock up, because we may have a bad winter and a bad planting season in 2012.