Posted on 06/08/2011 5:53:19 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
Could it be sitting Democrats in the House of Representatives haven’t rushed to push for Rep. Anthony Weiner’s (R-NY) resignation because they need him to absorb a redistricting blow? Some sources seem to think so:
New York will lose two seats when the U.S. House gets reconfigured to reflect population shifts recorded in the 2010 U.S. census. The state’s redistricting will be decided by the New York State Assembly in Albany, the capital, with the expected result being an overhaul that would cut a Republican seat upstate and a Democratic seat downstate. …
Before the news about Weiner’s scandal broke, it was unclear which Democrat would get cut downstate. Now, the New York Democratic sources say, it’s hard to imagine Weiner’s district will still exist in the 2012 election.
Two of the sources, both Democratic strategists in New York, said that scenario helps explain why New York Democrats haven’t rushed to call for Weiner to resign.
The redistricting option might be the most interesting of the potential conclusions to the Weinergate scandal. Whether Weiner will resign is still up in the air, despite recent Democratic calls for him to step down. But even if Weiner does resign, as Ed pointed out today on his radio show, Republicans are unlikely to win his district. True, the 9th District has supported Democratic presidential nominees by waning percentages — 67 percent for Al Gore in 2000, 56 percent for John Kerry in 2004 and 55 percent for Barack Obama in 2008. The District is ranked as the second-most conservative in New York City. But Weiner himself has always won by large margins and a Republican hasn’t held the seat since the 1920s. Redistricting seems more likely. Weiner has made himself vulnerable to the ill-will of his party — and no doubt other Democrats will be happy to let him be the redistricting scapegoat. Nate Silver puts it this way:
But it is precisely because Democratic seats in New York City are hard to lose that they are such valuable commodities. The likelihood that there will be one fewer of them next year makes them scarce commodities, too — and Mr. Weiner is unlikely to get a free pass, however the new boundaries are drawn.
Well that’s that then. The Dems will use this as a way out. They won’t have to pressure Wiener to quit and they won’t have to worry about infighting over who loses their seat due to redistricting. They come out smelling like a rose once again.
I also think the FL pubbie possee has got their redistricting eye on my own congress critter, Debbie who is also the DNC Chair. That would be quite a feather in Rick Scott’s cap. Her district is this ribbon affair twisting and turning for almost thirty miles from central Broward County (Tamarac) all the way to Miami Beach. Gerrymandered to Debbie’s exact specifications. She could run and win there for 50 years. But, its weakness may be the serpentine quality of it.It could be easy to break up in our one party state. Thank you Barry. Maybe Debbie saw the writing on the wall when she took the DNC Chair. No one said she was stupid. AND, they could run ads saying Weiner’s exhihitionism was his personal business. There morph them.
I think this is the Dems’ strategy anyway. Resignation by redistricting. Only now the groundswell of calls for resignation are getting too big to ignore.
He’s the prime candidate to lose the seat, for sure.
This is one of the stupidest memes I've heard on the media lately.
OK, I’ll say it: SHE’S STUPID!
The only NYC area R that could be drawn out of a seat is Peter King. Grimm’s seat can grow only one way (by taking up more of Brooklyn) but it can’t grow enough to take in another Democrat.
Republicans do hold the state senate - so there must be a compromise. At first I anticipated King vs. McCarthy or King vs. Israel. But apparently committee chairmen carry a great deal of clout, so there will be a deal to pair two Rats in NYC and two Pubbies upstate.
More later on my redistricting thread.
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