A fundamental concept is that the economy is a chaotic system, a complex system with self-referential feedback. Mathematicians know that one cannot predict the effect any driver will have on such a system. In economies, I think, the proof is the confusion evident in that schooled economists are diametrically opposed on conviction as to what may happen as a result of some specified top down action. I say that the trajectory of economic systems cannot be predicted or controlled given our current understanding of chaotic systems. The same driver can have a much different effect each time it is used, even when the initial conditions seem the same. Very confusing.
For now, we can only ride out the usual storms, the systemic excursions, and trust that the feedback within the system will yield a positive outcome for its participants, letting a bottoms up approach stabilize and restore apparently errant gross moves, a necessary condition of any system that endures long term.
I think it was Yogi Berra who put it a little bit more succinctly:
"Predictions are hard especially about the future."
