Sarah is Patriotic
Posted on 05/21/2011 4:08:46 AM PDT by onyx
I left out the “positive intensity score” because I think that it pointlessly emphasizes “strongly unfavorable”.
If you’re going to look at numbers to try to guess what the outcome of the republican primary is going to be, it would be nice to look at the most relevant numbers.
When there are 10 candidates, and there pretty much are now, does it matter, really, if your opinion of a candidate is negative or strongly negative? Whether it’s negative, or strongly negative, you’re not likely to be getting your votes from people with a negative opinion of you, especially when you’re measuring for the Republican Primary.
What are the numbers that are going to be relevant to Republican Primary votes? Name recognition and strongly favorable are the key. With 10 candidates, you should be able to find someone you have a strongly favorable opinion of to vote for.
Palin has by far the highest name recognition x strongly favorable of any of the candidates. Best known, and best liked of the most well known.
The strongly disfavors might be useful in a general, but since we’re measuring Primary, they’re much less relevant.
The reason we have these numbers, and poorly explained numbers, is to present a number where Palin is not at the top. And then, instead of pointing out that Palin is well known and well liked, much more so than any of the other front runners, they can talk about a made up, irrelevant for Primary, number, where candidates who aren’t well known at all can out perform Palin.
They want to write a story where Palin isn’t winning. The useful numbers all point to Palin. But Palin’s Positive Intensity score (although higher that the well known front runners) is below less known candidates.
What do you make of that, onyx? I was looking forward to seeing her be one of the first and most articulate responders to Ozero’s outrageous offense towards Israel. Her silence has been unsettling.
Patience. You will hear from Sarah today, we will all hear from Sarah today! She will take the Marxist and put him in his place.
Certainly somebody with low name recognition could come on to the scene.
That said, where has such a person been over the last two years while Obama and the Democrats in Congress have been destroying our country?
Potential candidates such as Palin and Bachmann have been out front putting their necks on the line. That's why they have high name recognition. Meanwhile, the low name recognition types have been hiding from the fight.
Tea Party types and Republicans won't forget that come primary time.
There are a lot of people who would be great as VP. Still, the reasons on who to choose are not based on who we like but on what they bring to the ticket.
Someone who:
1. Can deliver a state or a constituency group. For example, Cain and the black vote, Rubio and the Hispanic vote or Daniels to solidify Indiana.
2. To shore up perceived areas of inexperience. Ryan would give major credentials for the economy and budgets. Romney or Cain for their business background. This could also include a senator to help her deal with the insiders in DC.
3. The person being groomed to follow in 8 years. Christie to give him federal executive experience. Bachmann or Pence to overcome the lower name recognition and to skip the needed executive experience.
Cain has no political experience that can be used to evaluate him. I am looking for a candidate who has been a governor.
Daniels is pro-choice and a bit too friendly with muslims.
Rubio looks good, except for his mixed record regarding illegal immigration.
http://www.ontheissues.org/senate/Marco_Rubio.htm
I still have some interest in Bachmann, but I’m not sure how much she would add to the ticket.
Sarah is Patriotic
We are 10 months away from the primaries and 18 months away from the general election. I wouldn't put much value in the so-called polls.
In early 1980, at the start of the primaries, and 9 months before the general election, Reagan was behind Bush in the polls by a lot for the nomination and he was behind Carter by 32 points in the polls for the general election.
I believe in 1976, Carter lead Ford by about 30 or more points in the polls only months before the election. Carter won by ~ 2 points.
The 1996 polls showed Clinton beating Bush by between about 10 and 18 points on election eve.
You may choose to hug the polls. I won't.
****************************
Agreed.
Dole was the GOP candidate in 1996, not Bush. Also, the polls before that election did not show Dole (or anyone else) ahead of Clinton, much less by 10 points though they did show some erosion in Clinton's lead.
I was using examples to make the point. I’m sure there are other people who would add to the ticket just as well if not better.
>> “GWB afforded him SS protection from the get-go.” <<
.
He did everything he could do to get Obama elected.
Do not forget it!
W and Laura will work overtime to obstruct Palin’s election.
I neither "hug" them, nor disregard them.
A question: if not polls, where do you obtain your sense of Mrs. Palin's "populartity" or "electability" throughout this land?
No problem. I’m sure I have opinions about them, too. :)
Dole was the GOP candidate in 1996, not Bush. Also, the polls before that election did not show Dole (or anyone else) ahead of Clinton, much less by 10 points though they did show some erosion in Clinton's lead.
I meant 1992.
Sarah Is Dedicated
It appears the real deadline for Sarah to join the fray will be in January or February of 2012.
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/events.phtml?s=c
I have no definitive sense, one way or the other, Palin's popularity.
I would guess that right off the bat, Palin would probably have at least 43% of the vote in the general election and that there a plenty of additional voters who don't like Obama's policies and would be available for the taking.
OK....since we're talking about "guessing"....I'll guess that if she is the candidate for the republican ticket, and indeed runs in the national campaign, come election morning, she'll garner not over 23% of the popular vote, and about 10 or fewer electoral votes.
We all do which is why I rarely talk about the candidate de jour Freepers jump for.
An interesting and fun exercise is to envision who a President Palin could choose for the various cabinet positions. For example, I’d love to see John Bolton as Sec. of State. Or, Herman Cain at Commerce. I’d love to see all the departments shaken up by a President Palin demanding something like a 10% reduction of federal workers in every department. That includes every 0bama sycophant who tries to switch to some agency once 0 loses.
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