[Logic n' Reason]

I would guess that right off the bat, Palin would probably have at least 43% of the vote in the general election

OK....since we're talking about "guessing"....I'll guess that if she is the candidate for the republican ticket, and indeed runs in the national campaign, come election morning, she'll garner not over 23% of the popular vote, and about 10 or fewer electoral votes.

[FreeReign]

I would guess that right off the bat, Palin would probably have at least 43% of the vote in the general election.

OK....since we're talking about "guessing"....I'll guess that if she is the candidate for the republican ticket, and indeed runs in the national campaign, come election morning, she'll garner not over 23% of the popular vote, and about 10 or fewer electoral votes.

Okay that's your guess and I think it's a terrible one. History shows that most Republicans and most Independents leaning Republican vote Republican in the general election. As I said, that should give Palin some place on the low forties, right off the bat.

I won't even ask you what you based your guess on.