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THE BIG WINNER: ROMNEY
Dick Morris .com ^ | May 16,2011 | Dick Morris And Eileen McGann

Posted on 05/17/2011 6:21:56 AM PDT by Hojczyk

Now that two of the top three candidates for the Republican nomination have pulled out of the race, the big winner is the one candidate left standing: Mitt Romney.

The polling before Huckabee and Trump pulled out was — in my survey — Romney-22, Huckabee-20, Trump-15, Gingrich-11, Palin-9, Bachmann-6, Pawlenty-3, and Daniels-2.

Now, Romney will inherit a large proportion of the votes left on the table by Huckabee’s and Trump’s withdrawal. My polling suggests that, based on the expressed second choices of the Huckabee and Trump voters, Romney will get 30% of Huckabee’s voters and 40% of Trump’s. These additions should lift him over 30% of the vote and give him a 2:1 lead over the nearest contender (Gingrich).

Romney was having a terrible week. His speech on health care was terrible. With Massachusetts up in arms over Romney-care and Republicans dead set against the individual and employer mandate, his failure to repudiate his program would have cost him dearly. But now he is sitting on top of the world.

Republicans are a legitimist group. Having run before and paid his dues since, Romney is broadly attractive. He is seen as most likely to handle the economy successfully and most likely to defeat Obama. He new has the decided edge.

Gingrich, Bachmann, Daniels, and Pawlenty are the obvious other beneficiaries of the shifting cast of characters.

For Newt, the key is the debates that begin on June 7. (Tune into on to dickmorris.com for my play-by-play commentary — in writing — on the debate as it unfolds and for my video commentary on it as soon as it is over). If Newt can establish that his intellectual and rhetorical prowess can overcome his personal negatives, he could be on his way to a strong run at the nomination. But perhaps they won’t be enough. We’ll see.

For Bachmann, the key is to announce right away, first to keep Palin out of the race (Huckabee’s withdrawal will encourage her to run) and to lay claim to the evangelicals and Tea Party folks who would have backed Mike. Recent polling shows that the evangelicals and the Tea Party supporters are substantially the same people. They would be the base of a Bachmann candidacy and Michele needs to go out and claim them.

For Daniels, the withdrawal of Trump opens the way for him to become the main establishment business community rival to Romney. And Huckabee’s withdrawal opens the door for conservatives to support him as well. He needs also to announce soon to get into the fray.

For Pawlenty, the withdrawals may open the way into the race. With candidates as formidable as Trump and Huckabee sitting on their vote shares, there was little the former Minnesota Governor could do to get a word in edgewise. Now the way is open for him to get into the fray.

But the big, big winner is Romney. It is now a rebuttable presumption that Romney will likely be the nominee. And that’s huge.


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: badloserromney; benedictromney; fumr; loserromney; miltromney; mittens; mittromney; morris4dnc; morris4milt; morris4obamacare; morris4romneycare; romney; romney4obamacare; toesuckercentral; tokyorove
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Comment #61 Removed by Moderator

To: Hojczyk

Morris must have missed Newt’s suicide on Meet the Press last Sunday.


62 posted on 05/17/2011 7:33:15 AM PDT by Old Retired Army Guy
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To: All

Even with the fundrasing, the two things that will hurt Rommy is RommyCARE and being a Mormon.


63 posted on 05/17/2011 7:33:53 AM PDT by Biggirl ("Jesus talked to us as individuals"-Jim Vicevich/Thanks JimV!)
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To: Mr. K

I’d love to see things narrow down to candidates with real conservative ideas debating each other, and demonstrating who is the most effective candidate and potential leader. Palin, Cain, Bachmann, and yes, even Paul, to bring his ideas to the game for debate.


64 posted on 05/17/2011 7:40:56 AM PDT by Atlas Sneezed (End the "Fiscal Fiasco" in 2012!)
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To: Biggirl

‘Rommy will not last, two reasons, ROMMYcare and being a MORON.’

I changed your post just a wee little bit.


65 posted on 05/17/2011 7:43:26 AM PDT by Waryone (RINOs, Elites, and Socialists - on the endangered list, soon to become extinct.)
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To: Waryone

I should read the entire thread next time before I post!


66 posted on 05/17/2011 7:44:43 AM PDT by Waryone (RINOs, Elites, and Socialists - on the endangered list, soon to become extinct.)
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To: Hojczyk
Dick Morris has FLIP-FLOPPED for FLIP-FLOPPER

"Despite outspending his rivals by huge margins throughout the primaries,
(Mitt Romney, Carpetbagger UT,CA,MA,NH,Mexico) lost Iowa, South Carolina, Florida and California.
The only primaries he won were in Michigan, where Dad was governor; LDS states;
and a few states on Super Tuesday in which his California-obsessed rivals
couldn't spare the cash to advertise.
Only John Connolly in 1968 had a worse cash-to-delegates ratio.
And John McCain rightly did not like Romney's tactics during the primaries.
(W)hen (Romney's early leads) started slipping away, he resorted to unfair,
distorted, scorched-earth negative ads, betting that his opponents couldn't
afford to spend enough for the truth to catch up to his charges."

[Romney: A Mistake for McCain, 7/23/2008, Dick Morris]



67 posted on 05/17/2011 7:48:06 AM PDT by Diogenesis ( Vi veri veniversum vivus vici)
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To: PSYCHO-FREEP

Sure about few things at my age! ;-)

Just sharing how I see it, as everyone else here.....


68 posted on 05/17/2011 7:50:12 AM PDT by Arlis (- Virginia loghome/woods-dweller/Jesus lovin'/Bible-totin'/"gun-clinger")
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To: bwc2221
Hannity and he is a babbling moron.

True dat!

69 posted on 05/17/2011 8:43:25 AM PDT by Getsmart64
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To: andy58-in-nh

+1


70 posted on 05/17/2011 8:44:07 AM PDT by Getsmart64
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To: Puppage
Having run before and paid his dues since, Romney is broadly attractive.

In other words, he has nice hair.
71 posted on 05/17/2011 9:53:54 AM PDT by crosshairs (Say what you want about the South, but you never hear of anyone retiring and moving north.)
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To: brownsfan
Romney is a disaster, but I’d vote for him in a heartbeat over Obama.

Why? I won't vote at all. I figure either one of them is sending the U.S. on a highway to hell. With Hussein, it will just be over faster, like ripping off a band-aid.
72 posted on 05/17/2011 9:56:53 AM PDT by crosshairs (Say what you want about the South, but you never hear of anyone retiring and moving north.)
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To: Hojczyk
For Bachmann, the key is to announce right away, first to keep Palin out of the race (Huckabee’s withdrawal will encourage her to run)

It's a primary, Dick...what's one have to do with the other?

73 posted on 05/17/2011 10:38:26 AM PDT by hattend (Obama is better than OJ... He found a killer while on the golf course.)
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To: crosshairs

“Why? I won’t vote at all. I figure either one of them is sending the U.S. on a highway to hell. With Hussein, it will just be over faster, like ripping off a band-aid.”

Because I’m old. If I can delay the trip to hell I will. With a little luck, I could miss that particular ride altogether.


74 posted on 05/17/2011 10:46:24 AM PDT by brownsfan (I miss the America I grew up in.)
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To: PSYCHO-FREEP; Arlis

You think that the social conservatives that supported Huckabee and are the people that blocked Romney in 2008 and that most oppose Romney now, are the ones that he depended on for his fund raising stunt?

How weird will you get to attack Palin?


75 posted on 05/17/2011 11:34:57 AM PDT by ansel12 ( JIM DEMINT "I believe [Palins] done more for the Republican Party than anyone since Ronald Reagan")
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To: Puppage

I know it~! Since he was THE LOSER last time, to THE LOSER McLame who LOST TO OBAMA.. what makes “Mitt” think he is the guy ?

He lost to the guy who lost to obama... tham means he sucks WORSE doesnt it???


76 posted on 05/17/2011 12:00:14 PM PDT by Mr. K (this administration is WEARING OUT MY CAPSLOCK KEY~!! [Palin/Bachman 2012])
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To: bwc2221

While I find Hannity dull and repetitive, moron is a bit harsh. My guess is his IQ is over 100 which means he isn’t moronic from an objective standpoint.


77 posted on 05/17/2011 12:18:14 PM PDT by conservativebuckeye
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To: ansel12

Boy, I must be dense, as I’m not understanding you at all.

Attack Palin? Never. She’s one of my favs, with Michelle Bachman and Cain.......

Are you smoking something?


78 posted on 05/17/2011 2:48:24 PM PDT by Arlis (- Virginia loghome/woods-dweller/Jesus lovin'/Bible-totin'/"gun-clinger")
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To: Arlis

That was only a courtesy ping to you, I was making the post to challenge PSYCHO-FREEP’s post to you.


79 posted on 05/17/2011 3:14:44 PM PDT by ansel12 ( JIM DEMINT "I believe [Palins] done more for the Republican Party than anyone since Ronald Reagan")
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To: ansel12

Finally something is making sense! Thank you!


80 posted on 05/17/2011 11:24:06 PM PDT by Arlis (- Virginia loghome/woods-dweller/Jesus lovin'/Bible-totin'/"gun-clinger")
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