Posted on 05/08/2011 10:12:39 AM PDT by Clintonfatigued
George Allen and Timothy M. Kaine are locked in a dead heat 18 months from Election Day, according to a new Washington Post poll, suggesting that the U.S. Senate race between the Virginia titans may live up to its billing as one of the most competitive contests in the nation.
The candidates are tied at 46 percent among registered voters in the battle to succeed retiring Sen. James Webb (D). Neither Allen (R) nor Kaine (D) is guaranteed his partys nomination, but the survey shows that both men enjoy huge leads over potential intraparty opponents.
The 2012 contest will play out in a state that has changed dramatically in recent years. Kaine the former governor and Democratic National Committee chairman draws strong support in portions of Northern Virginia, which has rapidly gained population, wealth and political clout. Allen, the ex-governor and senator, remains stronger in the rest of the state.
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...
Remind everyone of the truth: Kaine is a Hussein Cultist. That should take him down in Virginia to about 15% of the vote.
They won't forget.
Yeh.. Northern Va. has plenty of liberals be it natives, transplants or foreigners. Its gonna be a fight and the race could be separated by only 1-2 percentage points in the end.
The Washington Post typically oversamples democrats. This poll shows a mirror image of voter sentiment on the democrat/Republican voters, 86-10 and 10-85, with independents in favor of Allen 49-39. http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/politics/virginia-senate-2012-an-early-look/2011/05/07/AF9j97LG_graphic.html
With such an overwhelming independent vote on Allen’s side, and a mirror-image breakout on the democrat/Republican vote, the only way you could end up with a 46-46 tie is if you counted more democrats to balance out the independents.
The Post polls usually do this in Virginia elections. The Republican in early polls always shows up badly because of the democrat weighting. They hope to create a bandwagon effect for the democrat and demoralize the Republican base.
I agree. I should have said “far worse.”
I was about to say the same thing.
But if Allen is tied with Kaine at 46% among registered voters, Allen’s probably up by only like 49%-43% among likely voters. Allen can’t afford to get cocky in this race.
I just saw that the Washington Post used the same sample of registered voters for its Allen-Kaine poll as for its presidential-race poll that (risibly) has Obama thumping all Republican candidates: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/postpoll_050042011_MON.html
So, among likely voters, Allen is probably up by more than the 6% I estimated.
not to mention Portsmouth, Norfolk, Suffolk..here’s hoping the grassroots voter show up in large numbers. Also..Richmond?
not to mention Portsmouth, Norfolk, Suffolk..here’s hoping the grassroots voter show up in large numbers. Also..Richmond?
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.