Posted on 05/07/2011 7:16:50 AM PDT by TigerLikesRooster
Friday, May 6, 2011
Rare Earths Seen Growing Less Rare
SYDNEY (Dow Jones)--Demand for rare earth elements that has driven up prices more than tenfold since 2009 is likely to be met by a surplus of supply by 2013, as Western companies start up new mines to compete with the Chinese firms that now dominate the market, Goldman Sachs analysts predicted Thursday.
The forecast calls into question the sustainability of the current boom in rare earths, a suite of 17 elements used in products from high-powered magnets, and fuel refining to energy-efficient light bulbs and mobile phone screens, as well as the shares of companies seeking to produce them.
Prices of rare earths hovered between $5 a kilogram and $20 a kilo from the early 1990s until 2010. But a 40% cut in export quotas by China, which accounts for 90% of global rare earth production, sent prices soaring. The basket price of rare earths held in Lynas Corp. Ltd.'s Mount Weld deposit in western Australia - the largest non-Chinese mine, due to come to production in the next few years - has jumped to an average of $162.66 kilos from just $10.32 kilos in 2009.
Goldman's view differs from that of miners. In a presentation last month, Lynas forecast that global demand for rare earths, which include neodymium, cerium and lanthanum, will outstrip supply by 35,000 tons this year and in 2012. Annual supply shortfalls of around 20,000 tons are expected in 2013 and 2014, it added. It predicted long-term prices in the $120/kg-to-$180/kg range.
(Excerpt) Read more at e.nikkei.com ...
P!
Get ready.....
I just want to celebrate......
Well, well. Another “national security” crisis avoided. What a relief. Just hope one of our east asian allies never goes to war with China over a small island in the pacific that is buried in seagull droppings.
The rare earths are rare only in comparison to more common elements such as silicon and aluminum. They are found in vast quantities throughout the lithosphere, and at $150 per kg they can be profitably mined at sites all over the world. China happens to have a combination of rich deposits and cheap labor that will naturally dominate the market when the price is $10/kg, but we can get this stuff almost as cheaply from Utah if necessary.
Yup. Problem is rare earths tend to be found in slightly more radioactive soil. Now that’s not a safety issue. But it is a political one. Namely, getting the EPA to sign off on new mining permits is near impossible. Therefor we will continue to have to import them...
Canadian companies can help us get around our own idiot EPA.
Goldman Sachs must be shorting rare earths.
Rare earth elements is the name, they are not rare, damn!!!! China mines most of them because of cheap labor.
At least two are scarce on the market today, and both could be mined in Alaska.
True!!!!!
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