Posted on 05/06/2011 10:14:56 AM PDT by Chi-townChief
It’s the oldest truism in politics: You can’t beat something with nothing. For 2012, the Democrats have something: Barack Obama. The Republicans, so far, have nothing.
This could change. But who is going to change it? And when? It may seem like the Republicans have lots of time until the 2012 campaign, but they do not.
Obama is already running for re-election and already raising money. Lots of money. For the GOP, the sands are rushing through the hourglass.
Item: The Quinnipiac poll finds “Still No Clear Leader in GOP Field.” Pollster Peter Brown says: “It is difficult to get a handle on the 2012 Republican race. Many contenders are not well-known, and many who are known are not liked, making their candidacies problematic.”
The killing of Osama bin Laden by the Obama administration shows what a difference a death can make. Not to world security — that is still dicey. But the Republican field has been fried like an egg.
Item: “The day after a one-day Washington Post poll found Obama getting a nine-point bounce in his approval rating, a new two-day New York Times/CBS survey shows the president’s numbers increasing 11 points, from 46 percent last month to 57 percent now,” says First Read. “The increase in Mr. Obama’s ratings came largely from Republicans and independents.”
Item: Bruce Keough, the 2008 director of Mitt Romney’s New Hampshire campaign, says he won’t rejoin in 2012 because, according to a Mother Jones interview, “he’s no longer sure what Romney stands for.” Keough says: “I don’t think the voters are looking for somebody who’s going to be recasting himself.”
No matter how well Republicans did as a party in the last congressional elections, their presidential field was shallow in 2008 — and it is shallow today.
In 2008, the Republican order of finish based on delegates to the nominating convention was: John McCain, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Ron Paul, Fred Thompson and Duncan Hunter. Rudy Giuliani ran in the primaries but ended up with no delegates. The rest of the field of Alan Keyes, Sam Brownback, Tom Tancredo, etc., withdrew before the primaries.
Take a gander at those names and tell me how many you can see in the Oval Office running the country today? Two? One? None?
Here is the Republican field for 2012 based on the highly useful Real Clear Politics average of leading polls. The potential candidates are, in order: Huckabee, Romney, Donald Trump, Sarah Palin, Newt Gingrich, Paul, Michele Bachmann, Tim Pawlenty, Mitch Daniels and Rick Santorum. Others may enter. Huckabee is polling at 16.6 percent; Romney, 16.5; Trump, 16.3, and Palin, 10.1. The rest are in single digits.
How many would make you comfortable if they were sitting in the Oval Office, making decisions about the economy, health care, education, the environment and war and peace?
If you came up with any names at all, how confident are you that any one of them could defeat Obama?
And now you see the problem for the Republicans. It’s not the billion dollars Obama is expected to raise, it’s not that he has gone through a presidential general election campaign while none of the Republicans have (except Palin), it’s not his oratorical skills and mastery of the issues, it’s the image he has created based upon his record of a competent, cool, skilled, experienced, capable leader.
Has he done things that have disappointed Democrats and enraged Republicans? Of course; especially his perilous policy of continuing the war in Afghanistan and his launching of a confused and confusing war in Libya.
But Obama also rescued the economy, saved the auto industry, expanded health care to millions of children, passed health-care reform for everybody, repealed the ban on gays serving openly in the military and eased restrictions on stem-cell research.
And oh, yeah, he found and killed Osama bin Laden.
Does this mean we don’t need an election campaign in 2012 and that Obama has already won?
Nope. He has vulnerabilities. He is going to have to defend a four-year record. And the economy could tank. Even further. The Republicans could beat this guy. All they have to do is find someone to do it.
They have to find a candidate who is smart, gutsy, nimble, creative, credible, determined and capable of raising vast sums of money.
Give me a minute, and I’ll try to come up with a name.
You sound like a WH operative trying to depress the base. Can you cite any evidence of this overwhelming strength? Were you in a Coma when Obummer got his a$$ handed to him in the midterms? If he is so powerful, why are his polls constantly hovering in the low 40’s?
That makes sense because once the voting took place in the primaries it was very solid for Reagan. I was surprised on how bad Bush was in the polls in the Silver piece. He was barely alive. Bush was sharp and lively in the ‘80 debates though. Not like his run in ‘88 and of course ‘92.
What hurts the GOP is its innate cowardice and the unwillingness of tens of millions of American voters to admit that they are wrong.
No, the media used DE, WV, CO, NV, CA, WA, and AK Senate races to negate the House results.
You are right; the AMERICAN PEOPLE can’t understand much of anything.
Yes, he has failed, but the American people don’t know that and aren’t likely to find out.
The Democrats have Soros, Crony Capitalists, the Media, Gays, and a big chunk of the population that pays no taxes (esp. the ones who pay no taxes, but “Earned Income Tax Credits” back).
Thats a heck of a starting position.
Who cares about the media spin. The Rats were decimated on all levels in ‘10. Fact was the ‘10 was a very bad year for GOP Senate pick up and we held our own and added a few. There is no way a Conservative was supposed to win in blue PA. ‘12 will be a Senate bloodbath for the Rats and they know it. Look who is up. If we have decent candidates, we will do well. That will also work against Obummers reelection.
Sounds like someone was truly inspired by Bobby DeNiro's portrayal of Al Capone:
"You got nuthin' -- NUU-THINNNN'!!!
And what about Sarah Palin, Sun-Times seer of seeings and channeler of channelings?
"I want him dead! I want his family dead! I want his house burned to the ground!"
Aw, c'mon, Roger. Quit hiding behind your JournoListing professionalism and tell us what you really think!
Crayfisher.
Her name is Sarah, stupid. See you in 2012. Maybe if you're lucky, she'll grant you an exclusive on Election Night, and you can come up to her suite where her family and friends can horse-laugh you.
Yeah, because he's black, and he's promised the Mexicans great power over us gueros by offering their illegals the vote.
(Old movie line: "I'll give you power, Jor-El!!")
</movies>
And you seem like an idiot.
I'm starting to think this guy is high on kool-aid. I don't think Palin or Trump would have any trouble beating Odumbo. Of course, Republicans will probably squabble until the only choice left is an old guard Rino. So this guy could be right.
Good job on getting my info (I didn’t mind:o)) and displaying it when I checked your profile. I want to share your optimism re 2012 but whether it’s justified or not, it won’t hurt to fight like we’re behind.
I'm not. I watched the debate of Republican second-string (or are they?) candidates last night, and was pleasantly surprised that they hit Obozo hard and fearlessly. We DO have something to run on: the Obozo's record, and our disagreement with it. We're not going to have a feeble McCaniac this time.
I'm not. I watched the debate of Republican second-string (or are they?) candidates last night, and was pleasantly surprised that they hit Obozo hard and fearlessly. We DO have something to run on: the Obozo's record, and our disagreement with it. We're not going to have a feeble McCainiac this time.
I couldn't figure out what you were talking about. I had to go see for myself. I forgot about that stupid gadget. I was alarmed that my page knew where I was at first glance. LOL
No, I expected a bump in his ratings. We’re 18 months out, for crying out loud! By then, people will be asking, “What have you done for me lately?”
“But Obama also rescued the economy, saved the auto industry, expanded health care to millions of children, passed health-care reform for everybody”
That was all I needed to see to know this guy is a few cans short of a six-pack.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.