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Silver's Shine Is Fading Fast. Tumbles in the Last Two Days, Quickly Losing 10 percent.
CNBC ^ | 05/04/2011 | Patti Domm

Posted on 05/04/2011 6:27:30 AM PDT by SeekAndFind

Silver's shine is fading fast, and the market for the precious metal may have reached a top in a speculative, mad dash by ETF investors.

"The last move higher over the last month or so has really been driven by the strength of the retail investment demand, so the levels up here are not supported," said Suki Cooper, precious metals analyst with Barclays Capital.

"At levels above $40, we've seen some concern rising on the industrial demand side. The last leg higher has been investment-driven, rather than fundamentally supported. In that respect, the correction was due. I would say from a demand support point of view, we have levels that have been tested in other metals, but we haven't had a chance to test that in silver," said Cooper. "I think now prices are going to test where physical support comes in."

Silver [SICV1] has tumbled in the last two days, with Comex futures losing 10 percent on Tuesday alone, and the July contract finishing at $42.585 an ounce. Silver came within reach of $50 an ounce last week, and its all time nominal high, just above that level. The popular iShares Silver Trust ETF [SLV] lost more than 5 percent Tuesday, on volume of more than 211 million shares.

Moves by the CME to curb speculative buying with three increases in margin requirements in the last week have helped cool the metal's run.

"When something's on fire, there's lots of finger pointing. You've seen it in oil, and you're seeing it now of course in silver," said John Stephenson of First Asset Investment Management, in an interview on "Fast Money," in response to a question on the increase in margin requirements.

(Excerpt) Read more at cnbc.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Culture/Society; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: price; silver
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To: SeekAndFind

In stock trading circles it’s called a correction. After the correction take how much it corrected and add it to the peak and you have the new target, say $59’ish........


21 posted on 05/04/2011 8:04:11 AM PDT by stockpirate (If they vote for socialism, support socialists, they're socialists duh....Ech bin ein Paliner)
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To: theBuckwheat

I just started reading the T, sent there by errant.


22 posted on 05/04/2011 8:06:33 AM PDT by stockpirate (If they vote for socialism, support socialists, they're socialists duh....Ech bin ein Paliner)
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To: theBuckwheat

what is a contract of silver? One (1) 100 oz englehard bar?? I wouldnt mind a contract being delivered if it crashes or dips ;)


23 posted on 05/04/2011 8:08:44 AM PDT by DCBryan1 (FORGET the lawyers...first kill the "journalists". (Die Ritter der Kokosnuss))
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To: stockpirate

RE: After the correction take how much it corrected and add it to the peak and you have the new target, say $59’ish........


Just curious, how did you come up with this formula?


24 posted on 05/04/2011 8:11:17 AM PDT by SeekAndFind (u)
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To: SeekAndFind

THe same way turd did, it’s in the text books for the test....same way he picks the support levels.......


25 posted on 05/04/2011 8:17:58 AM PDT by stockpirate (If they vote for socialism, support socialists, they're socialists duh....Ech bin ein Paliner)
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To: SeekAndFind

Also, now that it broke 40, which should have held better the next support level is the 50 MA which is $38.67’ish...

If it reaches there then out that $11.00 on top of the 49.75 and it gives us a new target.


26 posted on 05/04/2011 8:22:22 AM PDT by stockpirate (If they vote for socialism, support socialists, they're socialists duh....Ech bin ein Paliner)
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To: SeekAndFind
Large volume buyers who started at $25, are taking over 100% profits. After that volume dissipates, the market will settle down and start to increase again. I look for around $35 to be the turning point. Unless some new World crisis pops up and changes the dynamics.

Gold is less volatile, since so many foreign governments have hedged their currencies with it. China and India are just two among several doing this.

Silver is the most volatile since it is mostly traded by private and industrial interests.

27 posted on 05/04/2011 8:23:00 AM PDT by PSYCHO-FREEP (Patriotic by Proxy! (Cause I'm a nutcase and it's someone Else's' fault!....))
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To: RobRoy

Exactly. I don’t buy PMs to “make money” but to preserve buying power.


28 posted on 05/04/2011 8:24:57 AM PDT by MrB (The difference between a Humanist and a Satanist - the latter knows whom he's working for)
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To: MrB
I don’t buy PMs to “make money” but to preserve buying power.

In 1948 one silver dime would buy you a gallon of gasoline. That same silver dime today converted to dollars would buy you about one gallon of gasoline.

That's fairly instructive right there I think.

29 posted on 05/04/2011 8:29:43 AM PDT by Lurker (The avalanche has begun. The pebbles no longer have a vote.)
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To: SC_Pete
If they stop QE, the market collapses. They will not do that with Obama’s re-elction coming up. The Fed’s between a rock and a hard place. They had to support the bond and trash the dollar. No change there. Silver to $60 by June.


You are probably right but don't forget the Fed Reserve is a private bank and its interests are not the same as America's or Obama's. Obama has some leverage over them...such as appointments. The parties the Fed answers to are the big banks AKA banksters. Then smaller banks. Then comes America and Obama

The Fed can easily stop accommodating the re-election of Obama and his Obama-bots if what the banksters want starts diverging from what Obongo wants

30 posted on 05/04/2011 8:34:52 AM PDT by dennisw (NZT - "works better if you're already smart")
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To: Perdogg

Then who’s gonna buy all those treasury notes?


31 posted on 05/04/2011 8:38:56 AM PDT by sarge83
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To: SeekAndFind

If it breaks below $38.80’ish next support is at $36.50’ish


32 posted on 05/04/2011 8:40:18 AM PDT by stockpirate (If they vote for socialism, support socialists, they're socialists duh....Ech bin ein Paliner)
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To: SeekAndFind
I bought at 18 also, and thought the runup a bubble, although even at $50 it is underpriced against gold.

I just sold outright y'dy AM, hoping to take as much profit as possible. Now I'm looking at moving averages and I'm thinking it might drop to thirty.

33 posted on 05/04/2011 8:40:52 AM PDT by Mamzelle
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To: Lurker

That would be true in normal times.
The gas prices today are near $4,
and that silver dime is worth $2.88 today.

Again, it’s a good theory to look at, but gas prices are outside the norm at this point.


34 posted on 05/04/2011 8:41:36 AM PDT by MrB (The difference between a Humanist and a Satanist - the latter knows whom he's working for)
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To: SeekAndFind

Sorry before support t $36.50’ish there is support lite support at $38.00


35 posted on 05/04/2011 8:42:30 AM PDT by stockpirate (If they vote for socialism, support socialists, they're socialists duh....Ech bin ein Paliner)
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To: Perdogg
You can bet that there will be another QE manipulation before the election season starts. Most people are unaware of the real reason QE was started in the first place.

QE’s sole purpose was to lower interest in US Treasury Bonds and increase activity in stocks and also, increase the cost of Treasury bonds to discourage investment in them. Banks and Industry quit “investing” in (Loaning to) the Government, so Burn-yank-me printed 600 Billion new greenbacks and flooded the market with worthless cash created out of thin air and gave it to the banks. That increased Stock Market activity. (Loaned to Large Banks at .025% who loaned to investors in the market) The decreased value of the Dollar also raised stock prices which gave the false impression of a rally.

Uncle Ben did this to keep Interest rates artificially low to keep inflation “low” and prevent a panic. Add to that serious blunder, the National Debt, the interest on that debt and the further decline of the Dollar, Ben boy will have no other choice than to do more of the same. He started this nasty trend and it cannot be reversed without a complete economic collapse.

All he is doing is throwing what ever he can at the wall to see what sticks. He clearly has no clue what the hell he is doing.

36 posted on 05/04/2011 8:42:42 AM PDT by PSYCHO-FREEP (Patriotic by Proxy! (Cause I'm a nutcase and it's someone Else's' fault!....))
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To: MrB
I like when Glenn Beck uses the "good suit" comparison. A good suit costs about what an ounce of gold costs.

Although, good suits are a lot cheaper than they used to be. And the gas prices reflect worse things than inflation.

You know, we should come up with a solid comparison object or commodity. I can't think of one right now. Pound of hamburger? A whole chicken?

A gallon of milk might be good--fuel drives up the price of milk, but in a way that it drives the cost of everything else, so the variable would be flat.

Any other ideas?

37 posted on 05/04/2011 8:51:31 AM PDT by Mamzelle
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To: Mamzelle

I’ve used loaves of bread as the constant. Everybody’s gotta eat.


38 posted on 05/04/2011 9:14:55 AM PDT by MrB (The difference between a Humanist and a Satanist - the latter knows whom he's working for)
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To: SeekAndFind

Next support level is $38.67...........imho


39 posted on 05/04/2011 9:20:11 AM PDT by stockpirate (If they vote for socialism, support socialists, they're socialists duh....Ech bin ein Paliner)
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To: SeekAndFind

I think we will find that today was our bottom. Now look for a breakout to higher levels. I’d say a long tail down which is a blowout bottom. Then moving higher the next 8-10 days.


40 posted on 05/04/2011 10:46:34 AM PDT by stockpirate (If they vote for socialism, support socialists, they're socialists duh....Ich bin ein Paliner)
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