Lousy Larry skews to Obama as excepted.
Indiana and NC aren’t tossups this time. VA either.
New Mexico should probably be tossup not lean rat. WI for sure. Maybe PA and MI too.
Minnesota shouldn’t be likely rat, it’s been trending GOP.
There’s also no way Barry wins Texas which he has as likely Republican. I’d say we’re a 100 times more likely to win MN than Obama is to win “likely Republican” Georgia, Arizona or Texas. He’d need crazy Black turnout in Georgia. Maybe he could get AZ in a landslide scenario.
If Gen. Eric Republican (terrible pun, I know) were on the ballot we’d win I think. Obama’s hope is a bad GOP nominee.
As Phil Collins pointed out the other day the super-incompetant Jimmuh Carter is the only incumbent rat to go down since Grover Cleveland so it’s harder than it looks.
Slimebags Woodrow Wilson and Harry Truman were supposed to be dead in the water and they pulled it off by their eyeteeth.
Using the generic Republican model, this is my "feel" for 2012 (with the RIGHT colors). The EV is 296R-242D. If the unemployment rate continues to stay high, I think WI & MI could tip to us. PA is a problem because of the Philadelphia voter fraud, even though we'll carry most of the counties (I'm thinking PA wouldn't do so bad to give us an assist by awarding EVs via district, for which we'd win a majority).
New Mexico will be won the Republican. In 2010, Republicans gained a seat, in the U.S. House, in NM, and they elected a republican governor. WI & PA will be won by the Republican. In 2010, both of them elected Republicans to the U.S. Senate and governorship. All four of those people replaced Democrats.