2012 electoral map — as it stands

Reuters ^ | April 21, 2011 | by James Pethokoukis

[library user]

~ EXCERPT ~

This is how 2012 looks right now to elections guru Larry Sabato:

Here is how the math works: Include the “Leans” states with the “Likely” and “Safe,” the numbers are as follows: 247 Democratic EVs,  180 Republican EVs, 111 Undecided. Just counting “Likely” and “Safe,” the numbers are as follows: 196 Democratic EVs, 170 Republican EVs, 172 Undecided.

Of the tossup states, I would give the Rs IN (11), FL (29) and certainly at least one of VA, NC or OH. Some Leans D in the Upper Midwest are vulnerable, too.

[Joe 6-pack]

"Is this map considering electoral changes by state based on the last census?"

I can only speak for Louisiana with certainty, but in our case it does.

[pburgh01]

Sababto is an idiot, who bothers listening to him anyway, he's an eggheaded Obama fellating shill anyways. So what he nailed the Senate in 2010, so did most of us. His map is a best case scenario and with 5 bucka gallon gas, a moribund economy and Obama bent on a suicide mission with his 1980’s class warfare style campaign rhetoric it does look more and more like 1980 than 1996 or 2008, no matter who we nominate.

[ScottinVA]

It gets tougher each year for the GOP, as the dems have a guaranteed lock on 220 EVs before returns even come in. The West coast, NY and the New England states are forever lost. In 2012, the Repubs should retake VA, NC, FL and IN. Right now, Gov. Kasich is barely more popular than Satan, so getting OH back is going to be a difficult task. That makes it 248 EVs... gonna have to take a couple away from the enemy. Maybe PA, MI and NH.

[ScottinVA]

Indiana and Ohio are SOLID R’s for 2012

IF Kasich's number improve. They're deep in the crapper now.

[ScottinVA]

I agree, I just can’t see Michigan not going R next time around, unless they REALLY screw something up in Lansing in the next 1.5 yrs.

One hopeful sign for MI is Detroit is emptying fast. But the question is... did the "residents" remain in the state?

[TheOldLady]

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[faucetman]

Sabato is a jerk. He doesn't know anything. He's BORs go to guru, that should tell you something. Whatever Larry says, think the opposite and you will do well.

[No Truce With Kings]

“Why in the world is Texas only a “likely”? Obama wouldn’t beat a ham sandwich in Texas.”

Doncha know? The Won declared the state winnable, so it must be. And not only that they are going to replace Biden with Ricardo Sanchez for Veep, because Sanchez is an e-General, Hispanic, and from Texas.

[kevslisababy]

Don’t know, but we have a pretty strong S.O.S., with lots of support and poll watchers (I’m one of them)

[LS]

WI, PA, and MI are not Republican states. PA especially is always a teaser, like NJ. Do not count on any of those three states.

[LS]

That’s a VERY doable scenario. I’ll be pretty surprised if OH goes Obama again-—but then I was stunned last time.

[Yaelle]

I hate that my state is safe D.

[PSYCHO-FREEP]

Why make the choice so difficult for Obama! No way he could beat out a good Ham Sandwich! Especially with so many going hungry these days.

[kearnyirish2]

NJ will vote Republican in the current environment; Obama’s policies have not accomplished anything here, while we recently elected a well-established fiscal conservative to the governor’s mansion. In fact, I don’t think any “safe Democrat” states even exist; those states are the ones suffering the worst right now, and they’re not going to overlook it out of tradition.

[Jimmah]

Thats so bad it borders on dem propaganda. Does this rediculous report take nationwide pro-republican redistricting into account!

[kearnyirish2]

“Dems up 75 points? Whoever did this is definitely playing fast and lose with the numbers, no way in hell this is remotely accurate.”

I agree; in fact, if Obama is the candidate, there is no “safe Democrat” state. None of them are doing well right now, and they’re past trying to make history by electing our first Mulatto president - been there, hated that.

[Verginius Rufus]

Obama could win in an electoral college landslide, like Wilson in 1912. Sarah Palin wins the Republican nomination and Trump runs as an independent. Popular vote breakdown: Obama 40%, Palin 30%, Trump 30%.

[kearnyirish2]

Here are some more things in our favor:
1. Expensive gas
2. Expiration of “Making Work Pay” tax credit
3. Nearly 20% unemployment
4. Obama is no longer “post-racial”; he’s very “racial”
5. Obama’s “youth vote” is still looking for that first job
6. NJ elected Governor Christie, the epitome of a “Taxed Enough Already” candidate if there ever was one.
7. The number of “solid Dem” voters out of work is climbing (public sector union members)
8. Obama still stages public appearances as though we’re in the “Roaring 20s” - the disconnect is apparent to all.

[kearnyirish2]

“I’ll be pretty surprised if OH goes Obama again-—but then I was stunned last time.”

Nothing has happened since then to indicate to Obama that it can ever happen again; even before the 2010 mid-terms, he was slapped down in MA and NJ, which he had won handily. The scales had ALREADY fallen from the voters’ eyes - IN MA & NJ!

[Grams A]

There are now more registered Democrats in Texas than registered Republicans. If a significant portion of them vote in state wide elections, they can run the table. Fortunately for Perry, most of them, particularly in Harris County, chose to stay home.