Posted on 04/20/2011 7:39:55 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.) has gained considerable momentum over the past few weeks.
She raised more money than any of her presidential rivals in 2011’s first quarter, her presence at political events regularly swells crowds, and she’s running surprisingly strongly in early 2012 polling, despite relatively low name recognition.
Yet, for all that, leading pundits still dismiss her chances to become the eventual nominee. Their argument is that her appeal is restricted to a limited constituency — the Tea Party faithful and social conservatives — and that while those groups might boost her to a strong showing in Iowa and South Carolina, they’re too limited to carry her to a national nomination.
While that might be true, let’s play a game of What If, since that’s the game Bachmann and her strategists are likely playing during all those visits to early primary states.
What if Bachmann were to develop a message to which mainstream and establishment Republicans responded? Is that possible? Would it make a presidential nomination possible, too?
It depends on whom you ask.
GOP consultant Mike Murphy, who worked for Sen. John McCain’s (R-Ariz.) 2000 campaign, says it’s a moot point and that Bachmann is unable to transition from a Tea Party persona to a more inclusive political mindset.
“Much like Ringo giving up the drums for the concert piano, it would not work. She is what she is, politically. One audience. One appeal.”
Larry Sabato, director for the University of Virginia Center for Politics, takes a similar point of view, suggesting it’s a zero-sum game.
“If you’re going to fire up the Tea Partiers, then almost certainly you are going to alienate the part of the party base that prefers more genteel candidates who can actually win in November.”
That line of thinking suggests that even if Bachmann were to try to branch out, she’d be unsuccessful, because it would render her inauthentic and diminish her appeal with every camp.
Tom Jensen of the Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling agrees, though he lays blame not at Bachmann’s feet but at the doorstep of the Tea Party movement that he claims is unable to integrate disparate points of view.
“If she made any sort of overtures toward the center, she would probably lose that niche, and it would scuttle her chances,” he said.
But is Bachmann’s “niche” strong enough to carry her to a win?
Based on his polling, in a best-case scenario Jensen thinks unified Tea Party support for Bachmann could yield her 20-25 percent of the vote in an individual primary. But only a large, fragmented field could turn that 20-25 percent into a winning number.
In that sort of fragmentation, she has a legitimate shot, Sabato concurs, claiming Bachmann could “overwhelm the mainstream candidates.”
And there’s reason to believe those sorts of stars could align for her.
The conventional wisdom is that the GOP establishment will quickly settle on former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman or former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty.
But this cycle’s establishment seems neither unified behind one candidate nor particularly excited about one. Big-name donors who gravitate toward establishment candidates have been wary about choosing a winner, because no one’s easily identified as one.
So imagine, for a second, a scenario where mainstream Republicans are squabbling over their standard-bearer as Tea Party and grassroots conservatives coalesce around their favorite.
In a contest where the Tea Party unites behind a candidate amid mainstream Republican rankling, it’s quite possible that the 20-25 percent Bachmann could score in a primary might be enough to win and send shock waves through the party.
Former George W. Bush strategist and No Labels co-founder Mark McKinnon has confessed to his disagreements with Bachmann before, but says she’s not to be underestimated.
“I think she has huge potential in Iowa and South Carolina. And if you win those two states in the Republican primaries, you are off to the races.”
Further, once she starts winning, McKinnon claims, she can “refine her message to make it more appealing to a wider community.”
“The establishment may scoff now,” he said, “but if Bachmann starts winning, they will crawl over broken glass to kiss her ring.”
That would bring us full circle: Bachmann might not win by bringing the establishment on board, but the establishment could be brought on board very quickly if she starts winning.
-- Heinze, the founder of GOP12.com, is a member of staff at The Hill. Find his column, GOP Presidential Primary, on thehill.com
She’s got my vote.
House members don’t win Presidential nominations these days.
It all blew up in her face with the Stephanopolus interview.
She has no awareness of the fact that the media is composed of treasonous liars. Hence, she is dead meat in their hands.
I actually had hoped that she might run as Sarah’s VP before this blunder.
I didn’t see the interview, but even so.... the fact is that 95% of the public doesn’t know who Michele Bachmann is (more’s the pity).
She should stay (for now) where she can do the most good.
Most of this article is the usual cr@p. The tea party message of fiscal responsibility IS main stream. It wasn’t until the last line that I agreed with anything.
I like her but I don't think she could win and she wouldn't win the general election.
Talking points. “Do you believe that Barack Obama is a U.S. citizen?” Two answers.
What he is has nothing to do with who I am.
That was your job to question him in ‘08, not me in ‘11/12.
While she must be a really smart woman to have achieved what she has...she comes off as a ditz bordering on plain 'ol dumb.
Yeah, she's right on most of the issues...but she DOES waver and is not as fearless as some would like to say she is.
nah...she blew it with the george steph interview...
Actually that’s a good answer.
I would also add that “The people have a right to have their questions answered satisfactorily and from the looks of most of your ratings, you aren’t doing a stellar job”.
I actually had hoped that she might run as Sarah’s VP before this blunder.
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It really is interesting the lengths that many on this forum will go in excusing the past indiscretions of “The Donald” (e.g. giving generous donations to hard core leftists like Reid, Schumer, Weiner, and Emanuel), but after one comment in an interview, Michelle Bachmann is thrown under the Bus.
Bachmann has battle scars from her non-stop, relentless fight for the conservative cause, and she’s as good as dead to many in this forum. But the Donald, who’s actively supported hard core leftists whose goal it is to destroy the country, is supported without question, with all past indiscretions forgiven. In fact, many on this forum will not tolerate any criticism of the Donald!
This makes me want to puke!
If she runs, I bet she only campaigns in 50 states, not 57. Ease up.
She’s still too much of a LIGHTWEIGHT.
I can't see how continued discussion of this matter could possibly hurt anyone but Obama and the dims and the press.
All a candidate has to say is: "Yeah, I believe the President was born here, but so many good people still have questions. I believe the President should put this issue behind him, and the country, and show his long-form BC."
Don't be surprised if one of the Dim Senate Candidates for 2012 from a very red states is the first to bring it up.
Of course, the House Judiciary Committee could subpoena it from the State of Hawaii anytime they choose.
If that's still a question during the elections the republican controlled Congress deserves to lose power. IMO
“House members don’t win Presidential nominations these days.”
***
And for 48 years we didn’t have a senator winning the presidency, then in 2008 we got two of them as nominees.
One of them is a Kenyan. Well scratch that even, there is no proof.
You aren’t going to get enough candidates to answer the question the way you want so I think we can consider losing a foregone conclusion.
I think the conventional wisdom is in a state of collapse. Most house members aren’t as well known as Michelle Bachman. He wasn’t my choice but Ron Paul did exceptionally well considering the fact that he was wrong on many of the issues.
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