Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

To: Uncle Miltie

You can perform a ineternet search on “Shadow Stats”+”Hedonic” and get some get hits.

What Williams presents on his website and what he espouses in the media are not the same, he ALWAYS advocates his political ideology in the media.

One of the first truly comprehensive critiques of Williams CPI method is here:
http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2008/09/shadowstats_deb.html
September 04, 2008
Shadowstats debunked

Williams presented his repsonse to his critics (and specifically the econobrowser critique) a week later in regards to the topic of your post here:
http://www.shadowstats.com/article/special-comment
Response to BLS Article on CPI Misconceptions
JOHN WILLIAMS’ SHADOW GOVERNMENT STATISTICS
SPECIAL COMMENT
September 10, 2008
ShadowStats.com Response to BLS Article on CPI Misconceptions


As per my opinion, WIlliams is an interesting character, would be great to sit down and have a few drinks with him and let him really rip into the BLS, Fed, Treasury, Census Bureau, etc.
Personally, looking through his arguments on hedonics, I believe he does indeed overstate CPI. I’m not really qualified to make an arugment on it.

Reading about the Boskin Commission can make your brain fry and kill your soul, so be warned.

Here is one link regarding the little talked about CPI-RS, one of the effects of the Boskin Commission that turns Williams face red when asked about it:
http://share-ws2-md.aarp.org/research/ppi/econ-sec/Other/articles/aresearch-import-326-DD51.html

Men on the Boskin Commission had some doubts about the CPI a decade after the Commission’s final report and implementation,
former member Robert Gordon of Northwestern
The Boskin Commission Report:
A Retrospective One Decade Later*
Robert J. Gordon
http://faculty-web.at.northwestern.edu/economics/gordon/P376_IPM_Final_060313.pdf


Trying to track US CPI brings insight for archaelogists trying to understand why Mesopotamians abandoned Cuneiform A record keeping.


12 posted on 04/15/2011 9:48:49 AM PDT by JerseyHighlander
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies ]


To: JerseyHighlander

Bringing Professor Gordon’s synopsis to the fore:

The Boskin Commission Report: A Retrospective One Decade Later*

Abstract
This paper provides a retrospective on the 1996 Boskin Commission Report, Toward a More Accurate Measure of the Cost of Living, and its famous estimate that the CPI in 1995-96 was upward biased by 1.1 percent per year. The paper summarizes the report’s methods, findings,and recommendations, and then reviews the comments and criticisms that appeared soon after the Report was issued. Changes in the CPI are summarized and assessed, as is recent research on related issues. The paper sharply distinguishes two questions. First, with what we know
now, what should the Commission have concluded about CPI bias in 1995-96?

Second, what is the bias now after the many improvements introduced into the CPI since the Commission’s Report?

About the first question, my own recent research on apparel and rental housing indicates a substantial downward bias in the CPI over much of the twentieth century,diminishing in size after 1985. Incorporating these findings into the Boskin matrix would reduce its 0.6 percent annual upward bias due to quality change and new products to a smaller
0.4 percent bias. However, this is more than offset by the stunning discrepancy over 2000-06 in the chain-weighted C-CPI-U compared to the traditional CPI-U, indicating that the Commission greatly understated the magnitude of upper-level substitution bias. This retrospective evaluation suggests that the Boskin bias estimate for 1995-96 should have been 1.2 to 1.3 percent, not 1.1 percent.

Current upward bias in the CPI is estimated to have declined from the revised 1.2-1.3 percent in the Boskin era to about 0.8 percent today. Yet the Boskin report, like most
contemporary studies of quality change, failed to place sufficient value on the value of new products and on increased longevity. Allowing for these, today’s bias is at least 1.0 percent per year or perhaps even higher.

Keywords: inflation, price measurement, substitution bias, quality change, new products, medical care
JEL Codes: I1, I11

Robert J. Gordon
Department of Economics, Northwestern University
Evanston IL 60208-2600
(847)491-3616
rjg@northwestern.edu
http://faculty-web.at.northwestern.edu/economics/gordon


24 posted on 04/15/2011 10:57:48 AM PDT by Uncle Miltie (0bamanomics: Trickle Up Poverty.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 12 | View Replies ]

To: JerseyHighlander
...Reading about the Boskin Commission can make your brain fry and kill your soul, so be warned...

Trying to track US CPI brings insight for archaelogists trying to understand why Mesopotamians abandoned Cuneiform A record keeping.


Two great comments.
30 posted on 04/16/2011 11:57:14 AM PDT by algernonpj (He who pays the piper . . .)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 12 | View Replies ]

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article


FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson