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To: ransomnote; aquila48
From the NEA.org website report on Chernobyl:

“For the eight years prior to 1986, only five cases of childhood (less than 15 years old on the day of accident) thyroid cancer were seen in Minsk, which is the main Belarussian centre for thyroid cancer diagnosis and treatment for children (De94). From 1986 to 1989, 3 to 6 cases of thyroid cancer in children were seen annually in Belarus. In 1990, the number jumped to 31, to 62 in 1991, then to 87 in 1993. By the end of 1998 the total had reached over 600 in Belarus. Nearly 50% of the early (1992) thyroid cancers appeared in children who were aged between one and four years at the time of the accident. At the same time 382 were diagnosed in the Ukraine.


At the same time, though, the incidence of these cancers over the decades since has dropped in a linear fashion with increasing proximity to Chernobyl. So if anything the dose/response is the reverse of what you claim. Also, "The projections of thousands of late cancer deaths based on LNT, are in conflict with observations that in comparison with general population of Russia, a 15% to 30% deficit of solid cancer mortality was found among the Russian emergency workers, and a 5% deficit solid cancer incidence among the population of most contaminated areas."

With respect to pediatric thyroid cancer in the region, the incidence was very low compared to the typical incidence in many other regions of the world as was the exposure to radiation (about 1mSv/year compared to the average of 2.4 mSv/year). Why the increase? You find what you're looking for. It's call the screening effect.
The number of 4000 new thyroid cancers registered among the children from Belarus, Russia and the Ukraine should be viewed with respect to the extremely high occurrence of these dormant subclinical malignant tumors that contain transformed tumor cells and are quite common in the population (Akslen and Naumov 2008; Weinberg 2008). This is exemplified by occult thyroid cancers, the incidence of which varies from 5.6% in Colombia, 9.0% in Poland, 9.3% in Minsk, Belarus, 13% in the United States, 28% in Japan, to 35.6% in Finland (Harach et al 1985; Moosa and Mazzaferri 1997). In Finland occult thyroid cancers are observed in 2.4% of children (Harach et al 1985), i.e., some 90 times more than the maximum observed in the Bryansk region. In Minsk, Belarus the normal incidence of occult thyroid cancers is 9.3% (Furmanchuk et al 1993). The “Chernobyl” thyroid cancers are of the same histological type and are similar in invasiveness to the “occult cancers” (Moosa and Mazzaferri 1997; Tan and Gharib 1997). Since 1995 the number of registered cancers has tended to decline. This is not in agreement with what we know about radiation induced thyroid cancers whose latency period is about 5 – 10 years after irradiation exposure (Inskip 2001) and whose risk increases until 15 – 29 years after exposure (UNSCEAR 2000a). In the United States the incidence rate of thyroid tumors detected between 1974 and 1979 during a screening program was 21 times higher than before the screening (Ron et al 1992), an increase similar to that observed in three former Soviet countries. It appears that the increased registration of thyroid cancers in contaminated parts of these countries is a classical screening effect.

40 posted on 04/05/2011 12:32:33 AM PDT by aruanan
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To: aruanan

Hilarious! Dispute the accounts of people who were there (The Battle For Chernobyl) who tell us 600 pilots died, 2500 miners died etc. (and listen to the body count go up throughout the film) with the conjecture that it was the screening effect! So consuming radioactive material, receiving huge doses while standing in the fallout for a MayDay celebration have no ill effects??? IT’s sad but many people live their entire lives in radioactive contaminated areas in Russia - the heartbreaking documentaries on birth defects and illness are there and no- sadly they are not the result of the screening effect. Oh I could post again the information I have posted elsewhere but those who support radiation as vigorously as you are just not going to accept that. It has to have an amazingly PERFECT history of PERFECT management and PERFECT transparency. Our plans for new plant designs will likewise be perfect, our testing and responses during a crisis will be perfect etc. Even when you are watching Japan’s workers make human errors - we’ll be the perfect ones!
I have been back and forth on the nuclear issue because my background is in science. But reading up on the Chernobyl disaster and Russia’s horrific history of radioactive pollution and watching the Japanese contend with TEPCO’s silence and denial for which they have since apologized has directed my attention to the actual problem of nuclear energy - the people. People who need to deny the actual damage that has occurred and people who deny that humans are imperfect and manage radiation imperfectly. In the eyes of the vigorous supporter - those of us who count actual costs are just looking at the wrong set of numbers or are too backward. Those of us who say humans are flawed and hence their management of that kind of power are likewise flawed are just ‘scared and ignorant’. I cringe to think of how those people whose lives have been destroyed by Russia’s management of nuclear power would react to hear that the way their people and their countries sufferings are really just a screening effect.


42 posted on 04/05/2011 1:28:19 AM PDT by ransomnote
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To: aruanan

Hilarious! Dispute the accounts of people who were there (The Battle For Chernobyl) who tell us 600 pilots died, 2500 miners died etc. (and listen to the body count go up throughout the film) with the conjecture that it was the screening effect! So consuming radioactive material, receiving huge doses while standing in the fallout for a MayDay celebration have no ill effects??? IT’s sad but many people live their entire lives in radioactive contaminated areas in Russia - the heartbreaking documentaries on birth defects and illness are there and no- sadly they are not the result of the screening effect. Oh I could post again the information I have posted elsewhere but those who support radiation as vigorously as you are just not going to accept that. It has to have an amazingly PERFECT history of PERFECT management and PERFECT transparency. Our plans for new plant designs will likewise be perfect, our testing and responses during a crisis will be perfect etc. Even when you are watching Japan’s workers make human errors - we’ll be the perfect ones!
I have been back and forth on the nuclear issue because my background is in science. But reading up on the Chernobyl disaster and Russia’s horrific history of radioactive pollution and watching the Japanese contend with TEPCO’s silence and denial for which they have since apologized has directed my attention to the actual problem of nuclear energy - the people. People who need to deny the actual damage that has occurred and people who deny that humans are imperfect and manage radiation imperfectly. In the eyes of the vigorous supporter - those of us who count actual costs are just looking at the wrong set of numbers or are too backward. Those of us who say humans are flawed and hence their management of that kind of power are likewise flawed are just ‘scared and ignorant’. I cringe to think of how those people whose lives have been destroyed by Russia’s management of nuclear power would react to hear that the way their people and their countries sufferings are really just a screening effect.


43 posted on 04/05/2011 1:28:31 AM PDT by ransomnote
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