[fhayek]

There were 1,553,000 first time jobless claims in March. 216,000 new jobs were added. Okay, I am sure this has been explained before, but could somebody go through it again for me. How can the unemployment rate fall given these facts?

[ClearCase_guy]

Somewhat similarly, I believe the replacement rate due to population growth, etc. is 300,000 a month. Meaning, we need to create 300,000 jobs a month just to keep even. Well, we created 216,000 jobs in March, which caused unemployment to drop. Huh?

None of these numbers make sense to me. I think there is pretzel logic that allows people to come to happy conclusions, but to me all of this looks like BS.

[NOVACPA]

The headline unemployment rate has nothing really to do with actual job creation.

U3 as it’s known, is largely a modeled, surveyed and derived number and has been highly manipulated for several Presidencies now.

Use U6, it’s a better, truer indicator.

[amishman]

I’m sure all of those jobs were full time, high paying, benefit provided jobs. I’d sure like to find one of those.

OK, back to my part time, low paying, no benefits, just barely able to pay for my gas and taxes job.

[voicereason]

It will be interesting to see what numbers are reported when the next wave of college grads hits the workforce. Real problem is that many of them are practically illiterate.

[pinqy]

Ok, it’s three different sets of data.
UI claims are initial claims for each week. It’s a gross figure and the individuals could have lost their jobs weeks before filing.

New jobs is survey of non-farm establishments that contribute to Unemployment survey. 216,000 is the NET change (Hires - Fires - Quits - retirements - deaths)

The Unemployment rate is a household survey and includes everyone 16 and older not in prison, the military, or mental institute. The rate is Unemployed divided by Unemployed + Employed. Employment from the Household survey went up 291,000 (includes self-employed, family businesses, farms, domestic workers) and Unemployment went down 131,000 (net change as opposed to gross UI numbers).

And the time frame is different too...UI initial claims are every week, non-farm payroll is from the pay period that includes the 12th, and the household survey is from the week that contains the 12th.

[ridesthemiles]

There were 1,553,000 first time jobless claims in March. 216,000 new jobs were added. Okay, I am sure this has been explained before, but could somebody go through it again for me. How can the unemployment rate fall given these facts?”

Real math was replaced by “New Math”.

Now, New Math has been replaced by NObama Math.

You are correct-—these figures are bogus.

[Calif Conservative]

It has been explained before numerous times.

The jobless claims are a component of the jobless rate

The payroll number is derived from a survey of payrolls reported by non-agri employers

[Bubba Ho-Tep]

There's always a certain amount of churn, even in times of high employment. Looking at numbers from 2004, with 5.6% unemployment, the monthly numbers on initial jobless claims are about the same (340K per week X four weeks)