Posted on 03/28/2011 1:11:16 AM PDT by Tolerance Sucks Rocks
It seems not a day goes by without Florida Senator Marco Rubio being mentioned as the favorite choice for vice president among Republicans in Washington. Even talk radio’s Rush Limbaugh weighed in when he said Senator Rubio should run for president in 2012.
It is true that Senator Rubio has certain political assets, including his ability to “attract” Latino voters due to his Cuban heritage. He also is conservative, smart, and a good speaker. And he hails from a state that is considered the mother of all battleground states for 2012. What’s not to like if you are a Republican looking toward the future?
Nothing — except for the fact that the 39-year-old Rubio was just sworn into the United States Senate on January 3, 2011.
Is the Republican Party so devoid of leadership that a newbie senator with no previous national or gubernatorial experience would even be considered presidential or VP material after only four months in Washington?
Unfortunately, the answer is yes. Worse, Rubio is about to be entangled in a political phenomenon I call GEAR, which stands for Gender-Ethnicity-Age-Race.
The GEAR phenomenon is when a candidate is chosen to be on a presidential ticket because he or she possesses one or more of the Gender-Ethnicity-Age-Race factors that are considered politically advantageous at the time of selection.
Let’s examine the history of GEAR on recent presidential tickets and see if there are any “teachable moments” for Senator Rubio in 2012.
The GEAR factor of “G” for gender first appeared on the 1984 presidential ticket with the selection of New York Congresswoman Geraldine Ferraro as the first female vice-presidential candidate. (Ferraro passed away on Saturday at 75.) She was chosen by the Democrat presidential nominee, Walter Mondale, to spruce up the ticket, make history, and attract women voters. Granted, she did make history, but not with women voters, who in 1984 went for Reagan by 59% vs. 42% for Mondale.
One could say riding the big “G” in GEAR turned into a big flop for Ferraro.
She was unknown nationally, never caught fire on the ticket and, after giving up her congressional seat to run for VP, never held elective office again. (Although she tried in 1992 and 1998 for a New York Senate seat, she lost both races at the primary level.)
Four years later, in 1988, the GEAR factor of “A” for age surfaced when the Republican presidential nominee, Vice President George H.W. Bush, selected Indiana Senator Dan Quayle as his running mate.
Vice President Bush thought his ticket needed a little less gray hair so he plucked a handsome, unknown 41 year old out of the Senate and basically ruined Quayle’s career. Quayle’s candidacy provided a great addition to the political lexicon through that famous line from Senator Lloyd Bentsen in the 1988 VP debate — “Senator, you’re no Jack Kennedy” — after Quayle compared his Washington experience to Senator Kennedy’s in 1960.
Nevertheless, Bush/Quayle won the White House in 1988 and Quayle served as VP. But he soon became the butt of national jokes — many self-inflicted.
Since everyone knew the GEAR factor of age was the key reason for Quayle’s selection as VP in 1988 and because Quayle was generally seen as a poor choice, President Bush was urged to drop Quayle from the 1992 ticket.
However, Bush refused, Bush/Quayle was defeated by Clinton/Gore, and Dan Quayle was practically never heard from again. (Although his son Ben was elected to Congress in 2010 and is trying to “restore” the family name.)
After the Dan Quayle fiasco, it took 20 years, from 1988 to 2008, for the GEAR phenomenon to surface again and surface it did on both national tickets.
On the Democrat side in the 2008 presidential election, the “R” factor of race was front and center after Barack Obama, who was sworn in as a United States senator on January 4, 2005, declared on February 10, 2007, that he was running for president of the United States.
Obama definitely wins the GEAR factor gold medal.
For if Obama’s father had been Caucasian instead of African, it would have been nearly impossible for a sophomore senator from Illinois to have wrestled the democratic nomination away from iconic front-runner Hillary Clinton, and then go on to win the presidency.
(Note that Hillary Clinton also had a “G” for gender factor but was not considered a GEAR candidate due to her years of political experience.)
But Obama, as a GEAR candidate with the historic “R” factor combined with the “A” for age factor, was compelling enough for the media to act as his biggest cheerleader, thus propelling him to victory in 2008.
Only time will tell if his presidency will be a success or a failure. Certainly at this juncture Republicans think it has been a disaster, with Obama’s lack of executive and foreign policy experience being key reasons. The question remains if the GEAR factor of “R” will loom as large and generate similar favorable media coverage for Obama’s 2012 re-election bid.
For the Republicans in 2008, Senator McCain wanted a game-changing VP pick (“high-risk, high-reward”) so he selected unknown (at the time) Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, who had been in office less than two years. Palin brought the “G” for gender factor and the “A” for age factor (she was 44) and along with her conservative credentials helped energize the conservative base for the fall election.
Unfortunately, like Mondale’s false thinking that Ferraro would bring him women voters in 1984, McCain had the same illusions with Palin and the ticket went on to lose the women’s vote to Obama by a whopping 57% to 43%.
GEAR factors may have played a huge role in Palin’s selection as VP, but she later propelled herself into national prominence. As of this writing, Palin’s future in elective office is unknown but her bank account is definitely a winner.
Now with the GEAR phenomenon in historical context, let’s swing back to Senator Marco Rubio’s prospects for 2012.
The newly minted Florida senator of Cuban descent brings the GEAR factor of “E” for ethnicity to a party that is desperately trying to win Latino and Hispanic voters.
Also, in 2012 Rubio will be 41 years old, thus helping bring the “A” for age factor to a party that lost the under 30 vote to Obama in 2008 by 61% to 39% and the 30-49 year old vote by 53% to 47%.
Certainly, there is no disputing that Senator Rubio is an attractive conservative candidate with a very bright future. That is why Washington collective wisdom thinks Rubio will be offered the VP slot no matter who tops the ticket.
But the question is: should Rubio accept a VP slot in 2012 as a GEAR candidate with its high-risk, high-reward, and sometimes unhappy career-ending scenarios?
By August of 2012 he will have served in the U.S. Senate less than two years. Obama ran for president after serving just two years, so using the Obama Senate time table Senator Rubio is just about ripe for the VP ticket.
You can almost hear the arguments that will be waged on cable and talk radio.
Rubio’s decision will be made even more difficult and tempting by the Republican National Convention being hosted in his home state of Florida, in the city of Tampa.
So will Rubio be able to resist the gravitational power pull, wait until he has completed at least one full term in the Senate, and become better known nationally?
Some Republican strategists believe Rubio should wait until he has more seasoning and is in a position to win the top spot on a future presidential ticket.
Since Rubio has all the makings of a terrific non-GEAR candidate and time is on his side, I hope he refuses that siren call from the top of the Republican ticket in 2012.
For becoming a GEAR candidate can be risky and unforgiving whether you win or lose.
Were his parents American citizens when he was born?
Not sure about that but they were here legally and under the protection of the US as political refugees. Currently legal residents wait 6 yrs for full citizenship.
A total non issue in any case.
No, that makes them citizens by act, not natural born. And the constitution either means something are it don’t.
Quayle should have been the Presidential nominee instead of Veep.
He’s too young, without sufficient executive experience.
I said it for Obama, and I’ll say it for Rubio too.
Simply having better principles doesn’t mean you are up to leader of the free world. He’s only 39. I can’t see it.
Let us assume “natural-born” means born of citizen parents.
Even this definition does not require the parents be natural-born. Nor should it.
Yes, and it seemed to work out for them.
Florida Senator Marco Rubio and our peregrine Obama have something in common..they are not natural born Citizens.
He's only just gotten to the Senate and should stay there awhile doing the job Floridians hired him to do.
Born in Miami, he meets jus soli criteria.
The vast majority of the world, about 80%, adheres to jus sanguinis citizenship yet the strictest of birthers are mocked for wanting to apply it to the "natural born citizen" clause.
Quayle should have been the Presidential nominee instead of Veep.
Either way he would have lost so really it doesn’t matter. People had their fill of Republicans at that point and they could have put up Hitler and he would have won. 12 years is a long time for one party especially President.
Even this definition does not require the parents be natural-born. Nor should it.I've read some posts that make it seem like the writer believes that to be eligible to be president all your ancestors must be natural born citizens.
Ok, I exaggerate. :)
But I do see some people taking it too far. And I say that as a birther.
I AM a birther.
At present, Rubio lacks experience but has tons of potential beyond 2012.
Ok, this is ridiculous. American history is replete with examples of Presidents and Vice-Presidents born to naturalized parents including Johnson, Buchanan, Wilson, Hoover, Agnew, Dallas and Humphrey. Jefferson and Jackson were grandfathered in under a different standard.
The one with questions hanging over him is Chester Arthur because it's known he lied about his parents history, destroyed his papers and his father's naturalization documents have not surfaced. The time line works such that his father might've been naturalized before Chester's birth but it's not a settled thing.
From a strategic viewpoint..he's doing the smartest thing possible..lie low...until he issues a Shermanesque statement, he's "running" for something in some fashion.
Hoover? Hoover’s mother was Canadian, his father was a US citizen from Ohio. His mother gained US citizenship when she married his father according to a congressional Act of February 1855, derivative citizenship. Thus Hoover was born in Iowa to citizen parents thus Hoover was a natural born citizen.
Buchanan? His mother was born in PA, his father emigrated from Ireland in 1783. The Buchanans were citizens of PA (Treaty of 1783) when the constitution was ratified, 1788, becoming citizens of the U.S. Buchanan was born in PA to citizen parents thus Buchana was a natural born citizen.
Agnew? His Greek father's WWI registration card, Sept 12, 1918, shows him to be a naturalized citizen. His mother from VA, Spiro was born in Nov 1918 to citizen parents in MD. Agnew was a natural born citizen.
Dallas? George Dallas' mother, Ben Franklin's daughter, was from PA. His father was born in Jamaica to English parents. He naturalized in 1783. George was born in 1792 in PA. Dallas was a natural born citizen.
Humphrey? His Norwegian mother gained US citizenship when she married his father. Humphrey was born in South Dakota to citizen parents. Humphrey was a natural born citizen.
I know the moonbats like to mock but if you look through the history you find a consistent message: Presidents and Vice-Presidents subject to the "natural born citizen" requirement, appear to have met even the strictest birther "natural born citizen" standard of both jus sanguinis and jus soli.
I'm not saying that would be the adjudicated standard, just that it's remarkably consistent despite the Left's claims otherwise.
It's obvious some of these were just gimmicks, "hail mary" nominations, done just to check a "historical" box for legacy purposes. Mondale had no shot, Gore knew he was in deep trouble. McCain had to know the same.
Yes they are.. Rubio was born in America.. His parents became Defacto citizens when they left Cuba and became citizens automatically.. As for Obama, he is citizen by birth since his commie whore mother was an American Citizen..
He will be the VP candidate no matter who the Presidential candidate is, IMO. Thats seems like a lock. You can’t ignore the fact that there are 50 million Hispanics living here.
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