Posted on 03/02/2011 12:07:32 AM PST by Uncle Miltie
Unprecedented convulsions across the Middle East, from Morocco to Iran, prompt three reflections:
First, these rebellions fit into the context of a regional chessboard, what I call the Middle East cold war. On one side stands the resistance bloc led by Iran and including Turkey, Syria, Lebanon, Gaza, and Qatar; it seeks to shake up the existing order with a new one, more piously Islamic and hostile to the West. On the other side stands the status quo bloc led by Saudi Arabia and including most of the rest of the region (implicitly including Israel); it prefers things to stay more or less the way they are.
The former (but not Syria) have an agenda, the latter (except Israel) want primarily to enjoy the fruits of power. (Caged tigers, anyone? Or a private concert by Mariah Carey?) The former enjoy offering a vision, the latter can deploy guns, lots of them.
Second, while developments in Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Yemen, and Bahrain have great significance, there are only two regional geo-strategic giants Iran and Saudi Arabia and both are potentially vulnerable. Discontent with the Islamic Republic of Iran became manifest in June 2009, when a rigged election brought massive crowds onto the streets. Although the authorities managed to suppress the Green Movement, they could not stifle it and it remains underground. Despite Tehrans strenuous efforts to lay claim to the revolts across the region, portraying them as inspired by the Iranian revolution of 197879 and its own brand of Islamism, these revolts more likely will inspire Iranians to renew their assault on the Khomeinist order.
Were such a counter-revolution to succeed, the implications would go far beyond Iran, affecting the Non-Proliferation Treaty regime, Israeli security, Iraqs future, the global energy market, and perhaps most critical of all the Islamist movement. Bereft of the most important resistance government, the Islamist movement worldwide would likely begin to decline.
The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is no ordinary state. Its power lies in a unique combination of Wahhabi doctrine, control over Mecca and Medina, and oil and gas reserves. In addition, its leaders boast an exceptional record of outside-the-box policies. Still, geographical, ideological, and personnel differences among Saudis could cause its fall. The key question would then be: Fall to whom? Shiites who resent their second-class status and would presumably move the country towards Iran? Purist Wahhabis, who scorn the monarchical adaptations to modernity and would replicate the Taliban order in Afghanistan? Or both in the case of a split? Or perhaps liberals, hitherto a negligible force, who find their voice and lead an overthrow of the antiquated, corrupt, extremist Saudi order?
This latter thought leads to my third and most unexpected observation: The revolts over the past two months have been largely constructive, patriotic, and open in spirit. Political extremism of any sort, leftist or Islamist, has been largely absent from the streets. Conspiracy theories have been the refuge of decayed rulers, not exuberant crowds. The United States, Great Britain, and Israel have been conspicuously absent from the sloganeering. (Libyan strongman Muammar Qaddafi blamed unrest in his country on al-Qaeda spreading hallucinogenic drugs.)
One has the sense that the past centurys extremism tied to such figures as Amin al-Husseini, Gamal Abdel Nasser, Ruhollah Khomeini, Yasser Arafat, and Saddam Hussein has run its course, that populations seek something more mundane and consumable than rhetoric, rejectionism, and backwardness.
Pessimism serves as a career enhancer in Middle East studies and I am known for doom-and-gloom. But, with due hesitation, I see changes that could augur a new era, one in which infantilized Arabic speakers mature into adults. One rubs ones eyes at this transformation, awaiting its reversal. So far, however, it has held.
Perhaps the most genial symbol of this maturation is the pattern of street demonstrators cleaning up after themselves. No longer are they wards of the state dependent on it for services; of a sudden, they are citizens with a sense of civic responsibility.
While I caution against premising foreign policies on this abrupt improvement, it would also be a mistake to discount it. The rebel movements need an opportunity to find themselves and to act as adults. Time has come to discard the soft bigotry of low expectations; speaking Arabic or Persian does not make one incapable of building democratic means to attain free ends.
Daniel Pipes (www.DanielPipes.org) is director of the Middle East Forum and Taube distinguished visiting fellow at the Hoover Institution of Stanford University.
Daniel:
you need to read this:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2682253/posts
When you are finished tell me again why want to call it down the middle so you can set up your next article.
Uh huh.
>Were such a counter-revolution to succeed, the implications would go far beyond Iran,
Were any of this to be actually TRUE, rather than a pleasant fantasy I would be looking for winged pigs outside my window
As much as I respect Mr. Daniel Pipe's opinions, he must’ve smoked wacky weed this time. Sorry Daniel, your hopes fly contrary to logic.
“The problem with popular revolutions is they always get co-opted by despots that are often worse than the one deposed. Be careful what you wish for lest that wish be granted, people.”
Amen!
That’s what I’m afraid is happening.
“As much as I respect Mr. Daniel Pipe’s opinions, he mustve smoked wacky weed this time. Sorry Daniel, your hopes fly contrary to logic.”
I like him, too...but he has put himself out there for public ridicule.
I think I’ll mock him, now. ;o)
I received the Daniel Pipe's newsletter and read his rosy optimism with a sour expression.We look at a mapthe North of Africa is ablazeis this not the work of Iran?
Oh but shi'ite and sunni never mixor so we are continually told.
Transcending the merely sectarian is overarching human dynamic of power.
Those with power are being undercut and overthrown; their realms will go under new management.
Hussein the 44th czar of the former republic of America is clumsy in adapting to these events, but consistent patterns surface predictably.
He supports the rioters in Egypt, Libya, Tunisia, Yemenbut not in Iran.
He deplores the murder of the demonstrators in Tripoli and Cairo but not Tehran and Tiananmen--
As Donald Trump pointed out, Hussein gave China a five-star dinnerand I would add, after he bowed to the leaders of China and Saudi--
The Saudi prince paid for Hussein's Harvard; and Hillary (SecState) has a body person who is her Saudi agent of influence.
The current prairie fire on the Mediterranean rim is not benign, does not bode well for America and her ally Israel.
While Pipes' hopes may be buoyed by the lack of overt appearance of Islamist force at this time, the history of all revolution as well as all Islamic governance, suggests fascist sharia to follow.
We need Sarah Palin and John Bolton and David Petraeus, not a taqiya-talking KGB Active Measures bionic imam.
read later
Democracy, Middle East-style: Two hyenas and a lamb deciding what is for dinner. The next day its two hyenas fighting over which one is meaner. The third day? No more democracy.
And we all know how ‘true’ Pipes’ predictions and ‘insights’ turned out to be.
Between Pipes and Cinderella, the smart money would be on Cinderella.
If youd like to be on or off, please FR mail me.
..................
So did I...made we wonder if he was in the same 'camp' as Fukuyama...
No, the end point of human evolution is not democracy.
Putin's neo-Stalinism flourishes. The beetles of Beijing suppress without the sensationalism of Mao's Red Guards and Little Red Book.
We have Brzezinski saying it isn't time to destabilize Iran--the Brezinski who coauthored the 2004 Council on Foreign Relations paper "Iran: Time for a New Direction" with former DCI and Bush's and Obama's SecDef Robert Gates.
And of course the obedient student Hussein is in step.
No, Pipes is lulled by the Islamist forces lying motionless in the field of grass in their carefully woven grass suits.
Huh, from Daniel Pipes, interesting. Thanks Uncle Miltie.
Bump that! I love the graphic! However, better than that are your words.
The old saying...the enemy of my enemy is my friend. That’s in play now.
I’m not surprised that the 44th Czar is in repose...that’s his favorite, favored and, with his handler’s encouragement, best position. He’s our Present...
“We need Sarah Palin and John Bolton and David Petraeus, not a taqiya-talking KGB Active Measures bionic imam.”
The Dream Team!
This is not a criticism of your post...just my eyes. Would you please put your font in bold next time? My old eyes had a hard time reading your fabulous post. But, I did...;o)
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