Anybody that follows GOP politics knew tht Giuliani’s support was weak and that he would never get through a GOP Primary as a liberal.
Two other significant things happened in that GOP Primary:
1. Conservatives weren’t united and McCain just wrapped up the Establishment GOP vote...divide and be conquered.
2. The people that started with less than 5 percent support, stayed under 5 percent support.
Romney or
Palin
Take it to the bank.
The opposite was claimed by numerous political "experts" here at the time... Giuliani was the man to beat because of his heroic 9/11 image, and "southern fried Reagan" Fred Thompson was portrayed as the ONLY man capable of doing it. Poll after poll reflected those claims.
>> 1. Conservatives weren’t united and McCain just wrapped up the Establishment GOP vote <<
McCain was dismissed as a has-been who had lost his signature issue (campaign finance reform) and the weakest sister in the "Rudy McRomney" trio.
>> 2. The people that started with less than 5 percent support, stayed under 5 percent support. <<
Huckabee was polling 2% and listed as one of the "Second tier" candidates who stood NO chance of winning a primary. Then he beat Romney in Iowa and the whole dynamics of the game changed and the pre-primary polls proved to be worthless.
>> Romney or Palin Take it to the bank. <<
I'll gladly take it to the bank. In 2000, Liddy Dole was a "frontrunner" for the GOP nomination. In 2004, Howard Dean had a huge lead in the Dem primary. In 2008, people were absolutely certain the Dem nominee would be Hillary, and the GOP nominee would be Giuliani unless Fred Thompson stopped him.
These early pre-announcement polls mean absolutely nothing. Iowa and New Hampshire always change the dynamics of the game. But if you want to accept them as gospel, I will gladly revisit this issue in a year and ping you on it.