Posted on 02/21/2011 1:16:59 PM PST by neverdem
One of the most surreal experiences of my life — even apart from having a ruptured appendix and emergency surgery in a Gaddafi-government clinic — was a spring assignment in Libya to lecture on the Roman ruins there (which are quite impressive, since the neglect and ensuing 40 years of sand have, in counterintuitive fashion, been a protective cocoon from Gaddafi’s far greater ravages).
It was like no other country I have ever visited: wet garbage and sewage in the streets; an oil-exporter with massive pot-holes and no asphalt to fix them; almost every room, office, or hallway in Tripoli with peeling paint, exposed wiring, and something broken; the airport a disaster; almost every human action a possible violation of some government statute.
And, of course, Gaddafi’s picture was everywhere — sometimes as the protector of Islam, sometimes a sort of new-age Stalin, sometimes as the spiritual leader of black Africa, always presented with a nauseating green backdrop. In fact, books, shirts, even simple packaging was green. Citizens were terrified and talked in whispers, often relating some of the strangest rumors imaginable: past calls to burn all violins, past calls for every citizen to raise chickens, past calls for bonuses for marrying black African nationals. I arrived the day Lionel Ritchie was playing a 20th-anniversary anti-American concert commemorating Gaddafi’s heroic resistance to the Reagan bombing.
In sum, Gaddafi seems to have managed to destroy almost everything he touched: infrastructure, normal human interaction, the energy industry, the media — every aspect of life bore his destructive handprint.
So what does his apparent departure portend? Some random thoughts:
1) This is the first totalitarian, collectivist terror state to topple in this period of Middle Eastern unrest, which raises the question of whether others (e.g., Syria, Iran) might also face the same fate as Tunisia and Egypt, despite their willingness to shoot and kill indiscriminately and ban the international press.
2) Gaddafi hated the United States. Anti-American propaganda was spoon-fed to the population hourly (I remember watching the evenings newsreels’ ad nauseam depictions of U.S. “crimes” in Iraq). We are disliked by some countries’ protesters for cozying up to Saudi, Tunisian, Egyptian, and Pakistani authoritarians; does it necessarily follow that we will be liked by the opponents of anti-American authoritarians? Does anti-anti-Americanism translate into pro-Americanism?
I doubt it. In 2006, I heard constantly from my minders and others that Gaddafi was installed through some sort of U.S./Zionist plot to impoverish Libya. In general, if the Middle East becomes more ‘democratic’ (as in plebiscites without constitutions), we should brace, at least in the beginning, for a grassroots outpouring of anti-Western, anti-American, and anti-Semitic venom, given what we have seen in various polls of popular opinion.
3) We were far less culpable than the Europeans in dealing with this monster — especially the British and Italians, who simply overlooked Libyans’ virtual imprisonment and looked for profits wherever possible.
4) The country has great natural beauty, a stunning coastline, a central location, untapped gas and oil reserves (Gaddafi’s incompetence often meant that oil was not so easy to extract and squander), incredible antiquities — and unlimited tourist and commercial potential should it ever embrace constitutional government.
5) Libyans seemed to me terrified of Egyptians, including the tens of thousands of illegal-alien Egyptians in their country. The oil fields in their lightly populated country are a little too near for their comfort to the border of the oil-needy, overpopulated Egyptian powerhouse. The oil-rich border regions between the two countries will be of interest in the days ahead.
6) What is the U.S. official policy in all this? Is there a consistent one? When it came to encouraging anti-theocratic protesters in Iran, our policy was not to meddle; then we meddled quite a lot in anti-authoritarian protests in Egypt. Cannot the administration at last state that it supports non-violent, gradual transitions to consensual government, institutionalized secular human rights, and an independent judiciary — regardless of whether the overthrown government was hard-right authoritarian or hard-left totalitarian or theocratic Islamist? Since all governments and figures in the Middle East seem transitory, it would be far better to establish a policy that is principled and constant, no matter the ideologies and authoritarians involved.
In other words, I think the Obama administration’s “reset” outreach to countries like Iran and Syria is moribund — as it should be. Oppressed peoples in nightmarish states do not care to hear of our efforts to reach out to their oppressors, multiculturalism or no multiculturalism.
Thanks for the link!
Thanks for the link!
Thanks for the link!
Qaddafy: the Obama of Libya.
The oil fields in their lightly populated country are a little too near for their comfort to the border of the oil-needy, overpopulated Egyptian powerhouse. The oil-rich border regions between the two countries will be of interest in the days ahead.
Interesting indeed. If the Egyptians make a grab, will Libya yell for help from the US? Just as importantly, would we do so?
FOREIGN POLICY IS LIABLE TO BE THE FRONT AND CENTER ISSUE IN EARLY 2012 IN THE EARY PRIMARIES, particularly if that whole region goes to hell in a handbasket or nears such a horrendous possibility. Ambassador Bolton will wipe the floor with his GOP competitors on foreign policy and then Obama--for Soetero's complete incompetence, abject foolishessness and outrigh perilous danger in this current situation (or any other Democrat takers) due to his deep, saged, well-aged and thoughtful if not excellent, strategic grasp of what we as a nation need to do on the World Stage in the case of such anarchy, uprising, violence, destabilization and chaos, all emanating from Middle East, Gulf, South Asia and North Africa regions.
Hansen gives an analysis in which I concur. There are no (at least no easy) answers to the Middle east at present. The entire region was long ago consumed by an ideology which inhibits anything like entering the kind of world which we ourselves inhabit. Until that ideology is extinct, they will also be, alas, both alien, and a mortal threat to our own ideology.
This is a fact, as difficult as it seems to accept, or not. Once the fact is accepted, however, the the question remains, what to do about this threat. The answer is, there are no easy, neat, clean, morally acceptable ones at present. It is beyond human ability to solve, humanely. Thus, it can and should, lie in God's hands, and His alone...
the infowarrior
Josh Bolton is almost definitely going to run for POTUS, but by all appearances, he is really campaigning for a VP slot, and by all rights, he probably should get it, depending on whom the eventual nominee is.
It's John whom I really want!
I 2nd that motion
FWIW, I am a big supporter of JOHN Bolton, and, no matter what, he will help the debate in a meaningful way, his influence and expertise could provide a real learning experience for any candidate....
The fundamental problem is that there are no easy answers, there is massive instability in the Middle East, and there is perhaps little we can really do.
We live in interesting times.
Thanks neverdem. All he has to do is last the next couple of weeks and the riots will run out of gas; then the real crackdown will start, causing a big outflow of Libyan exiles to neighboring countries, probably Tunisia and Egypt, and also to Europe and the US.
Even the rats are leaving http://www.saudigazette.com.sa/index.cfm?method=home.regcon&contentID=2011022394451 it might be civil war, until Libya break apart in two countries.
http://www.trust.org/alertnet/news/analysis-libyas-tribal-politics-key-to-gaddafis-fate
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.