Iran Live Blog: 25 Bahman / 14 February

Tehrean Bureau ^ | 14 Feb 2011 | several

[AdmSmith]

What will happen Monday, history will record in less than 24 hours. The atmosphere is filled by suspense over the call for demonstration. Certainly the city is not calm. There were chants of "Allah-o akbar" across Tehran. People expect something to happen. Publicly, Mr. Karroubi and Mr. Mousavi have called for a demonstration in solidarity with the people of Egypt. Nobody thinks or believes this is about Egypt or will remain focused on Egypt. No wonder that their request has been rejected as illegal. Their advisers have announced that according to Article 27 of Iran's Constitution there is no need for a permit. It must be noted that both leaders are under house arrest now. Most likely they will be prevented from attending the demonstration. [While Karroubi has been under house arrest for four days, there is no independent confirmation that Mousavi has been similarly confined. As we noted two-and-a-half hours ago, a senior adviser to the former presidential candidate says that his mobile phone has been disconnected and it has not been possible to reach him. --Ed.]

[PapaBear3625]

There may be one glimmer of hope there, though. The government’s reliance on irregular paramilitaries like the Basij during last year’s riots probably indicates it’s lack of confidence in the political reliability of the Revolutionary Guards, let alone the regular army. It was, after all, reported that they arrested the Revolutionary Guards’ commander for refusal to use force on the protesters.

It's possible that the issue is class-based. The Revolutionary Guards and army may have relatives among the middle-class protesters. The Basij are recruited more from the poor/underclass. Something to remember if push comes to shove here and the Dems try creating a security force which recruits heavily from the urban underclass.

[AmericanInTokyo]

Simple. Because, liberal, Western mainstream, driveby media want an Islamic state in Egypt. And they want the continuation of one in (nuclear) Iran. That’s why. It is suicidal. It is a mental disorder.

[fight_truth_decay]

Repeat performances 24 hours later in Yemen's capital, Sana'a, at Sana'a University and Tahrir Square..calls for "Ali Abdullah Saleh to step down!" and another “day of rage” protest in Algiers.. "Bouteflika, out"!

[FourPeas]

BBC Farsi posts Photo Album of 25 Bahman protests.

[JPG]

The difference in the coverage and interest of the MSM between Egypt and Iran is stunning. Even if they don't hate America they apparently don't much like it either.

[The Pack Knight]

Reports coming in on twitter of small number of people killed. There’s also lots and lots of video, some obviously from last year. Iranian gov’t trying to discredit reports?

Perhaps, though I'd say it is more likely that protesters or their sympathizers are exaggerating events there. These people probably think they're helping by doing so. Even people with good motives aren't necessarily reliable sources of information when they have a strong incentive to stretch the truth, especially when they come from a culture where the truth is not as highly valued as a good story.

More often than not, the fog of war is not the result of deliberate enemy deception. It's best to take every report with a grain of salt, even when it comes from a friendly source.

[fight_truth_decay]

Al Jazeera

[FourPeas]

the truth is not as highly valued

Good point.

[no-to-illegals]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4JK_6osCH74&feature=related ... Word of God Speak ... Stay Strong, God Is With You, Dear People of Iran ... Freedom Awaits All Who Desire The Blessing.

[Honorary Serb]

God is with Us! S nami Bog!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=avNjWcwUzIs

God be with the people of Iran, and free them!!!!

[davidosborne]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4JK_6osCH74

WORD OF GOD SPEAK !!!

Father God may we ALL fall down on our faces NOW and praise YOU for who you are and seek YOUR DIVINE WILL in all that is happening in our world !

Amen and Amen !

[The Pack Knight]

That’s a good point. That sort of class warfare certainly came into play during the Tiananmen Square massacre. The government brought in PLA units from rural provinces to do their dirty work because the units in Beijing were believed to be sympathetic to the protesters. Soldiers drawn from poor, rural provinces came from an entirely different culture altogether from the “bourgeois” student protesters, and had little scruple against putting them down by force.

As for here, the left seems to believe that the Army already comes from the urban underclass - just ask Michael Moore and Charlie Rangel. I wonder how deep that belief goes, when most of us know that that is hogwash and that our soldiers disproportionately come from affluent middle-class backgrounds. Also, at the risk of sounding elitist, we can take some comfort in the fact that if the urban underclass were disciplined enough to make an effective fighting force, they probably wouldn’t be part of the urban underclass in this country.

[nuconvert]

Yes I saw that. Obviously a lot more injured than 2. Maybe getting hit with a baton once or twice doesn’t count as being injured

[FourPeas]

A BBC producer in the Iranian capital, who was affected by the gas, described central Tehran as “total chaos”.

He said “severe clashes” were taking place between protesters and police and there had been many arrests.

BBC

[no-to-illegals]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xi0yLRX4d2M&feature=related ... How Great Is Our God ... People of Iran, God Has His Eyes On You ... The Time For Your Freedom Draws Closer. Vanquish Your Oppressors, in Peacefulness.

[PapaBear3625]

Doing more research into them, it also appears that in order to get into the Basij, you need to get a recommendation from your local mosque's mullah. The mosque also serves as a gathering place and hangout for the Basij, with the mullah having supervisory duties over them.

This will tend to make the Basij be composed of the most hard-core true-believers. Once you get into the Basij, you get preferential treatment in hiring for government positions, and other perks. Your Basij gig is a part-time thing.

[PapaBear3625]

Vanquish Your Oppressors, in Peacefulness.

That's what was tried last time. The Gandhi approach didn't work. The only thing that will work is a campaign of assassination directed against the mullahs and their Basij thugs.

[nuconvert]

http://twitter.com/#!/sayahcnn/status/37175612674154497

7p Tehran witness - crowds swell to 10s of thousands - walk quietly towards Azadi sq. #iran #25bahman #cnn

[nuconvert]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZSI8dTjB_yk

[HushTX]

No, it can’t.

Regardless of the similarities, no uprising in any nation is ever a repeat of another.

That said, we can certainly hope there is a similar outcome. I’d LOVE to see Iran’s current regime fall, and fall hard.