Posted on 02/08/2011 10:34:48 AM PST by Rational Thought
"Republicans are divided on their choice for the GOP nominee in 2012, but they are united in their desire to see Obama ousted from the White House," says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland.
The survey indicates that the race for the Republican nomination is still wide open, with Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, and Mitt Romney all clustered at the top of the pack. Twenty-one percent of Republicans and independents who lean Republican say if Huckabee, the former Arkansas governor and 2008 GOP presidential candidate, decides to run for the White House, they would be likely to support him for their party's presidential nomination, followed by Palin, the former Alaska governor & 2008 GOP vice presidential nominee, at 19 percent, and Romney, the former Massachusetts governor and 2008 Republican presidential contender, at 18 percent.
(Excerpt) Read more at politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com ...
As long as the Republican party nominates someone who’s an actual conservative, we will get a winner. It’s only by betraying principles for the illusion of “electability” that we can get in trouble.
This will all come down to the campaign. If Gov. Palin is as good a campaigner as I think she is, the “moderate” Republican voter will turn out to some degree while the Conservative Republican voter would turn out in massive numbers.
Your point about the establishment Republicans is dead on and would be her biggest obstacle.
Same here. I liked Fred.
well, i wouldn’t go that far? all but wrapped up is a bit too presumptuous. People thought Hillary had it all but wrapped up.
I continue to be perplexed by Huckabee’s support. I’m fairly involved in politics, talk with people who are, etc... most of whom are pretty conservative and I don’t know any of them who really like Huckabee. It’s almost like when Nixon won in 72 and that NYT writer said “How did he win, I don’t know anyone who voted for him”.
Huckabee must have support out there, but I haven’t really seen it. Just look at his PAC #s compared to the others for example. Romney had around 3500 $200+ donors. Palin had around 2500. Pawlenty had around 1500. Huckabee had around 400. Now, I know that doesn’t tell you everything, but it sholud give you some idea of the level of enthusiasm and support out there. And Huckabee wasn’t just behind, he was way behind. Same in terms of total $ raised.
I think a lot of his support may be from people who otherwise would like Palin but just don’t think she can win so they go with Huckabee instead. It would explain why she leads the 2nd choice question.
I’d like to see a poll that asked “If you knew the Republican was guaranteed to win in 2012 who would you choose for the nominee?” I think Palin would do omuch better in that. I think a main problem for her is that people think she’s unelectable so they go with someone else.
I’d also like to see poll of Obama/Biden vs Palin/Huckabee or Palin/Romney. I think she’d do much better in general polls vs Obama if she was listed along with a potential VP and it was ticket vs ticket not just her vs Obama. I think most of those who’d vote for Huckabee or Romney over Obama but not Palin, would vote for her over Obama if one of them was along as VP.
I won't vote for Hucklebug if he is the GOP nominee.
I think most of that would change if she ends up the nominee. It will mean she’s successfully gone through a whole campaign, a whole bunch of debates, a whole bunch of forums, speeches, a whole bunch of rallies, unveiled a whoel set of policies, etc... And through it all emerged on top of all the other contenders.
If that happens, by the time she wins the nomination and gets to the convention people will see her differently. They’ll see her more as a serious candidate with serious ideas and will have been used to seeing her campaign for a year or more. She’ll have a more moderate VP that will bring people on board.
So, if she does get the nomination, it will mean that things will be very different than they are today.
Of course we shouldn’t get over confident, but check out my break down in post #24... I think I make a compelling case.
I think Governor Palin is in way better shape than many think.
Of course it will still be a hard fought battle, but Palin supporters need to remain confident,(the biggest problem is staying positive with all the endless smears and derision) she is in the pole position and perfectly aligned to win it all.
I just can’t buy this. I’m open to alot of folks in the GOP at this point but I’ll not support Governor Gomer Huckleberry or the great Myth.
I don’t really care about polls until people have actually entered the race.
I think Huckabee is the fulcrum. If he runs, things get a lot tougher. He is very strong in IA. Very strong. And as southerner, he will be very tough in SC. If he doesn’t run, things get quite a bit easier. Also, if people like Demint or Bachmann run that could complicate things.
I think if she runs her campaign will go one of two ways. Either she’ll do very well and romp. Or, things will go very badly. I don’t really see a lot of in between.
Huck = socialistic RINO.
Because we do so well with perceived moderates like Dole and McCain and so poorly with perceived consevatives like Reagan and W.
If Huckabee gets the GOP nomination, it will only ensure a third party run because Huckabee cannot beat Obama, anyway.
People this is just the liberal media trying to pick our candidate for us, and they want a RINO like McCain or someone who is not a conservative. Same old game plan they play each election: The republican candidate must be someone who can win the independents (i.e., the candidate must be a RINO or democrat light).
Let's see... we get landslides with conservative candidates and lose with moderates...
History: noun. Where political theatre meets political reality.
Where did I recommend a moderate candidate? Never. And I never will.
Intersting stuff. It certainly helps Palin if Huckabee doesn’t run.
Concern noted, and ignored.
Concern? lol.
I know. That stuff always cracks me up.
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