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I've been hearing that. I have a hard time seeing another Giuliani campaign going anywhere. His performance in 2008 has really damaged his credibility as a national campaigner.

He is blaming his performance on his "Florida or Bust" strategy, and that actually does seem like the most proximate cause of his failure. He was leading in Florida in virtually every poll right up until the New Hampshire primary, and fell behind McCain and Romney almost immediately afterwards. Had he been successful in winning Florida then he would have been in a very strong position going into Super Tuesday, trailing only Romney in delegates.

If that is the case, then I actually don't think it reflects too poorly on him as a candidate. Having the Florida primary - a large, winner-take-all primary in an important General Election battleground state - two weeks before Super Tuesday was unprecedented, and there were a lot of reasons at the time to think that focusing on Florida to the exclusion of the other early states was a winning strategy. Hindsight being 20/20, it turned out to be the wrong strategy, but it's hard to blame him for trying it.

Of course, that wasn't the only reason he lost. While I don't think his liberal social positions were at all fatal to his campaign, they did contribute to its failure. For one thing, part of the reason he focused on Florida is that he didn't think he had a chance in socially conservative Iowa and South Carolina. Also, while I think it's clear that a lot of even socially conservative Republicans were willing to vote for Giuliani despite his positions, they were much less willing to do so when Giuliani stopped looking like a winner.

The big problem for him this time around is that, while he has learned his lesson and knows he has to win in Iowa or New Hampshire, it's going to be even harder for him to do that this time around. He still has the same problems with social conservatives in Iowa that he has always had, and Romney is dug in so deep in New Hampshire that he is going to be difficult for anyone to knock off there. Yeah, he could try South Carolina, but if history is any guide, South Carolina is important as a rubber match for the guys who won Iowa and New Hampshire, not as a place to save the campaign of someone who has won neither.

My guess is that Giuliani may well come to this conclusion himself before too long and decide not to run. I think he knows this is probably his last chance, and doesn't want to let it go by without testing the waters. Ultimately, though, Rudy is a smart guy and probably won't waste time or money on a futile campaign.