Posted on 02/06/2011 9:37:34 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
John J. Miller has a cover story in the new issue of National Review that’s a compelling portrait of the accomplishments of Jeb Bush. Four years after leaving the Florida governor’s mansion, he remains one of the most impressive Republican politicians in the country, a formidable policy mind with the political chops to drive conservative reforms even out of office. So why isn’t he running for president? Bush told Miller what he’s said to others, too — he won’t run in 2012, but he’ll consider 2016. This is a mistake. Bush should run now for at least eight reasons:
1) It’s a wide-open field for a nomination that’s worth having. Rarely do you get such a convergence of a beatable incumbent president with a wide-open field to challenge him. Obama is slightly below 50 percent in the polls, with a real weakness in the middle of the country, and he’s saddled with a recovery that has yet to produce substantial job growth. Yet there is no true frontrunner in the race to challenge him. It’s hard to imagine an environment better suited for a heavyweight like Jeb to make a run.
2) 2016 is too late I. By 2016, Jeb will have been out of office ten years. No doubt he will have made many contributions to the cause in the interim, but by then his main credential — his governorship and its accomplishments — will seem like yesterday’s news. Right now he has the feel of an elder statesman of the party while his time in office is still fresh.
3) 2016 is too late II. By 2016, a bumper crop of Republican talent will be poised to storm the national stage. Marco Rubio not only will be the hot new thing out of Florida, he’ll be seasoned. Chris Christie will be ready. A host of senators and governors — freshly minted in the 2010 elections, so it’s too soon for them to run now — will be ready to go. Jeb will not be such a predominant figure in such a robust field. The crop of prospective GOP candidates this time reflects the downdraft in Republican fortunes in 2006 and 2008. Jeb would loom all the larger for it.
4) The Bush rehabilitation has begun. George W. Bush is not exactly popular, but two years of Obama have taken the edge off W.-hatred, and he’s risen from the depths of his unpopularity near the end of his presidency. Gallup had a poll in December that had Bush’s approval rating very slightly above President Obama’s. Bush’s book, Decision Points, and the accompanying media tour were successes. In 2008, Jeb’s association with his brother would have been an absolute killer. That’s not true anymore. The controversies that made the Bush years so venomous have faded, and — partly through the miracle of the accelerated news cycle — 2000–2008 already feels somewhat distant.
5) Jeb will still be a Bush in 2016. There’s no doubt that it will always be awkward for Jeb to be the third Bush; it will always have a dynastic feel about it. But that will remain as true in 2016. If Jeb runs in four years, after Obama presumably wins a second term in 2012, he will still be vying to be the third Republican president in a row who’s a Bush. Waiting until 2016 won’t make that fact any less odd.
6) He’s not just another Bush. Jeb is different from his patrician dad and different from his thoroughly Texan brother. As soon as people see him on the national stage, they’ll realize he’s his own person and has to be taken on his own terms.
7) Jeb can unite the party. Jeb probably has a better chance to unite the establishment and Tea Party wings of the GOP than anyone else, certainly a better chance than Sarah Palin or Mitt Romney would seem to have at this juncture. The establishment would presumably flock to Jeb, while he’d have a record of solid conservative accomplishment to sell to the conservative base. Some tea partiers will have zero interest in another Bush, and Jeb will take his lumps on immigration (at NR, we’ll look forward to administering some of them, and trying to change his mind). It’s a very volatile environment, and were he to run, much would obviously depend on how he actually campaigned. But he would stand a good chance of avoiding a damaging division in the party.
8) Waiting is almost always a mistake. It’s an axiom of presidential politics that you have to run when you have the opening, even if it seems “too soon.” This is why Bill Clinton and Barack Obama were elected president and Mario Cuomo never was. Jeb’s opening is now — “too soon” after his brother’s presidency, “too soon” into his life as an ex-governor — and it will probably never quite be there again.
In short, if Jeb feels a call to run for president, it has to be 2012, not 2016.
Ain’t that the truth.
Sorry Rich, The Bushes have worn out their welcome in the White House. If he wants to run for US Senate from Florida, okay by me. But not President.
This presumes that "uniting" the two is a desirable goal. I'd rather enlarge the Tea Party by demonstrating that it truly represents the people without kissing up to transnational corporations that give money to both sides looking to cut their best deal in terms of regulatory favors at the expense of American citizens.
Indeed. The stuff that passes for “conservative” on NR/NRO is pathetic.
The once-stalwart conservative organ is now conservative on only one issue, that being abortion, and for the rest... it is all negotiable.
On the whole, NR is now so filled with Catholic church politics that it is impossible to take seriously.
I am 100% for right to life. Buuuuuuuut, if I was in that same situation, and I was cognizant of what was going on, I can think of no greater torture than can be inflicted upon any human being than to be stuck in bed day after day, week after week, month after month, year after year after year after year, unable to move, unable to communicate, unable to work, unable to do anything, watching how it is destroying my family, children, and freinds, little by little, drip by drip.
There is simply no greater torture I can possibly imagine. Assuming her brain was working (which I do not believe it was). I would rather be set afire, than spend even one month in that state, at least if I was set afire I would know the torture would have an end to it. That condition is worse than any prison sentence the worst of all dictators can possibly devise. Year after year of not being able to go to the bathroom yourself, take a shower yourself, watch a sunrise, a sunset, take a walk, or a bike ride, cook, eat, read a book, talk on the phone, talk to your children, eat yourself, go to the park, the ocean, the mountains, the desert, scratch an itch on your back or even tell someone there is one. A religious person should have the compassion to not torture someone in such a way simply to keep a single heart beating. Who is it helping by keeping a person artificially alive in such a manner? If you believe in heaven, then you are prolonging the transition that would naturally happen without machines for no benefit to anybody, most especially the patient. If she was truly cognizant of the world, then you robbed her of years and years of any quality of life whatsoever, nobody, and I mean nobody can tell me that she would not have rather spared herself and her family years of this torture (if you can, then you had better be prepared to explain to me why people aren’t lining up to volunteer themselves multiple year jail sentences, as personally, I would rather spend a 10 year sentence in solitary than do even one year of this...at least there I could use the bathroom myself, and know there would be an end to it).
So, no Terri Shiavo is not a good argument for me
On the other hand, No more Bush’s
Good point. Let him run, he will lose badly. Time to rid ourselves of not only the Bushes, but the power of all their stooges in the establishment.
A great big republican house cleanup with only one primary.
If Jeb runs, I will put my heart and soul into seeing he is defeated...in both Primary and General Election.
Try me.
He’s not just another Bush. Jeb is differentYeah different, like Obama different!
I don't/didn't live in Florida but I do remember he wouldn't allow drilling off of Florida's coast...I also remember some private property land grabs
WFB just hit the redline in his grave...
- JP
Go away.
True.
But on the other hand, think of all the wonderful knock-knock jokes you could come up with.
No more Bushes... NOT ONE... EVER EVER EVER!!!
I have to agree with you. I think GWHB was a better President than he was given credit for. He was unfortunate that Ross Perot siphoned off enough votes that Clinton was elected with 43% of the popular vote.
Less keen on GWB and I wouldn’t care if Jeb is the second-coming of Abraham Lincoln, I think for the good of the country and the GOP, he should not even consider running.
I have to agree with you. I think GWHB was a better President than he was given credit for. He was unfortunate that Ross Perot siphoned off enough votes that Clinton was elected with 43% of the popular vote.
Less keen on GWB and I wouldn’t care if Jeb is the second-coming of Abraham Lincoln, I think for the good of the country and the GOP, he should not even consider running.
Otherwise, no deal. They all suck eggs.
“7) Jeb can unite the party. Jeb probably has a better chance to unite the establishment and Tea Party wings of the GOP than anyone else”
Get this straight. No one wants a union between the ‘establishment’ and the Tea Party - not the establishment nor the Tea Party. The establishment can either get aboard this train or stay at the station. They can ride along but they can’t drive the engine anymore or throw any switches along the way.
Jeb, find a good hobby to fill your time. We don’t another Bush.
Hope that is not the case. Do think it a mistake for Jeb to say he will not run until 2016 - as it does make it appear that Obama as 2012 winner, is foregone conclusion. Think that is the worse message to Repubs and to Obama, Inc.
(Beyond that, as for 'dynasty' talk; unlike the Kennedy's; or Clinton 'wishful thinkingg'; or just the imperial Obama - the Bush's are not looking for; nor interested in; establishing such.)
Nonsense. STUPID VOTERS gave us the marxist. Bush didn’t help anything by not defending himself but overall it was the stupidity of voters plus those that, well,.. sat out the election...because, well. they just couldn’t bring themselves to vote for McCain/Palin. Idiots casted a vote for the marxist by not casting a vote.
Overall though NO more Bushs...period.
soes lil jebbie’s wifey havew a mexican passport? hmmmmmmmmm?
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