2011 UPDATE - The Rising Sea Dragon in Asia (about the Red Chinese Navy)

THE RISING SEA DRAGON IN ASIA ^ | January 2, 2011 | Jeff Head

[Jeff Head]

(Click on any image for a larger picture)

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The year of 2010 has seen the PLAN ramp up its shipbuilding again significantly. New units of the Type 054A FFG Guided missiles Frigate, the Xuzhou Class with radar reducing signatures, VLS missiles and helo capabilities. New units of the Type 052C DDG Guided missile Desroyer, the Lanzhou Class with VLS, Phased Array Radar (PAR), and an AEGIS style battle management system. New units of the Type 093 SSN, Nuclear attack Submarine, the Shang Class, with improved reactors, sensors, and weapons suite. New units of the SSK Independent Air Propulsion diesel/electric attack submarine, the Yuan Class, which are very quiet and dangerous in litoral waters. A second Type 071 LPD, Landing Platform Dock, the Kunlunshan Class, which is similar in size, function and basic configuration to the US San Antonio Class LPD, with a well deck, large helo platform and hanger, and strong self defense. Significant progress on the former Varyag Carrier, the Shi Lang, which is now in final outfitting stages with itts sensor and weapons suite being installed as this is written.

Ongoing exercises of the many new units the PLAN has introduced into its fleets continues to improve their performance and ability to operaate cohesively with their new technology, particularly as surface action groups and task forces. This will continue at an increased tempo once their new carrier is launched and introduced into the fleet.

In addition, right at the end of the year, the PLAAF rolled out for taxi tests its first prototype stealth fighter, the J-20. This was sooner than most analysts had expected and intorduces the Chinese into the fifth generation stealth fighter areana.

These developments represent continued and significant progress by the PLAN in establishing itself as a blue water presence, capable of extending itself far from its coasts, out to and beyond the 2nd island chain. They have continued to demonstrate their ability to do this and sustain strong surface action task forces in the international effort to control the piracy off the Somali coast, maintaining warships and replenishment ships in the area over long periods of time.

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CONTINUED SERIAL PRODUCTION OF THE STRONG GUIDED MISSILE FRIGATE, THE XUZHOU CLASS



More guided missile frigates coming off serial production lines in both HP and HD shipyards. The PLAN is approaching a dozen of these new frigates.


Continued exercises of the growing fleet of modern guided missile frigates.

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RESUMPTION OF SERIAL PRODUCTION OF THE LANZHOU CLASS DDG, THE PLAN AEGIS-LIKE DDG





Another Type 052C new DDG has already been launched with another close to being complete, and two more in line behind them. This will make six of the very capable 052C class.

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A SECOND, NEW LPD OF THE KUNLUNSHAN CLASS LAUNCHED




The PLAN built and launched a econd LPD of the Class in 2010...


Continued exercises of LPDs are continuing as the PLAN integrates this strong amphibious assault class into its fleets

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MORE JUAN CLASS DIESEL/ELECTRIC SUBS & SHANG CLASS NUCLEAR ATTACK SUBS




The PLAN continues to build and launch more SSK, Yuan Class Air-Independent propulsion diesel/electric submarines.



The PLAN also continues to build and luanch more of the new, Type 093 SSN nuclear attack submarines .

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THE PLAN IS FINALIZING WEAPONS AND SENSOR FITTING ON ITS NEW CARRIER, THE SHILANG (Former Varyag)






Final weapons and sensor fittting is being completed on the former Varyag, the Shilang
Apparently FL-300N and Type 730 CIWS will be fitted, with the sensors to control them.
For more info see the Varyag Transformation Page on this site.

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Outside of naval operations, but potentially impacting them should a carrier derivitive be developed, the PLAAF rolled out its first fifth generation stealth fighter prototype, the J-20, for taxi tests at the end of the year (2010). The aircraft appears to combine the characteristsics of the front end of the United States F-22 Raptor (which is the only fifth generation stealth fighter actually in full production with over 100 having been produced), with the tail end portion of the prototype T-50 (two of which jave been produced) being built by Russia and Pakistan.





The PLAAF 1st Prototype Stealth Fighter, the J-20, in Taxi tests

Finally, in addition, as stated in last year's update of 2010, the PLAN continues to build all of the support aircraft and structres necessary to project their growing naval forces. They are keeping in line with their own stated purposes of extending their power and ability to protect their interests out well beyond their coatsal waters, out to and beyond the second Island chain in the western Pacific. As one of their leaders lately stated, “In the coming five years, our military will push forward preparations for military conflict in every strategic direction,” said Liang Guanglie in an interview published by several state-backed newspapers in China. “We may.be living in peaceful times, but we can never forget war, never send the horses south or put the bayonets and guns away,” Liang added. The PLAN is developing its systems and support systems in line with these sentiments.

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PLAN BUILDING MORE NEW ALCM CARRYING BADGER AIRCRAFT




More long-range crusie carrying badger aircraft being introduced to the PLAN.

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THE PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC CONTINUES TO GROW ITS OVERALL AWACS AND ELINT CAPABILITY




More full-sized, very capable PLAAF AWACS Aircraft airwings are being added.




AWACS and ELINT Aircraft appearing at more airbases throughout China.

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THE PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC CONTINUES TO GROW ITS OVERALL 4TH GENERATION FIGHTER & ATTACK AIRCRAFT




More J10 Fighter/Bomber airwings oufitted and placed in service




More S-27, SU-30, and J11 Fighter/Bomber airwings oufitted and placed in service



The PLAAF continues to grow its JH-7, long-range attack aircraft capability.

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Once again, by way of reference, it must be emphasized that measuring now over the least 13 years, in general numbers, the PLAN has grown their major combatan fleet at a rate of over 115%. In that same period, the US Navy has seen a net loss at an overall rate of over a negative 14%, which is slower than last year and on the upswing, but still a net decline. The US Navy continueed in 2010 to turn around its negative attrition rate, adding more guided missile destroyers, guided missile frigates, Virginia class nuclear attack submarines, and San Antonio class landing ship docks overcoming its decommissioning rate. This trend is expected to continue and accellerate marginally over each of the next several years.

Clearly the overall trend shows that the PLAN continues to rapidly close the gap between itself and the US Navy, and particualrly when focusing on the Western Pacific, which is where the PLAN is concentrated. This is a trend that continues to be worthy of serious contemplation for future US Navy and other western nation's planning and acquisition schedules.

[Jeff Head]

Although there is a lot of propganda they are producing about their smoke and mirror carrier killer missile (which they are studying, but have not produced a singel operational test of any kind to date), what is listed here is real, and its something we must be concerned about in any case. They are continuing a naval shipbuilding program that is phenominal...and sadly, our commerce with them is funding it

[Jeff Head]

My 2011 Update regarding the Red Chinese Navy.

[WellyP]

“No eyes, no can see” Interesting, almost every skiff, boat or ship in China has eyes painted near the bow. The Navy has failed to do this. Very bad Juju!!

[mcshot]

I sure hope our navy is keeping up with anti-missile defenses as I fear our ships could be easily overwhelmed.
But I suppose that foreign guy would like to see our ships as fish shelters.

[Jeff Head]

we are still well ahead technologically. The AEGIS destroyers now number 62, with 22 AEGIS cruisers, so our missile defense is very, very strong. Still, we are scattered all over the world, though our Pacific Fleet is by far our largest. The Chinese are building a very modern and capable fleet. There is only one force they simply will have to counter...us. Though the Japanese are no push over by any stretch and at the current time could probably go toe to toe with the Chinese. But that is changing.

[WellyP]

S. Korea and Japan are starting to cooperate despite deep distrust on the part of the S. Koreans. As China gets stronger, Taiwan, Vietnam and the Philippines may join creating a ring around much of China. At some point I can see Korea, (a united Korea) Japan, Taiwan, Vietnam, Thailand, the Philippines and India forming some sort of an economic union and a security pack with the US to contain China.

[Jimmy Valentine]

I believe this is for limited force projection to secure China's "back door", i.e., the China Sea.

The Chinese, historically have never been effective at sea although they are obviously trying.

What they have been good at historically is land based operations. Remember they got all of the way to middle Europe on their last big run.

Valdimir Putin has to think of thousands of miles of land, resources of every type in mostly very lightly populated territory to defend.

If that does not keep him awake at night, he is a fool.

[hosepipe]

A "local" EMP device does not have to even be real close to the target..
I sure hope "we" have EMP capable devices "handy"..

[Forty-Niner]

Wake me when they start producing the equivalent of the American Bluejacket, CPO, JP Jones type officers, and Naval aviators.....till then they can knock themselves building target practice barges.

[editor-surveyor]

Thanks Jeff, for keeping us informed on this incredible menace.

(I’m sure that Obama can handle this)

[Dubya]

Happy New Year Jeff, keep up the good work.

[ponder life]

Though the Japanese are no push over by any stretch and at the current time could probably go toe to toe with the Chinese. But that is changing.

Look at what you are saying here, you are making a "toe to toe" comparison with China and Japan. Step back and try and be as impartial as you can about China.

China is a nation of 1.4 billion people and Japan is 125 million. You make it sound as if its a tragedy that China, with over 10 times the population of Japan, is finally tipping the balance of power in her favor.

But really, the trajedy, from a Chinese perspective, began way back in the 1890's when Japan (a much smaller nation), won the Sino-Japanese war, established herself as the key power in Asia. Not China. This really, from a Chinese perspective, is one of the great trajedies of modern times.

And this trajedy was further driven home, by the fact, that by the 1940's, a nation of 80 million (Japan), was able to overrun a nation of 480 million (China).

Japan and China, for the last 150 years have always been referred to as the "Asian powers". In reality, throughout the melenium, there was really only one.

The fact that China and Japan are reaching a tipping point, today, shows that China is merely catching up with the industrialized world (or getting closer, anyway) and one that is commensurate with her size.

And while the West mourn the shrinking of the British Navy, Britain is replacing two of her aircraft carriers with two modern carriers. If you take population in account, that would be like China building 45 carriers. But China has no where near that ambition or that capability.

The reason why people on the FR become alarmist about China's military build up, is because they are trying to fit a mid-sized European country and expectation onto China. When in reality, China is larger than Europe and North America combined.

[Jeff Head]

Irrespective of size, the reasons to be concerned about China’s modernization and buildup or simply as follows:

1) They are a communist nation and adhere to that ideology politically...totalitarian, one party rule.

2) They have overcome and discarded the failed Lennist/Maoist economic model in favor of a world market model that is more fascist in nauter and very nationalistic...and very pwoerful (even if, like us, they have their weaknesses).

When you couple these two, you have the potential for instability and conflict in the region as China with her own ambitions bumps up against democratic republics and something closer to the free market.

GErmany was a veyr small country population wise...but they had similar poitical and economic flavors and it took most of the world to put her down when they went rogue.

China is catching up, and she has the potential to jump ahead if we in the west do not stay on our toes.

[OwenKellogg]

>>> China is catching up, and she has the potential to jump ahead if we in the west do not stay on our toes.

As our FRiend, Quidam, use to say, “this is the dawn of the Pacific age.”

[ponder life]

I can certainly understand your concern. And I realize that a one party rule can raise suspicions. However, many in China, do support this one party rule for a season. Even if the long term expectation is a muli-party system in which society at large cast their vote. And the reason is simple. They know that a democratic process can, in some cases, be inefficient. In particular, when building the nation's infrastructure.

China is still a developing nation that needs to build things and build them quickly without being hampered with public hearings, environmental challenges, etc. Road, bridges, airports, etc. are all needed. So, ironically, while many in China aren't particularly fond of a one party rule, they know that in this period, it is necessary.

In regards to China's current economic model as being more facist, I agree that its a bit more desparate, but not facist. China's foreign policy, is driven almost entirely by her need for mineral and energy resources. Contrary to popular belief on the FR, when China is buddying up to the world unconditionally, she isn't trying to curry favor to leverage against Taiwan or the US. But rather, to gain access to energy. And of course, moving up the value chain to help pay for these resources.

In this regard, this may seem nationalistic or facist to you. But in reality, is it more of a desparation on the part of China. China surpassed the US in 2009 in total energy consumption. While current estimates put China's energy consumption to be 75% greater than 2009 by 2030, I personally believe it is under estimating China's future energy demand. Personally, I believe it will be 100+% more by 2025 (more than twice 2009 needs). If my projections are true, and they typically have been, China will basically need to find an annual equivalent of more than what the US consume in energy today by 2025.

I do believe it is rather egotistic to think that China wants to undermine US or Western influence as she looks to the world for resources and guard them.

Also, keep in mind, alot of those resources will come from Canada, Australia and even the US. Being the source of such resources provide significant leverage to these three countries, not to mention Russia and Brazil. Google the following: "China, US coal exports, Powder River Basin". You'll see that the US will be a growing exporter of coal to China. This ultimately is China's goal. You can have the role of world's policeman. China doesn't want it.

As I've said before, I personally believe there will come a day when Americans will resent China's lack of military involvement in global affairs while China benefits from the global trading system.

[Jeff Head]

Sorry, I do not buy that a one party, totalitarian rule is ever “good”. Certainly it can be efficient...the Germans proved that with what they accomplished. I just hope it stays contained until the Chinese people demand and get a more republican process in place in their nation.

There is ample room for concern, but I believe that the western nations will retain and maintain enough of a combined advantage to forestall any adventurism...at least I hope so.

As it is, I have tracked it for years and what the PLAN is doing is phenominal, one of the largest, most rapid naval modernization and buildup programs since before World War II. In fact, there is a naval arms race going on in the western pacific as a result with Japan, S. Korea, Australia, Taowan...and of course, the US all building more and faster than they had planned to ensure that things do not get out of hand.

Time will tell...but I am willing to say that the Chinese will have a full-deck carrier (STOBAR) in the refitted Varyag (probably christened the Shi Lang) at Sea probably this year and they will begin conducting trials with a fairly decent carrier strike group (which they will take years getting proficient at) and that they will add another two of their own design by 2020, with very modern and capable vessels to escort them.

Japan will respond with her two new VTOL carriers following up on the Hyuga class, the Australians will put their two to sea, the Koreans will build one or two more Dokdos, and the US will get its first and second ford class (CVN-78) to sea in the same time frame.

By 2020, the US will also be testing directed energy weapon CIWS for anti-missile defense...the new reactors on the Ford class are that powerful that they will have the electrical power to make it happen I believe.

[ponder life]

I didn't think we would agree.

Interesting about the directed energy weapon for CIWS. I hadn't heard about that on a ship. I am only familar with the Boeing 747 chemical laser.

It must still require alot of energy as you have said it will be used on the FORD class carriers. I'm assuming the reactors will be much more powerful than the Nimitz class carriers, though that information (output of the reactors), I'm sure, is classified.

[Jeff Head]

The new A1B reactors will produce about 300% the power of the current A4W reactors on the Nimitz class. Nothing classified about those numbers. On a number of issues, the US is very open about most of these things, wants to be sure potential adversaries see the futility.

Sort of like what happened with Russia...catch us if you can.

The High-Energy Liquid Laser Area Defense System (Hellads), is a US Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency program set to produce refridgerator sized 150 Kilowatt lasers perhaps as early as 2013.

[ponder life]

I looked a little more online and I did find that the twin A1B's will be about 600 MW vs about 200 MW on the Nimitz. Almost as much as a single commercial reactor. Thanks for the info, i.e., the 150 KW. At 150 KW, it would only draw 2 1/2 % from the twin A1B's during full power vs 7-8% for the twin A4W.

When I look at the historical launch schedule for the Nimitz class carriers, it appears one have been launched and commisioned about every 4 years since the first one. The Ford class is expected to come on line every 5 years, there abouts, and do a one for one replacement starting with the Enterprise.

I have to say, I do find it difficult to phantom that the US will be able to do a one for one replacement every 5 years given the fiscal problems that are occuring and the huge national debt. There are currently only 3 Ford carriers scheduled to be built. I assume that it'll depend on the commitment of future military budgets.