Here’s how I see it, Palin can win the conservative base but she loses a lot of independents and other middle of the raod types that might otherwise be ours. Romney, on the other hand, loses a good portion of the conservative base but hangs on to the aforemtnioned middle of the road types. The end result for either scenario is a likely Obama win imo. Obama is not as vulnerable as we want to believe. The Senate may be however.
Obama’s bleeding out indies left and right. The winner of the Republican primary will probably be the winner of the 2012 election. This is due to the fact that most sitting presidents with a horrible economy go on to lose the election. It happened with Reagan, it will happen with Palin, people are not going to want $5.00 a gallon gas or a 10% unemployment rate. If the economy is still in a rut Obama will lose to the GOP.
If unemployment is double digits,gasoline is 5 bucks a gallon and food prices are through the roof because of ridiculous cap-n-trade policy, all very likely in 2012, Palin will get the middle of the road independents just like Reagan in 1980.
Dole+McCain= Romney
Is Obama a Carter one-termer, or another Clinton? Probably the latter. The Republican House is going to instill some confidence in the economy and things will be looking up by mid-2012. Obama could ride back in on the strong economy, just as Clinton did in ‘96.
If Palin is as smart as I think she is, she may sit out 2012 and wait for 2016. She will have lots of “gravitas” by then and the Republican nominee will be a shoe-in after eight years of the Zero.
You’ve got it wrong. Onada is vulnerable. The only question is which conservative candidate is going for his jugular? And that candidate is already known: Gov. Palin. In the absense of a political office she’s singlehandedly attacked and exposed The Marxist Usurper on everthing from the ecomony, taxes, healthcare and abortion—to name a few. I’ve heard nothing cfedible from the several other “conservative” pretenders out there.
But perhaps, I’m missing something. Maybe you can fix my ignorence by citing one thing each any of Palin’s competitors have said that has pricked Onada in any meaningful way. I wait with baited breath.
I wish Sarah had gone after chairing the RNC. From there she could influence a lot more people.