Posted on 12/12/2010 8:09:57 PM PST by jhpigott
South Korean, U.S. and Japanese foreign ministry officials talked about the possibility that the North Korean regime has lost control and gone off the rails since the artillery attack on Yeonpyeong Island, it emerged Friday. On Thursday, President Lee Myung-bak said North Koreans are now much aware of the outside world. "I feel reunification is now not far off."
A senior government official said, "Having watched the North launch a series of provocations such as the torpedo attack on the Navy corvette Cheonan, its uranium enrichment program and the shelling of Yeonpyeong Island, officials in Seoul, Washington and Tokyo recently discussed the need to look at the North's latest movements from a completely new viewpoint."
He said some officials saw the Yeonpyeong attack as merely another round in a familiar pattern of provocations, "but others said that it shows that the situation on the Korean Peninsula has entered a new phase." This may mean the regime "has lost control internally," he added.
A North Korean source said, "There are some unusual signs now that it's difficult for Kim Jong-il to make all the decisions alone as before." He speculated that the process of transferring power to Kim Jong-un is going badly.
(Excerpt) Read more at english.chosun.com ...
A collapsing DPRK may very well end up reunifying the peninsula - - but probably not peaceably.
ping
South Korea can keep China neutral I think, by promising not to militarize the northern part of the country at all and to boot out the US within a few years of reunification.
I’m sure the 5 Man Electrical Band thanks you for the plug.
As an American, I'd like to bring our people home and leave Korea to the Koreans. Conversely, I also like having the bases and hardware near China.
North Korea is, and has been, in a downward spiral for a long time. The only real questions left are how far it will go before something breaks, and when (not if) it breaks up, will it go peacefully or not. Personally, my opinion is it will continue downward for another 3 to 5 years, and when it goes, it will not be peaceful.
I wish that you thank them on my behalf then. :)
SK may not be able to absorb NK but they could keep it as a “puppet state” as Tigerlikesrooster says, and raise the standard of living enough for them to be able to merge. It could take a decade, but at least North Koreans wouldn’t be STARVING in the meantime.
Castro was about to die a couple years ago. Iran’s government was about to be overthrown. Hugo Chavez actually was overthrown for a couple of days and then regained power. The world will end in 2011 or 2012, depending on who you believe. I would put “North Korea is on the brink of collapse” along with these other headlines.
“I feel reunification is now not far off.”
Asian culture and history has a different perspective on the passage of time than we do.
I’m reminded of a passge from George HW Bush’s book “Looking Forward”. In this book, he describes a meeting that he and Henry Kissinger had with Mao Tse-Tung.
Mao and Kissinger were talking about the rift between the PRC and Taiwan. Mao told Kissinger that the issue would be settled in time, probably a hundred years or so. Bush said that Mao’s comment was more or less saying “We’ve been around for a very long time and we can be patient”.
I wonder if the comment made by South Korea’s PM could be interpreted in the same manner?
You may be right. What are the parallels with say, the German reunification? I honestly don’t know if East Germany was in as dire straights as NK is. SK has a powerful economy, but rebuilding a trashed NK will take a long time as you say. Covering the basics, no problem. Equalizing across the peninsula? Yeah, long-term project.
You’re Absolutely Right.
I’ve often wondered if the N. Korean regime is ON crack, which would make them “cracking” I reckon...
On Thursday, President Lee Myung-bak said North Koreans are now much aware of the outside world.
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
It may sound a bit crazy, but isn’t there a way to airdrop (or by some other means) like a million iPods, then beam in Internet access - even if it was large WiFi’s on the border?
Something to give them internet access, where they could learn the truth of their situation.
The first sign as to any cracks will be how susceptible, on a 1-to-10 scale, with 5 as the norm, that the DPRK Foreign Ministry diplomats are that are currently overseas, to be “befriended” for a price—or maybe even without a price. It is easy access, one need not enter the prohibitively difficult DPRK territory itself, and, “every man has his price” as they say particularly when they know the “jig is up” and it is time to deal themselves a good deal, get out while the gettin’s good. As elite KWP members, oath to Kim Jong Un or no oath, one assumes they will be well-enough connected to the Kim regime, even if loyal in the here and now, to know if things are collapsing there or not. Those that want to deal, will, well, deal. I think this is one soft underbelly that should well be probed in Vienna, Paris, Phnom Penh, even in New York City (UN mission) and other places. A trickle could become a stream if conditions were just right. Calling all diplomats back to DPRK if things got way out of control would be another sign; if they just up and vacated all diplomatic posts overseas.
I found this link interesting. A little off-topic:
http://english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2009/06/24/2009062400273.html
The people in NK are starving. The young girl at the beginning of this video was later found dead after she starved. She was destitute after the deaths of her father and mother.
It’s stuck in my head for the last few days.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newsvideo/8113817/Inside-North-Korea-exclusive-footage.html
Not gonna happen. China will never give up territory they've bled for.
They'll find another puppet and attach tighter strings.
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