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Deliberate or Accidental, a New Korean War Would be Devastating
Politics Daily ^ | 11/23/2010 | David Wood

Posted on 11/23/2010 7:29:21 PM PST by sukhoi-30mki

Deliberate or Accidental, a New Korean War Would be Devastating

The soaring modern glass towers of downtown Seoul are magnificent -- and to a North Korean artillery officer squinting through his sights from just 32 miles away, a delicious set of targets. The glistening South Korean capital is a city of glass, almost literally in the shadow of some 500 long-range heavy artillery guns from which North Korea can fire half a million artillery shells an hour, for several hours.

A war on the Korean peninsula could explode almost without warning, senior U.S. military officers say. North Korea's immediate, if suicidal, intent in such a conflict: to demolish Seoul in a blizzard of glass shards and cause tens of thousands of casualties, before U.S. and South Korea forces could react.

That is why millions of people living in Seoul regularly practice scrambling into bomb shelters in subway stations -- and why any disruption in "normal'' relations with the reclusive and unpredictable regime to the north quickly gets the world's attention: a surprise attack from the North, whether deliberate or a miscalculation, would be bloody and costly, and likely would trigger all-out war.

Within hours of North Korea's apparently unprovoked artillery attack on South Korean territory and the South's retaliatory artillery barrage, U.S. officials, diplomats and policy analysts were assuring each other that this was only a "provocation'' by the North. The Obama administration took a rhetorical firm but low-key line on Tuesday, with Pentagon Press Secretary Geoff Morrell saying that the North Korean attack was "not, frankly, out of pattern for the North lately."

(Excerpt) Read more at politicsdaily.com ...


TOPICS: Foreign Affairs; Japan; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: accidental; china; deliberate; devastating; japan; korea; korean; new; northkorea; southkorea; war
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To: Redmen4ever

Whatever you said about need for rogue states would be true for a representative democracy, but not for the PRC. North Korea, Pakistan and Iran have kept potential Chinese rivals bleeding for decades and will continue to do so. The last thing China wants is for them to be taken out of the scene. ‘Peace and Stability’ are relative terms. If stability means a weakened India or Japan, that is why China continues to support Pakistan and North Korea.

You are right-China doesn’t want to destroy trade with South Korea. Which is why the North fires off a few rounds and then steps back. Do you seriously think anyone-including the US, China and South Korea want reunification?? Even a completely peaceful reunification will hit the South Korean economy hard given North Korea’s current shape. Would any sane country want to add 23+ million dirt poor people to their population. So who will foot the bill??? Reunification in the current term is a fantasy.

About the military factor. Again as you pointed out, North Korea’s conventional forces are obsolete. The only problem is that they know it better than anyone else. If they tried to invest in rearming themselves conventional, they would have spent themselves into oblivion. Which is why they have invested in asymmetric capabilites. Artillery, heavy anti-aircraft capability, special forces (the world’s largest number), cyber warfare, NBC weapons. So again, do you think the South Koreans would want to risk even a limited war which could potentially undermine years of economic development. As I’ve said before, the only way South Korea can come out with relatively little damage is if the US nukes North Korea, which probably wont happen. Or if there is a coup in Pyongyang.


141 posted on 11/24/2010 6:59:09 AM PST by sukhoi-30mki
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To: tanknetter

There is a difference...those N Korean sleeper cells are motivated by their countries ambtions and corrupt leadership. If that is liquidated, so is the motivation, or most of it.


142 posted on 11/24/2010 7:00:39 AM PST by fabian (" And a new day will dawn for those who stand long, and the forests will echo in laughter")
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To: Redmen4ever

Hong Kong shows that China knows how to play for time. Hong Kong is probably a little more democratic than Iran or maybe Venezuela. That’s about it.

http://gohongkong.about.com/od/historyandcultureofhk/f/hongkongdemoc.htm


143 posted on 11/24/2010 7:03:00 AM PST by sukhoi-30mki
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To: Pining_4_TX
Actually it is not a war at all. Congress has been shirking its duty to debate the issue seriously and declare war since WWII. It is so easy for politicians to send other people’s children to die.

At the risk of sounding like an Isolationist... that is the difference between the US in 1940 and post-1945... we went from being a Constitutional-Republic to an imperial power (a commercial-imperial power). Empires must fight small brushfire wars as the price of maintaining their position.

Look it how many wars Britain fought around the Globe between 1776 and 1914. Many times their troops got their clocks cleaned in Round One, before they got their act together for Payback. Sounds familiar, right?

If Congress debated every Banana-War the Public would quickly learn the scam. Mostly the everyday voter likes the lifestyle that comes from being top-dog. Those days are coming to an end, so we need to decide if we are returning to the Constitutional-Repblic or something else...

144 posted on 11/24/2010 7:37:37 AM PST by Tallguy (Received a fine from the NFL for a helmet-to-helmet hit.)
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To: Grumplestiltskin

At this time we have neither the will nor the way for that. We are focused not on eliminating the threat, but on trying to impose our way of life on other cultures.

Part of the problem is that the US is isolated from a lot of other cultures in the world, and we expect them to react like us. They won’t.

The way to deal with the culture of Islamic fundamentalism is to be forceful and strong.

We assume they give a hoot about dying—because we do. They don’t. They have a much different concept of “winning.” They win if they live until tomorrow. They win by outlasting and survival.

Again, the “then what” exercise does not end well. If I were an investing guy, all of the “then what” equations end up with Russia running the world’s oil.

That cannot be good for us. Those folks can carry a grudge.


145 posted on 11/24/2010 7:49:32 AM PST by Vermont Lt (Don't taze my junk bro.)
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To: NVDave
.

ANALYSIS:

(North Korea's 500 guns - 50 guns destroyed by airstrikes and counter battery fire in HOUR-ONE) x ( 10 rounds per hour ) equals 4,500 rounds (incinderary, high explosive, nerve gas) striking Seoul in Hour One ...

Dittos for approximately 100 of 800 North Korean Ballistic Missiles (short-range) hitting Seoul in Hour-One ...

At Hour-One-Plus ... Seoul looks like Dresden and Nagasaki ... a nightmare fire-storm (visible from space) that burns for WEEKS ... given that NO ONE will fight the fires because they're either already dead ... or fearful of the radioactive "dirty bombs" conveniently included in the North Korean artillery-ballistic missile firestorm mix ...

Seoul civilian casaulties at Hour-One-Plus ... 250,000 immediate dead ... 450,000 dead within the next week ...

Another 400 North Korean Ballistic Missiles are (immediatedly) targeted towards US-South Korean air-bases ... and Military Supply Depots ... civilian airports ... strtegic bridges ... which are ALL TOTALLY utterly destroyed ...


The remaining 300 North Korean Ballistic Missiles are (immediately) targeted towards Japan and Guam ... priorities being cities, airbases, civiliian airports, port facilities ...


As effective as they are ... there aren't enough Patriot-3s to take-out the North Korean ballistic missiles ...


The ONLY way to prevent this Genocide is to have U.S. Boomer Subs to launch a nuclear strike on North Korea ... with a "trigger-set" being:

A) 10 Artillery rounds fired in Seoul
B) "Two" (2.0000) simealtaneous North Korean Ballistic Missile launches headed towards South Korean or Japan ...
C) within a two minute time frame


U.S. military casualties even if we sucessfuly STOP a North Korean attack (even under the BEST circumstances) are 6,500 KIA and another 15,000 captured-wounded ... in the FIRST day ... of the total 28,000 U.S. military forces stationed in South Korea ...


Who's the BIG Winner ?

Red China's electronic and manufacturing giants ... now that Hyundai Heavy Industries (et al) ... and their engineers / managers / families ... have been EXTERMINATED ...

North Korean's starving civilians and (eventually) defeated-military are left by ALL to die of disease and starvation and frigid-cold ... by a World Economic system that is COMPLETELY BROKE and exhausted ...



.
146 posted on 11/24/2010 10:41:33 AM PST by Patton@Bastogne (YLA ... The most Beautiful Woman on The Lord's earth ... My 2010 Thanksgiving Day wish and prayer ..)
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To: Patton@Bastogne

bttt


147 posted on 11/24/2010 10:43:50 AM PST by ConservativeMan55
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To: sukhoi-30mki
500 long-range heavy artillery guns from which North Korea can fire half a million artillery shells an hour, for several hours.

Oh bullsh#t. A rate of fire of 1000 rounds per hour per gun? really? Don't any "journalists" bother to to do the least little bit of fact checking? And all 500 tubes would have to be right on the treaty line to even reach Seoul as it's right at the maximum range of the biggest guns they have. Can they give the South a very bloody nose? Sure. And then the South would stomp the 1950 style Soviet Norks into a paste. Remember Saddam and his "Fourth largest army in the world"? Same thing.
148 posted on 11/24/2010 10:50:41 AM PST by Kozak ("It's not an Election it's a Restraining Order" .....PJ O'Rourke)
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To: Kozak

If South Korea could stomp over the North, they would’nt have called for UNSC sessions after their warship was sunk and after repeated provocations over the past 15 years.

A country which has an arsenal of ballistic missiles, NBC weapons, cyber warfare and supposed EMP capabilities is not 1950 style. If Saddam thought them something, it is that there is no point in trying to match the US or its allies in conventional capabilities. Sure the South and US will win any war eventually, but are they willing to pay the price??? They have shown little inclination towards that.


149 posted on 11/24/2010 11:06:29 AM PST by sukhoi-30mki
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To: sukhoi-30mki

I’ve come to realize that the South is incapable of mounting an actual harsh retaliation, mostly due to their aversion to killing their own distant kin who are now brainwashed and waving little red books, but kin nonetheless. This is also why when we’re on the cusp of being able to starve the Norks into submission, the ROK howls and relents or even ships food “under the table” to the Norks.


150 posted on 11/24/2010 11:13:56 AM PST by NVDave
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To: NVDave

That’s not entirely true. The South has responded decisively to naval violations in the past and would probably lash out if it is pushed. Mushy sentiments aside, South Korea fears the impact of conflict on its economy. It’s the same reason nobody wants to do anything about Iran or Pakistan.


151 posted on 11/24/2010 11:17:08 AM PST by sukhoi-30mki
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To: sukhoi-30mki

Response to naval engagements is one thing. They’re responding to point targets, who are entirely military.

If we’re talking counter-battery fire, there will certainly be civilian deaths and destruction. That’s where the ROK would hesitate.

The Norks, if they started a real “shock and awe” bombardment of Seoul would need a serious curb-stomp and that’s going to mean serious civilian deaths north of the DMZ. The ROK obviously fears the effects on their economy - that’s absolutely true. But when they could have starved the Norks to the table, they refused to do so. When they could have let the Norks freeze to death (or make it China’s problem), the ROK flinched.

Moral of the story: When your enemy is starving and freezing to death, you should *let* them starve and freeze.


152 posted on 11/24/2010 11:25:56 AM PST by NVDave
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To: sukhoi-30mki

The South realizes that in an all out war they have far more to lose then the retarded Norks. They can win, it will just set them back a decade or so. Winning would be it’s own punishment, as they would have an East German problem on steroids. Doesn’t mean they can’t win which was my point.
There is no way the North sweeps down and conquers the South. Ain’t happening.


153 posted on 11/25/2010 6:53:06 AM PST by Kozak ("It's not an Election it's a Restraining Order" .....PJ O'Rourke)
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To: Kozak

Which is precisely why all the North Koreans keep doing is lob a few shells. The ‘North Korean’ invasion theory exists only in internet forums-the regime knows that would be suicide.


154 posted on 11/25/2010 7:20:49 AM PST by sukhoi-30mki
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To: sukhoi-30mki

Yeah, it’s “give me a dollar or I might break a few windows”...


155 posted on 11/25/2010 8:50:00 AM PST by Kozak ("It's not an Election it's a Restraining Order" .....PJ O'Rourke)
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To: sukhoi-30mki

On the other hand it wouldn’t be the first time a war was started based on a miscalculation....


156 posted on 11/26/2010 5:51:04 AM PST by Kozak ("It's not an Election it's a Restraining Order" .....PJ O'Rourke)
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To: Tallguy

Yes, absolutely. Empires also rot from within by allowing the “riff-raff” in the countries they occupy to come into the home country. This also sounds familiar.


157 posted on 12/01/2010 9:55:46 PM PST by Pining_4_TX
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