The fact is that you're not nearly as familiar with watching Vandenberg launches as you think you are. You can see them from San Diego -- about 250 miles south-east, 150 miles EAST -- and you actually with a straight face say that's as good as seeing them from Santa Monica, which is more like 125 miles southeast (and about 100 miles east) of Vandenberg? I don't know who you insult more -- your readers, or yourself.
You're saying and expecting to be considered credible!!! -- that one can see a launch just as well with binoculars, and therefore have strong fundamental experience with which to compare viewing airliners at the same range casting contrails, at 250 miles as one can at 160 miles?
160 miles is the distance from Huntington Beach, where I watched both missile launches and airliners with special attention (as opposed to more or less taking them for granted when living much closer to VAFB) -- never lived in Santa Monica. And you know what? From HB, I NEVER DID see the airliners casting contrails from 250 miles distant that I know of, because they're too far off to see in such detail, and I expect that one couldn't tell through detail whether the vehicle casting a trail was a missile or a plane. As YOU know perfectly well, however, the time spent watching the phenomenon will tell you with solid certainty whether the phenomenon is a condensation trail or a missile plume. That's why using still shots to differentiate between airplane contrails and missile plumes are time wasters except in proving the angle/direction of the trail in relation to the sun.
I've not had remotely as much experience in private planes above L.A. as you, but I have had A LOT more experience living on the L.A. area coast compared to your own experiences, and also I lived within 19 to 30 or so miles of VAFB for about five years, and from 30 or so to 60 or so miles of VAFB for DECADES, dear ....
Yes, you DO need to be there. But you haven't, and you don't know what you don't know because of that simple fact.
Good heavens. Pull your "I know a missile when I see it!" baloney on somebody else. You don't fool me.
If you don't KNOW that ... well, you DO know that. So you're either lying deliberately to yourself, or to readers.
Brian Webb runs a website that follows Vandenberg launches.
I have subscribed to his launch email alerts for many years.
I think it is safe to say he is an expert on observing them.
So discredit me all you like.
You will have to discredit Brian Webb as well.....
As of this morning, I would like to end any further discussion of the mystery “launch” reported on the evening of November 8th. I have determined that what was seen that evening is not a mystery and it was not a launch.
Also, please do not send me any further e-mails on this subject.
There has been speculation on the Internet that the event was a missile launch from a Chinese submarine.
If a foreign power covertly entered the waters adjacent to the U.S. mainland and launched a missile, it wouldn’t necessarily be an act of war, but it would be a major provocation. A provocation of that type could actually backfire by increasing U.S. fears over Chinese naval power in the Pacific. That could lead to a build up of the U.S. Navy’s anti-submarine warfare capability.
During the Cold War, the U.S. Navy was able to locate, track, and if necessary, kill Soviet ballistic missile submarines at sea. As a matter of fact, U.S. attack submarines (subs designed to hunt and kill other subs) reportedly would lurk submerged and meet up with Soviet subs shortly after they left port and follow the Soviet subs undetected for extended periods of time. Furthermore, land-based and carrier-based U.S. Navy anti-submarine warfare aircraft such as the P-3 and S-3 could also detect, track, and kill Soviet submarines.
It is reasonable to assume that the U.S. Navy has at least a partial ability track the movements of Chinese submarines. Furthermore, U.S. early warning satellites and radars (such as PAVE PAWS radar at Beale AFB in northern California) provide the U.S. military with the ability to immediately detect, pinpoint, and track missile launches at sea. The Navy probably also still has a formidable anti-submarine warfare capability that would allow it to quickly locate and kill hostile submarines.
Therefore, I think the assertion that the event of last week was a Chinese weapons test to be highly unlikely.
Again, please do not send me any further e-mails about the supposed mystery launch.
Brian Webb
Again, the contrail science web page has a great video showing all the camera angles lining up perfectly with the UPS jet as source.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LJwQNdadIv4
He provides all sources for his data.
You can check it yourself.
Please show me where the data is in error?