Please note that there is not a single demographic category that has shifted toward the Democrats. If you compare a similar generic from 2008 to the 2010 midterm election, the shifts toward Republican would be much, much more drastic.
| Changes in the Midterm Landscape: November 2006 to October 2010 |
||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov. 1-4, 2006 | Oct. 13-18, 2010 | |||||
| Vote Rep | Vote Dem | Adv | Vote Rep | Vote Dem | Adv | |
| % | % | % | % | |||
| All likely voters | 43 | 47 | D+4 | 50 | 40 | R+10 |
| Men | 45 | 46 | D+1 | 52 | 37 | R+15 |
| Women | 41 | 48 | D+7 | 49 | 43 | R+6 |
| 18-49 | 44 | 48 | D+4 | 50 | 40 | R+10 |
| 50-64 | 44 | 45 | D+1 | 50 | 41 | R+9 |
| 65+ | 42 | 48 | D+6 | 52 | 38 | R+14 |
| Ethnicity | ||||||
| White, non-Hisp. | 49 | 42 | R+7 | 56 | 34 | R+22 |
| Black, non-Hisp. | 07 | 81 | D+74 | 10 | 83 | D+73 |
| White men | 52 | 41 | R+11 | 56 | 33 | R+23 |
| White women | 47 | 43 | R+4 | 55 | 35 | R+20 |
| Education | ||||||
| College grad+ | 43 | 49 | D+6 | 50 | 43 | R+7 |
| Some college | 43 | 45 | D+2 | 53 | 35 | R+18 |
| HS or less | 44 | 46 | D+2 | 49 | 41 | R+8 |
| Family income | ||||||
| $75,000 or more | 50 | 43 | R+7 | 54 | 36 | R+18 |
| $30,000-$74,999 | 49 | 44 | R+5 | 52 | 40 | R+12 |
| Less than $30,000 | 32 | 62 | D+30 | 39 | 55 | D+16 |
| Republican | 92 | 04 | R+88 | 95 | 01 | R+94 |
| Democrat | 02 | 94 | D+92 | 08 | 88 | D+80 |
| Independent | 35 | 42 | D+7 | 49 | 30 | R+19 |
| Religious Affiliation | ||||||
| Protestant | 50 | 41 | R+9 | 56 | 35 | R+21 |
| White evangelical | 68 | 24 | R+44 | 75 | 16 | R+59 |
| White mainline | 45 | 45 | Even | 58 | 32 | R+26 |
| Catholic | 43 | 48 | D+5 | 52 | 40 | R+12 |
| White Catholic | 48 | 43 | R+5 | 53 | 37 | R+16 |
| Unaffiliated | 20 | 71 | D+51 | 37 | 52 | D+15 |
| Region | ||||||
| Northeast | 40 | 49 | D+9 | 44 | 45 | D+1 |
| Midwest | 40 | 51 | D+11 | 53 | 37 | R+16 |
| South | 48 | 42 | R+6 | 55 | 37 | R+18 |
| West | 44 | 47 | D+3 | 45 | 43 | R+2 |
PEW RESEARCH CENTER Oct. 13-18, 2010. Q10/10a. Based on likely voters. Likely voter estimates for 2010 based on a seven-question turnout scale.
Christine O’Donnell, Senate, 2008: 140,584 votes
Add $4 million and lots more exposure of her.
Christine O’Donnell, Senate, 2010: 123,025 votes
I can tell I'm dealing with an intellect.
All your statistics are generic. Yes, it makes it probable that a Republican can win.
That's not the issue. The issue is whether Palin, specifically, can win.
Because the risks of a second Obama Administration is so frightening, it is irresponsible to nominate someone and play Russian Roulette with the choice. It is why I don't have a preferance except that the person comes into the race with a favorable probability of sending Obama back to community organizing.
Today the odds are strongly against Palin being able to win. Too many large States with too many Electoral votes seem well beyond her reach.
Now you can respond again with calling me a commie and all the rest and the readers can judge whether they want to take the country into a second Obama term following delusional zealots like you.