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“O.K. SeattleBruce, give me your opinion here. Let’s say that they count 97% of the 98,000 write-in votes for Lisa Murkowski. That is a total of 95,000 votes. Joe already has 89,000 votes; right? So, he would only need a 6,000 vote differential margin out of the Absentee Ballots being left to be counted, in order to win; right?”

Joe has 87,517 currently, so would need about 7500 differential among the absentees in your scenario. Joe’s camp is also suggesting they will gain 1,000 votes today (and who knows how many all week.) If there truly are 40,000 abs. votes out there to count - they surely won’t count them all today, based on the pace they’ve been going at all week.

I’ll be happy to see deport’s links to the 22,000 absentees outstanding (before this Politico article, I’d only be operating under the understanding that there were about 8,500 absentees outstanding - as is the quote here: http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/senate-races/129129-mondays-vote-count-in-alaska-key-for-miller)

So clarifications on the number of outstanding, not counted absentees and military votes, is HUGE to where we stand.

Otherwice, imho, Joe has to win at least 75% of his challenged votes, and not have murky win any of her challenges. So much slimmer chance in that last scenario.