Japan Resists The Growing Russian Intrusion

Russian aircraft are approaching, and entering, Japanese air space more frequently. Such intrusions are up 80 percent this year. So far this year, Japanese fighters have scrambled 186 times to deal with these alerts. That's a 30 percent increase from last year. In contrast, fighters were dispatched only 24 times to deal with Chinese aircraft and four times for Taiwanese aircraft. Nearly all of these intrusions were by maritime reconnaissance or electronic eavesdropping aircraft. These intrusions have been increasing over the last three years. Early on, the Japanese launched many aircraft for each intrusion. For example, in 2008, a Russian Tu-95 entered Japanese airspace, near an uninhabited island about 600 kilometers south of Tokyo. Although the Russian aircraft was in Japanese airspace for only about three minutes, the Japanese launched 22 aircraft to intercept. This force included two AWACs aircraft and twenty fighters. It had been two years since a Russian aircraft entered Japanese airspace without permission, and that explained the massive response. But as the intrusions increased, the number of interceptors sent out declined. One explanation for all the Russian activity has been Japanese diplomats pressuring the Russians to return the Kurile islands (off northern Japan). This has caused a lot of tension, and the Russians have responded with more aerial activity. This sort of thing also goes over well inside Russia.

Exactly Sushiman. Also, these incidents are common place and have occured for decades. The only reason there are more now as compared to a couple years past is because the Russians coffers are flowing again with money. They have been increasing every year since 2000 (Obama is a bucker, but this has nothing to do with him and all to do with Russia having more money now to buy new equipment, do more training, and step up flights that double as training + defense probes). The FReepers saying the Japanese should 'accidentally' shoot one down forget that 'accidentally launched missiles' can fly both ways. So, Japan should shoot down one of the planes, yet the US (which also is on the receiving end of such tactics, including one where a Bear overflew a US carrier with its Freaking bomb bay open!!! While 'incursions' have been normal since the mid days of the cold war, the bomb bay stunt was 'rude'). However, going back to Japan, an accidental shooting would lead to subs accidentally laying mines on Japanese shipping lanes, or other accidental stuff. Then Japan may then decide to do more 'fat finger ooopsies' and Russia will do more 'duhs' and before you know it there is real trouble begging to be let free. Which is why outside internet forums most leaders seldom make silly moves against near-peer adversaries. There is a reason, for instance, since WW2 the US has never fought against a near-peer (the closest is via proxy wars where the Chinese in the Korean example, or the Sovs in Nam, were involved). In all other cases the recipients of 'shock and awe' are Grenada, Libya, Panama, Guam, Afghanistan, NE (tribal areas) of Pakistan (and even that is with the permission of the Pakistani govt), Iraq, Bosnia, Kosovo, Somalia, etc.

So, comments of Japan shooting down Russian military aircraft for flying next to Japanese territory is next to impossible. Russia does far worse next to North American airspace.

Near-peers always strive to not do anything (directly) that may cause one or the other to also have to do things (directly). If anything has to be done it is via proxy, or nothing is done. For instance, North Korea could sink a South Korean warship right now, and because the two nations are near-peer (though the South is much stronger) nothing would happen.

Wait a minute, Pyongyang did sink a SK warship, and Seoul did nada.

Japan would never shoot down a Russian military aircraft (unless the circumstances were truly exceptional). Even if they watch a copy of Top Gun on their BluRay.

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