Posted on 11/03/2010 6:12:42 PM PDT by RobFromGa
2012 Senate Forecasts—The First Look
Dateline: Day after election 2010
By: RobFromGa
Since the 2010 Senate races are now almost all decided (only WA and AK remain), it is time to look forward to the 2012 Senate Races where the Dems are going to have a tough slate to defend.
The Dems need to defend 21 seats to only 10 for the GOP (there are two independents as well-- Lieberman and Sanders who both caucus with the Dems so the Dem caucus is actually defending 23 to only 10 for the GOP)
Some history about the 2006 Midterms for those of you who may have blocked this from your memory…
Midterms 2006 was a strong cycle for the Dems and everything fell into place for them on election day where they won almost every close Senate race. These seats won in 2006 will have to be defended in 2012 in a completely different political climate*:
1) 2006 was a Midterm so no Presidential “coat-tails” came into play.
2) Bush was very unpopular in 2006 and Iraq War fatigue was peaking.
3) GOP didn’t field strong candidates in some races.
4) Mainstream media had more power than they have now.
*The 2012 political climate is, of course, impossible to predict. Two years is an eternity-just ask Obama or Nancy Pelosi how things can change.
Since 2012 is a Presidential election year, the top-of-the ticket nominees will have quite a bit of impact on many Senate races and turnout. It is impossible to predict the future this far in advance, but I am assuming that the American electorate will still be interested in economic growth policies that will lead to jobs, and not so interested in increasing the size and scope of the Federal government.
The 21 Dem seats in play in 2012 (alpha by state) :
D1) Feinstein-California. Probably safe. By their 2010 votes, CA has shown they are happy with the current situation. Maybe Feinstein will retire and the GOP would have a better chance against an open seat.
D2) Carper-Delaware. Safe, Delaware is likely a lost cause for a real GOP candidate, and we don't need a RINO...
D3**) Nelson-Florida. Very vulnerable. GOP should get a pickup here with a good candidate.
D4) Akaka-Hawaii. Safe. He's getting pretty old and will be 88 in 2012. Perhaps he will retire but Dems should be able to hold an open seat. Unless retired Gov. Lingle decides to run which would make this race competitive.
D5*) Cardin-Maryland. Slightly vulnerable. It's a blue state but maybe could be won with the right candidate (Steele or Ehrlich?)
D6**) Stabenow-Michigan. Very vulnerable. Put up a good candidate and she is gone. Great pickup opportunity.
D7*) Klobuchar-Minnesota. Slightly vulnerable against the right candidate. Could be Coleman's seat if he wants to work for it.
D8**) McCaskill-Missouri. Very vulnerable. She beat Talent by a nose in 2006 and she will lose to a qualified candidate in 2012. Word is Talent may want a rematch.
D9**) Tester-Montana. Very vulnerable. He barely won in 2006 and he will face a strong challenger in a Red State.
D10**) Nelson-Nebraska. Very vunerable, almost certain GOP pickup.
D11*) Menendez-New Jersey. Slightly vulnerable. Chris Christie has provided a model for victory. we need a solid candidate. (Kean lost in a squeaker last time). With a good candidate this could become Very vulnerable in a hurry.
D12) Bingaman-New Mexico. Probably safe. He's been in since 1982 so perhaps he'll look at retirement. The GOP has a better chance in an open seat.
D13) Gillibrand- New York. Probably safe, the GOP can't seem to do anything right in New York.
D14*) Conrad-North Dakota. Slightly vulnerable. He supported Obamacare which is universally hated in that red state. GOP needs a strong small government candidate though.
D15**) Brown-Ohio. Very vulnerable. Very liberal senator in a state that is not very liberal.
D16**) Casey-Pennsylvania. Very vulnerable. Just hope we can find someone to beat Specter.
D17) Whitehouse-Rhode Island. Safe.
D18*) Webb-Virginia. Slighlty vulnerable. He barely won in an upset against the "macaca challenged" Allen in 2006 and GOP should field a strong candidate against him. He is a fairly moderate Dem and having to face reelection in 2012 should keep him from embracing Obama/Reid policies.
D19*) Cantwell-Washington. Slightly vulnerable. Will Rossi have the desire to try once again?
D20*) Manchin-West Virginia. Slightly vulnerable. 2010 was a special election so only buys Manchin 2 years as Senator. In 2012, Seat will be in play and Manchin will have to remain conservative and steer away from Obama-Reid policies to have a chance for a full term. He could be forced to legislate as he campaigned which will make him essentially an extra GOP Senator these next two years.
D21*) Kohl-Wisconsin. Slightly vulnerable. Who knows? Maybe what happened to Feingold will make him decide to retire...
The 2 Independent seats in play in 2012 :
I1) Lieberman-Conn. Likely safe for I or D candidate.
I2) Sanders-Vermont. Safe.
The 10 Republican seats in play in 2012 :
R1) Kyl-Arizona. Safe.
R2) Lugar-Indiana. Safe.
R3) Snowe-Maine. Likely Safe. Her biggest threat is a Tea Party primary challenger picking her off like Mike Castle in Delaware, which would almost certainly lose the seat to the Dems. She is one of the more liberal GOP Senators from a very blue state.
R4*) Brown-Massachusetts. Very vulnerable. Should face a strong challenge. Call it 50-50 at this point... I would prefer to see Romney run for this seat, instead of President.
R5) Wicker-Miss. Safe.
R6*) Ensign-Nevada. Slightly vulnerable. Will likely retire but GOP can hold the Open seat.
R7) Corker-Tennessee. Safe.
R8) Hutchinson-Texas. Safe. Hutchinson might retire for Governor run in 2014 but GOP can almost certainly hold the open seat.
R9) Hatch-Utah. Safe.
R10) Barasso-Wyoming. Safe.
So, in a nutshell…
The Dems are defending 21 seats and only 6 of them are what I would consider Safe (CA, DE, , NM, NY, RI).
There are also 7 Very vulnerable (FL, MI, MO, MT, NE, OH, and PA) and 8 Slightly vulnerable seats (MD, MN, NJ, ND, VA, WV, WA, and WI). So, the GOP should be possible to pick up 7-10 seats…
The two Independent seats (VT and CT) are likely to remain D or I and continue to caucus with the Dems.
On the GOP side, we are defending 10 seats and only 2 are vulnerable…
The “Kennedy seat” held by Scott Brown in Mass and the seat that is currently held by by Sen. Ensign in Nevada if he doesn’t retire. Just for sake of argument, let’s say we lose one of these two seats.
Assuming we end up in 2010 with 47 GOP Senators (including AK since Murkowski will caucus with GOP and assuming we lose WA)…
If we pick up 7-10 and lose 1 in 2012, this leaves the GOP with a 53-56 seats majority. To get to 60, GOP would need a net pickup of 13 seats (or 12 if Rossi prevails this time around in WA)… To gain the majority we just need net pickup of 3-4 depending on who is Vice President in 2013. This seems to be almost a sure thing.
And 2014 is another good cycle for the GOP…
3) GOP needs to build a better, more reliable turnout machine.
I am assuming that Specter will be running again probably as both a GOP and Dem candidate in this Senate race...
We need another high-quality PA candidate to win this one.
We need to back conservatives NOT RINOs in Blue States. If they don’t have the organization and money, they will fall short. Think Dino Rossi. That guy always finishes a close second!
I think Specter’s toast. The Rats hate him and I wouldn’t want to take the turncoat back.
If we find a solid conservative candidate, the Casey seat can be picked up with the right candidate.
It is my impression that Bingham in new Mexico is expected to retire.
Amen. The unions were sensational for the RATS in key races yesterday - Reid, Bennet, Quinn and Strickland, for starters.
This problem is not going away and is the #1 danger for 2012. Our new GOP governors in high-union states need to deploy every means to defund and decapitate these organizations. Suggestions welcome.
Add me to your ping, please!!
Mark Belling was speculating that, based on Rusty's unusual "concession" speech if Kohl decides to retire we might get the chance to beat Feingold all over again in 2012, as he thinks Rusty might try for Kohl's seat as long as he wouldn't have to challenge Kohl in a primary.
Could another dream candidate emerge for us? Will lightning strike twice in the same spot? We can only hope!
Whoever is recruited against Casey needs to be telegenic and have a ton of money to self-finance.
I live in PA so please allow me to rant about Casey.
This guy is such a freakin a-hole (I know, I know - preaching to the choir).
The mood here today is one of solid support for Toomey. People are genuinely happy that he won. I truly believe that if Corbett & our GOP state assembly can turn us around, 2012 will be another solid GOP year in PA. It is my hope that we can reform our state party & get some more tea party conservatives on state committee. Then, we can select, properly vet, and support a tea party constitutionally conservative candidate for US Senate. I am more optimistic about this than ever. Pittsburgh & Philly be damned. They are both black holes of progressivism
“”I am assuming that Specter will be running again probably as both a GOP and Dem candidate in this Senate race...””
He wouldn’t!!! Would he? Is being in Congress comparable to a drug addict? Hard to break the habit?? I can believe that but hard to believe he’d step back in but hey - when it comes to most politicians, everything they do or think is beyond comprehension.
Many people believe Feingold was telegraphing a run against Obama in 2012 - preempting Howard Dean.
Retirements (Bingaman, Akaka)
Ohio - Sherrod Brown vs Rep. Jim Jordan or -?
North Dakota - Conrad/retirement vs ?
Wisconsin - Kohl/retirement vs Paul Ryan
Missouri - McCaskill vs Talent?
Nebraska - Nelson vs Heineman
Florida - Bill Nelson vs ?
Michigan - Stabenow vs Land/Rogers/?
Montana - Tester vs Rehberg
Virginia - Webb vs Allen
ripping off SF carpenters union
SF airport contracts
Regent of Cal University system and self dealing the investment funds.
etc...
Feinstein has already stated that she will run again. I only see her gone if God intervenes. She’s getting up there in years, so who knows?
Pretty deep bench in Michigan. Rogers, Miller, Land, Bouchard, Hoekstra...
NY, CA, IL and maybe even WA are facing implosion. Obama has been bailing them out and backstopping them. I doubt the GOP House will allow it.
The idiots in NY, CA, WA, NV, OR and a few others - didn’t get it yesterday.
I hope you are right.
Yesterday was a bit of a sugar high except for NV, NY,CA and a few others. 2012 sadly looks a long way away and we still have the destructive muslim.
Claire McCaskill has been an Obama cheerleader from Day One. That said, please, please do not encourage Jim Talent to run against her. During his last campaign his main theme was his ability to reach across the aisle and work with Democrats.
She was beatable the last time she ran, but Jim Talent was a horrible candidate.
things will not be so easy in the presidential year, since the Obama coalition will be at the polls again.
MA seat is 99% gone, Brown’s election was once in a lifetime fluke. NV is very tough, we just got a reminder yday. By no means an easy hold, and will require a strong candidate (no replays of Angle or Miller, please).
We indeed have excellent chances in red MT, ND (just like yesterday, when Pomeroy was beaten), NE and purple OH, FL, MI, VA, WI. Getting 5 seats for net gain of 4 would be good result in 2012 and give us 51 seat (50 + Lisa).
Of course, if we start throwing away seats by primaring people like Snow or Lugar, this majority will never materialize.
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