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Political Math Favors GOP to Retake Senate in ‘12
Wall Street Journal ^ | November 3, 2010 | Brody Mullins

Posted on 11/03/2010 8:56:26 AM PDT by reaganaut1

If Republicans are pleased with their gains in Congress today, just wait until the next election when Republicans will be well positioned to take a majority in the Senate.

A total of 21 Democratic senators are be up for re-election in 2012 in what will be a politically difficult climate for many of them. In contrast, just 10 Republicans face reelection in 2012.

Many of the Democrats who face re-election won their first elections in the Democratic wave of 2006. Some of those senators will face an electorate that is much different than it was when they were first elected to office.

Take Pennsylvania. In 2006, Democratic Sen. Bob Casey pummeled then-Sen. Rick Santorum in a Democratic sweep that saw several new Democrats elected to Congress. How things have changed. On Tuesday, Pennsylvanians voted in a Republican governor, a Republican senator and five new Republican members of the House.

Freshman Democratic Sen. Jim Webb faces a similar problem from voters in Virginia who just dumped two Democratic House members for Republicans. Mr. Webb has also raised just a few thousands dollars for his re-election campaign, a sign that he’s not thinking seriously about running for another term.

Tuesday’s election results indicate that several other Democratic senators could face tough paths to reelection, including Sens. Bill Nelson of Florida, Claire McCaskill in Missouri, Jon Tester in Montana, Ben Nelson in Nebraska, Sherrod Brown in Ohio and even Herb Kohl of Wisconsin.

(Excerpt) Read more at blogs.wsj.com ...


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2010midterms; ussenate2012
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1 posted on 11/03/2010 8:56:28 AM PDT by reaganaut1
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To: reaganaut1

The Tea Party and conservatives need to celebrate, and get busy fielding candidates to beat RINOs and Demwits in the next one.


2 posted on 11/03/2010 8:59:11 AM PDT by pallis
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To: reaganaut1

Just the luck of the draw for when the Senate seats are up. If we had more midwestern seats up yesterday, majority would have been a no-brainer.


3 posted on 11/03/2010 9:00:40 AM PDT by Dan Nunn (Support the NRA!)
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To: pallis

Amen! YellowSnowe from Maine needs to be attacked as if she was the devil on earth. Yes, she’s up in 2012.


4 posted on 11/03/2010 9:01:17 AM PDT by GOPsterinMA ("My buns have no seeds." - Cleo McDowell)
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To: Dan Nunn

As I keep telling my friends who are upset about the senate today, this is just one battle, the war continues!


5 posted on 11/03/2010 9:02:15 AM PDT by tndarlin (If only the VRWC had ACORN, SOROS, SEIU, TIDES .....)
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To: reaganaut1

This is what a few have argued for a year. That is why +6 this cycle is huge. Now that people see they can do it, Rand Paul types will start gearing up for the next wave.

We can destroy this progressive elitist cancer in 2 cycles if we are efficient.


6 posted on 11/03/2010 9:03:22 AM PDT by Lazlo in PA ("Forces of Evil" member in good standing)
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To: reaganaut1

Scott Brown will be up in 2012, too. That could be tough, given last night’s results.


7 posted on 11/03/2010 9:04:31 AM PDT by MAexile (Bats left, votes right)
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To: GOPsterinMA

Redistricting will be a hugh factor in 2012.


8 posted on 11/03/2010 9:04:33 AM PDT by AGreatPer (Voting for the crazy conservative gave us Ronald Reagan....Ann Coulter)
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To: MAexile

A likely loss, but nice to have now.


9 posted on 11/03/2010 9:05:04 AM PDT by rwfromkansas ("Carve your name on hearts, not marble." - C.H. Spurgeon)
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To: reaganaut1

I agree. Morally and purist-wise, last night was disappointing on several fronts (e.g. Christine O’Donnell, Sharon Angle, Harry Reid, etc.); but not only did we get rid of MANY culture-of-death-addicts (e.g. Feingold, etc.), but there are enough “key liberal players” in key positions—coupled with righteous anger at the (*ahem*) “less than above-board” results (I think especially of Rove’s sabotage of Christine O’Donnell, the underhanded garbage with Joe Miller, etc.) that it’ll keep people from becoming too complacent. It’ll also help to disarm any nascent “counter-counter-revolution” that the libs might’ve been trying to build up in the wake of 2012. Disappointing, but bodes well for the future.


10 posted on 11/03/2010 9:06:18 AM PDT by paladinan (Rule #1: There is a God. Rule #2: It isn't you.)
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To: AGreatPer

Right. It would be nice if gerrymandering could result in at least one of the Maine CD’s going GOP.

There’s still some hope for Maine, just like NH.


11 posted on 11/03/2010 9:09:00 AM PDT by GOPsterinMA ("My buns have no seeds." - Cleo McDowell)
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To: rwfromkansas

The New Yorkers get another shot at Gillibrand. I hope they can do better than yesterday’s pitiful job! California needs to be sawed off so it can float away, or maybe have the Big One.


12 posted on 11/03/2010 9:10:29 AM PDT by Lucius Cornelius Sulla ('“Our own government has become our enemy' - Sheriff Paul Babeu)
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To: MAexile

He’s gone. I thought he was before last night, now I know he is after last night.

A Kennedy or Deval Patrick win the seat in 2012. Done deal.


13 posted on 11/03/2010 9:14:35 AM PDT by GOPsterinMA ("My buns have no seeds." - Cleo McDowell)
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To: AGreatPer

Redistricting has NO effect on the Senate, which are statewide offices.

Redistricting only affects House members.


14 posted on 11/03/2010 9:30:57 AM PDT by LowTaxesEqualsProsperity
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To: reaganaut1
I think Brody Mullins (the author of this article) read my posts on this very issue over the last 18 hours. LOL.

He and I even agree on the most vulnerable Democrats in 2012.

15 posted on 11/03/2010 9:36:17 AM PDT by Alberta's Child ("Let the Eastern bastards freeze in the dark.")
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To: LowTaxesEqualsProsperity

Redistricting only affects House members.


All the more reason that the upcoming redistricting will be a huge factor in the House elections in 2012.


16 posted on 11/03/2010 9:36:33 AM PDT by deport
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To: reaganaut1
Class 1 Senators who's term expires in Jan. 2013.

Democrats Republicans
Akaka, Daniel K. (D-HI)
Bingaman, Jeff (D-NM)
Brown, Sherrod (D-OH)
Cantwell, Maria (D-WA)
Cardin, Benjamin L. (D-MD)
Carper, Thomas R. (D-DE)
Casey, Robert P., Jr. (D-PA)
Conrad, Kent (D-ND)
Feinstein, Dianne (D-CA)
Gillibrand, Kirsten E. (D-NY)
Goodwin, Carte P. (D-WV)
Klobuchar, Amy (D-MN)
Kohl, Herb (D-WI)
McCaskill, Claire (D-MO)
Menendez, Robert (D-NJ)
Nelson, Ben (D-NE)
Nelson, Bill (D-FL)
Stabenow, Debbie (D-MI)
Tester, Jon (D-MT)
Webb, Jim (D-VA)
Whitehouse, Sheldon (D-RI)
Barrasso, John (R-WY)
Brown, Scott P. (R-MA)
Corker, Bob (R-TN)
Ensign, John (R-NV)
Hatch, Orrin G. (R-UT)
Hutchison, Kay Bailey (R-TX)
Kyl, Jon (R-AZ)
Lugar, Richard G. (R-IN)
Snowe, Olympia J. (R-ME)
Wicker, Roger F. (R-MS)

Independents
Lieberman, Joseph I. (ID-CT)
Sanders, Bernard (I-VT)

17 posted on 11/03/2010 9:38:39 AM PDT by deport
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To: pallis

Cornyn? That’s all we need


18 posted on 11/03/2010 9:53:12 AM PDT by personalaccts (Is George W going to protect the border?)
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To: tndarlin

It’s going to take three full election cycles if we are to turn around the ship of state. The people who made yesterday happen have to stay engaged, not return to hibernation. Not only can we do it, we have to do it.


19 posted on 11/03/2010 9:55:54 AM PDT by EDINVA
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To: EDINVA

Hell Yeah!


20 posted on 11/03/2010 9:57:29 AM PDT by tndarlin (If only the VRWC had ACORN, SOROS, SEIU, TIDES .....)
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